Is ROC analysis a tool that should replace probative analysis in studying lineups?

The purpose of this paper is to explain why ROC analysis is an inappropriate replacement for probative analysis in lineup research.

Taking as the medical example comparing two methods to detect the presence of a malignant tumor (Mickes et al., 2012), and operationally defining ROC analysis: radiologists are shown the results from two methods. Their confidence judgments create a graph of correct identifications by mistaken ones. The author can compare the methods on radiologists’ ability to differentiate sick from healthy. Lineup researchers create two distinct lineups. In target-present lineups, witnesses differentiate between the target and the foils, not the target and the innocent suspect. In target-absent lineups, witnesses cannot even differentiate between innocent suspects and foils, having seen none.

Eyewitness ROC curves are similar to probative analysis, but provide less useful information.

Researchers ware warned against using ROC when conducting lineup research.

Preventing inappropriate use of ROC analysis.