Abstract
Severe falciparum malaria has substantially affected human evolution. Genetic association studies of patients with clinically defined severe malaria and matched population controls have helped characterise human genetic susceptibility to severe malaria, but phenotypic imprecision compromises discovered associations. In areas of high malaria transmission the diagnosis of severe malaria in young children and, in particular, the distinction from bacterial sepsis, is imprecise. We developed a probabilistic diagnostic model of severe malaria using platelet and white count data. Under this model we re-analysed clinical and genetic data from 2,220 Kenyan children with clinically defined severe malaria and 3,940 population controls, adjusting for phenotype mis-labelling. Our model, validated by the distribution of sickle trait, estimated that approximately one third of cases did not have severe malaria. We propose a data-tilting approach for case-control studies with phenotype mis-labelling and show that this reduces false discovery rates and improves statistical power in genome-wide association studies.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Footnotes
Introduction updated to clarify what is meant by true severe malaria. Analysis of parasite densities as a function of the model probabilities (Figure 3E). Additional simulation study in Appendix 12.