Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2012, 60(3), 9-18 | DOI: 10.11118/actaun201260030009

The analysis of long-term phenological data of apricot tree (Prunus armeniaca L.) in southern Moravia during 1927-2009

Hana Černá¹, Lenka Bartošová^1,2, Miroslav Trnka^1,2, Zdeněk Bauer¹, Petr Štěpánek³, Martin Možný⁴, Martin Dubrovský^2,5, Z. Žalud

¹ Ústav agrosystémů a bioklimatologie, Mendelova univerzita v Brně, Zemědělská 1, 613 00, Brno, Česká republika

² CzechGlobe, Centrum výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v. i., Akademie věd České republiky, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00, Brno, Česká republika

³ Český hydrometeorologický ústav, Oddělení meteorologie a klimatologie v Brně, Kroftova 43, 616 67, Brno, Česká republika

⁴ Český hydrometeorologický ústav, Observatoř Doksany, 411 82, Doksany, Česká republika

⁵ Ústav fyziky atmosféry, Akademie věd České republiky, Boční II-1401, 141 31, Praha, Česká republika

The relationship between apricot tree (Prunus armeniaca L., variety Velkopavlovická) phenophases first flower and full flowering was evaluated in south Moravia region (161 a.s.l., 48°48'22''N, 16°46'32''E). The phenological data originated from Phenological year books for period 1927-1960 and was collected at various sites in southern Moravia. During 1961-2009 the phenophases were observed by only one observer each year at one experimental site (Lednice).
The computer tool PhenoClim was used for calculation of the best combinations of temperature sum (T_S) and base temperature (T_base) as a predictors for onset of phenophases. Two different method of calculation was set - first is the thermal time model (TTM) and second use the simple sine wave method (SW method) of calculation T_S. With using the T_S and T_base values the onset of phenophases was calculated for future climate conditions (2050 and 2100).
The results showed firstly the reaction of phenophases to the changing climate during the last decades. The onset of first flower has advanced by 11.2 days since 1961. In the next step the most likely combination of T_S and T_base was set by PhenoClim. The relationship between observed and modeled phenophases was evaluated by statistical parameter RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) which moved between 1.8 to 6.9 days for two phenophases and different periods. In model the values of T_S and T_base were subsequently used for estimation of timing the phenophases of apricot tree in future climate conditions. The onset of first flower and full flowering of apricot tree could be advanced by 11-13 days in 2050 and by 22-25 in 2100.

Keywords: phenology, apricot tree, PhenoClim, base temperature, temperature sum

Grants and funding:

This paper is a result of the CzechGlobe Centre, which is being developed within OP RDI and cofinanced by EU funds and the state budget of the Czech Republic (Project: CzechGlobe - Centre for Global Climate Change Impacts Studies, Reg. No. CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0073). We also gratefully acknowledge the support of research plan MSM6215648905, Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change). The final stages of research were supported by project Partnership in Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies (No. CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056). The climate change scenarios were developer within the frame of project IAA300420806 funded by GAAV Grant Agency.

Received: March 5, 2012; Published: August 28, 2013  Show citation