Exploring polarization and uniformity in sectors and inflows vis-à-vis growth: A study of Brazil-led and Mexico-led clusters in the region

The study aims to explore the sectoral contributions defined as agriculture, manufacturing and services value added, capital inflows defined as workers' remittances, foreign direct investment, official development assistance and domestic credit by banks as a proxy for financial deepening in Brazil-led, and Mexico-led clusters, and Latin America and the Caribbean region as a whole. The goal is to ascertain the polarization and uniformity effects of these parameters in shaping the growth and development in the midst of global financial crisis and economic challenges facing the region.

Using the classifications of Brazil-led cluster and Mexico-led cluster from Izquierdo and Talvi, the study is advanced using panel (pool) data estimation using the ARDL approach. The author used the augmented Solow framework to advance the study. He first established the desired cointegration vector for individual countries within the cluster, each cluster level and the region prior to pursuing the regression estimation. Both clusters were combined to represent the region. The author estimates the short-run (first-difference) and long-run effects of sectoral contributions and capital inflows in the region.

The region's capital productivity is driven by Brazil-led cluster. In phase 1 (sectoral shifts), polarization is noted in agriculture (dominated by Brazil-led cluster); and services (dominated by Mexico-led cluster). Uniformity exists in two clusters and the region with respect to manufacturing share where both clusters have almost equal (positive) dominance and hence exuding positive effects in the region. In phase 2, polarization is noted in remittances (dominated Brazil-led cluster), foreign direct investment (dominated by Mexico-led cluster) and financial development (dominated by Brazil-led cluster). Uniformity is noted in both clusters and the region from negative effects of official development assistance (ODA).

The study is fairly new and contemporary in its attempt to analyze the effects of sectoral shifts and capital inflows in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. Using the classification of Brazil-led cluster and Mexico-led cluster, it investigates the polarization and uniformity in the region with respect to these parameters. The study contributes to policy dialogue, and explores the emerging trends in key economic and structural factors of growth whilst highlighting some burgeoning issues shaping LAC's growth and development overall.