Key indicators of rice production and consumption, correlation between them and supply-demand prediction

The purpose of this paper is to establish correlations among the input variables of production within themselves and input variables of consumption within themselves and to forecast the production and consumption of the rice.

The production and consumption of rice crop is governed by diverse variables. In the present study five key input variables for production of rice based on literature review and the authenticated data available from agricultural sources have been selected. These variables are area sown, agricultural workers (AW), area irrigated, growth rate and yield per hectare. On similar basis four key input variables responsible for consumption of rice are considered, namely, price of rice, population, poverty ratio and per capita net national product (NNP).

Correlation analysis showed that priority wise production of rice depends upon yield per hectare, percentage irrigation, AW and area sown. The growth rate is found to be having insignificant correlation with other variables of production and hence was omitted from subsequent study. Correlation analysis also showed that priority wise consumption depends upon whole sale price per ton, population and the per capita NNP. The poverty ratio is found to be having insignificant correlation with other variables of consumption and hence was omitted from subsequent study. The outcomes of the correlation analysis are utilized for designing rule base for fuzzy inference system (FIS) to forecast the production and consumption of the rice. Subsequently Bayesian technique is used to forecast production and consumption and its results are compared with the results of fuzzy inference analysis.

There are many techniques used for forecasting purpose but FIS and Bayesian technique outperform others. In the present study, the authors therefore focussed on these two techniques. Bayesian technique takes into account the expert opinion at the current conditions whereas FIS uses previously designed rule base. Besides discussing the appropriateness of these two techniques for forecasting production and consumption of rice, their forecasting outcomes will help in logistical and operational planning of the resources at national level, farmers’ level and traders’ level.