生体医工学
Online ISSN : 1881-4379
Print ISSN : 1347-443X
ISSN-L : 1347-443X
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心臓植え込み型デバイスの将来需要予測にみられる地域格差
島谷 哲史渡邉 英一鈴木 康之野村 泰伸清野 健
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2016 年 54Annual 巻 28PM-Abstract 号 p. S398

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As Japan is facing a super-aged society, growing medical expenses and doctor shortage have become major public health problems. To cope with these problems, it is important to forecast future demand of medical services and supplies. To provide an insight into such problems, we here investigate future demand for cardiac implantable electrical devices, such as pacemaker (PM) and implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). In this study, based on the analysis of past records of annual number of PM and ICD implantation from 2006 to 2014 in Japan, we build a predictive model to forecast the future number of PM and ICD implantation. In this model, age and gender composition rates of population are assumed to be explanatory variables. As an application of this model, we estimate the future demand of PM and ICD devices in each prefecture in Japan until 2040, and discuss regional differences.

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© 2016 社団法人日本生体医工学会
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