Retirement timing in a future welfare state: a Finnish Delphi study

European welfare states, including Finland, have recently introduced reforms that aim to delay the average timing of retirement. The degree of success of these reforms will depend on future institutional and societal developments that influence retirement timing. The purpose of this paper is to identify such scenarios in the Finnish context.

The study employs the Delphi method by interviewing anonymous experts from a variety of relevant organisations and fields in Finland, then sending them a scaled on-line questionnaire from the initial findings to elicit views on the likelihood of different scenarios influencing retirement timing over the next 20 years.

While the experts perceived that a raised state pension age and a removal of early retirement options will inevitably delay retirement on average, multiple scenarios were believe to hinder this trend. These included domestic elderly care becoming more common, technology-induced restructuring of labour markets and shortening working weeks, all of which were associated with widening socioeconomic inequalities in retirement timing. The predicted inequalities were attributed to a polarisation concerning older workers’ abilities to extend their careers and to plan their retirement. The planned mass privatisation of health and social services in Finland was perceived to accelerate this outcome.

The study suggests that a significant policy challenge in face of upcoming societal trends is to make delayed retirement a more equally viable option.

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of scenario building for anticipating possible developments that may influence the success of policies aimed at delaying retirement.