Recurrent neural networks are machine learning algorithms that are well suited to predict time series. Echo state networks are one specific implementation of such neural networks that can describe the evolution of dynamical systems by supervised machine learning without solving the underlying nonlinear mathematical equations. In this work, we apply an echo state network to approximate the evolution of two-dimensional moist Rayleigh-Bénard convection and the resulting low-order turbulence statistics. We conduct long-term direct numerical simulations to obtain training and test data for the algorithm. Both sets are preprocessed by a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) using the snapshot method to reduce the amount of data. Training data comprise long time series of the first 150 most energetic POD coefficients. The reservoir is subsequently fed by these data and predicts future flow states. The predictions are thoroughly validated by original simulations. Our results show good agreement of the low-order statistics. This incorporates also derived statistical moments such as the cloud cover close to the top of the convection layer and the flux of liquid water across the domain. We conclude that our model is capable of learning complex dynamics which is introduced here by the tight interaction of turbulence with the nonlinear thermodynamics of phase changes between vapor and liquid water. Our work opens new ways for the dynamic parametrization of subgrid-scale transport in larger-scale circulation models.

• Received 27 January 2021
• Revised 28 April 2021
• Accepted 30 April 2021

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.103.053107