Fashion forecasting: an overview from material culture to industry

Although writings in the fashion forecasting field often mention the connections between industry and culture, it still requires further clarifications in a context of uncertainty, fast pace changes and a high volume of information. This paper aims to explore fashion as a material culture to discuss forecasting roles in different stages of dialogue between culture and industry.

This paper explores the cultural aspects of fashion to discuss multiple roles of forecasting and its implications in the fashion system from a multidimensional perspective that interlaces culture and industry in contemporary contexts through a literature review in fashion forecasting and material culture. Recent nonacademic articles were also reviewed in order to highlight fresh perspectives in the field.

The literature review demonstrates that there are two main lines of reasoning in trend forecasting. First, trend forecasting as a cultural and predictive practice focused on understanding emerging shifts in the culture and translating them to the industry. The second approach considers trend forecasting as a strategic and curatorial practice that not merely predicts consumer's behaviors and preferences but intentionally acts as a filter of all the available possibilities curating and narrowing them down to organize the market around assertive information reducing financial losses risk. This article proposes an integration between the two perspectives – from culture to industry – in a contemporary context where consumers' tastes and preferences have become increasingly diverse, and early diffusion theories can no longer explain fashion spread.

Further investigations of contemporary and potential future trend forecasting roles and aspects could benefit from in-depth interviews and focus groups with industry experts, consumers and academics.

The paper intends to approximate theoretical reflections of fashion as a material culture to the current industry context.

It contributes to the studies of fashion forecasting, providing an overview of its development, roles and objectives, both from the industrial and material culture perspectives, which culminates in a framework that summarizes its intricate mechanisms.