Building technology foresight: using scenarios to embrace innovation

The purpose of this paper is to describe the application of scenario planning methods to: identifying disruptive innovations at an early stage, mapping out potential development paths for such innovations, and building appropriate organizational capabilities.

A combination of scenario planning with technology road‐mapping, expert analysis and creative group processes. The techniques described can be integrated with traditional tools of strategic technology planning. The paper presents a short illustrative case study and examples from practice.

Scenario techniques can be successfully applied to analysing disruptive innovation.

Scenario techniques help guide managers to more effective decision making by preparing for a wide range of uncertainty and by counteracting typical biases of over‐optimism and decision “framing”. The techniques presented can be used in executive development and in strategic planning for innovative and high‐tech industries.

This paper presents a novel way to combine scenario methods with technology road‐mapping and creative group analysis. It also provides an overview of the literature and research related to scenario planning for disruptive innovation.