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Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River basin

  • Water Resources and the Regime of Water Bodies
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Abstract

In order to explore long-term evolution rule and future trend of runoff time series, and exactly detect its tendency and long-range correlation characteristics, runoff data covering 1952–2012 from 3 stations across the upper Fenhe River basin were analyzed. The moving average method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method were simultaneously applied to analyze the trend characteristics firstly. Then Rescaled Range analysis (R/S) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) methods were employed to research the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle of hydrological time series, they can systematically detect and overcome non-stationarity at all time scales. Finally, predict the future trend by combining the trend characteristics with the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle. The results illustrate the annual runoff series is non-linear, non-normal time series, and have 10 years non-periodic cycle length and noticeable descending trend. This descending trend will continue in a period time of future.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Water Resources Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, People’s Republic of China

    Xuehua Zhao & Xu Chen

  2. State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, People’s Republic of China

    Qiang Huang

Authors
  1. Xuehua Zhao
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  2. Xu Chen
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Correspondence to Xuehua Zhao.

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Zhao, X., Chen, X. & Huang, Q. Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River basin. Water Resour 44, 31–42 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807817010201

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807817010201

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