Regression Analysis for The Public Adherence to COVID-19 Preventive Protocol

This research was devoted to a test of the relationship between knowledge about the disease COVID -19 and the personal preventive measures by Pearson correlation and regression analysis. Data collection was carried out through a questionnaire distributed in Basra governorate and the number of participants was 1000 individuals. Cronbach Alpha coefficient to ensure the reliability of the was calculated and its value (0.735) indicates the reliability of the research tools. The demographic data and responses of the participants were statistically described and the null hypothesis was tested (there is no effect of knowledge about COVID-19 on people’s commitment with preventive protocol) using the spss program. The Pearson correlation coefficient was found to be 0.6 indicating positive correlation between the test variables. Regression analysis showed that the dependent variable ( Yi3 : Avoid touching the face, nose and eye with unclean hands or after touching surfaces and objects. ) is the most affected one in the personal prevention factors by the variables listed in the disease knowledge factor.


1-Introduction
The primary aim of science is the constant pursuit of knowledge and interpretation of the various relationships between phenomena by identifying the relationships between variables and to benefit from these relationships in scientific research.
The massive outbreak of COVID -19 around the world created a serious crisis in the health system all over the world (1). There is no vaccine or treatment for this dangerous infection and management is essentially supportive (2). Therefore the government around the world focused their effort toward preventing the infection from spreading by taking several administrative measures related to restricting mobilability and supporting compulsory home residency (3) . Educating people regarding the nature of the disease and its modes of transmission is crucially important (4).
Patients can spread the infection as long as symptoms persist and during the phase of clinical recovery. Infection is acquired by inhalation of droplets resulting from coughing and sneezing of infected individuals (5) . Also touching surfaces contaminated by these droplets and then touching the nose, mouth and eyes (6) .
There was a fluctuation in the number of infected individuals in Basra governorate since COVID-19 first positive case reported on 15th March 2020 as shown in table (I) (7). The outbreak of COVID-19 in Basra will not only affect the health of the population in the city but also will carry a significant economic crisis in the country (8) . Basra governorate is considered as Iraq's economic capital for its oil fields , fertile agriculture land and homing all the Iraqi six ports (9) . Accordingly , studying the viral spread , people's perception and preventive measures in this city is of a particular importance .

April/2020
The objective of the current investigation is to emphasize the role of knowledge and population perception about the disease on their commitment with the personal preventive protocol by using correlation and regression analysis.

2-The General linear to regression model
The regression analysis is the most important method used to determine the best functional relationship between the variables (10). It is shown in relationship (1) where the dependent variable y is a linear function to K from the independent variables X 1 , X 2 ,…, X K (11). Yi= ࢼ ା ࢼ + ࢼ + ⋯ + ࢼ + U ୧ ... (1) For a sample size n of the observations, the sample can be expressed above for each of the observations, so we get n from the equations as follows: U: the errors from degree (n × 1).
Using the least squares method OLS model parameters were estimated as in the formula (4) To measure compatibility quality, i.e. clarify the ratio of deviations the values of Y with respect to the total deviations, we used the determination parameter R 2 ߳ [0,1] where(12) :

3-The Research Methodology
The research methodology relied on the use of descriptive statistics to analyze the data. also we used the Pearson correlation coefficient to find the correlation between the study factors (13). Then we used regression analysis to formulate the appropriate regression equation for the data.

I. Descriptive statistics
The data of this research was collected in the first aspect of the study based on the questionnaire method. A questionnaire was prepared for the population in the governor of Basra in southern Iraq in the month of March with the period of spread of COVID-19 virus and after Iraq recorded infections in several regions. 1000 people from Basra were responded to The questionnaire .included a number of demographic variables, which are gender, age, and residential areas, as shown in Table (2).

A-Questionnaire variables
The questionnaire was found to study the association between two variables, namely health awareness among individuals and Infection preventive protocol. Individuals responded by relying on the Likert pentatonic scale (14,15), as in Table (3).

1) Health awareness among individuals factor (X):
In table (4) that belongs to the health awareness factor, that the lowest frequency is for the two levels ( D,SD) on the variables of this factor. This means that the people in Basra Governorate have enough awareness to overcome the Corona crisis. As a confirmation of this, table of response ratios according to levels (SA, A, MA, D,SD) was presented in Table (5). The proportion of people with awareness is 94.4% and represents a very large percentage. It is necessary to isolate those coming from outside Iraq to make sure that they are disease free.

2) Infection preventive protocol (Y):
Table (6) presents the variables in the Infection preventive protocol . In the table(7) we determined the percentages of people who do not follow the procedures necessary to prevent infection, It turns out that their percentage are(4, 0.9, 0.2)% for levels ( MA, D,SD) respectively, which is less than the percentage of people keen to take all preventive measures to avoid injury, i.e. 94.9 % of respondents are cautious about their dealings in life in the current period.

B-Reliability of the research tool
The Cronbach's Alfa coefficient was used for the internal consistency to ensure the ability of the study tool to measure the dimensions validate them (16,17). The importance of the Cronbach's Alfa coefficient for the internal consistency is the ability to measure the consistency of the response of the respondents to each of the questionnaire paragraphs. The high value of the alpha indicates the strength of the degree of internal stability, which ranges between (1-10 ) to be an acceptable value at (0.60) (18).The results of the Cronbach's Alpha coefficient came in at 74% for all paragraphs of the questionnaire, and this percentage indicates a good degree of study stability. Table (8) shows the Cronbach's Alfa coefficient for the search variables.

II-Discuss the results of Pearson correlation and Regression analysis of the data
The null hypothesis is H 01 : The health awareness factor has no effect on adherence to prevention measures.
It was found that the value of correlation coefficient 0.64 at sig(0.01) (19), this means that there is a positive relationship between the level of health awareness in people and the prevention of COVID-19 disease, meaning that the more it increases Health  Regression analysis was used to find out which variables in the Personal infection prevention protocol (Y) are mostly related to the variables the knowledge about COVID-19 in factor (X) as shown in Table (10). It can be seen that the variable Y i3 is the most closely related to the health awareness factor among individuals by having the highest R value (21,22).
Thus we adopted the variables in the hypothesis test H 01 as shown in Table (11).

The variables Y i3
Avoid touching the face , nose and eye with unclean hands or after touching surfaces and objects .

Dependent variable X i1
It is necessary to adhere to the prevent protocol by avoiding crowded places and leaving home only for necessary situations It is necessary to isolate those coming from outside Iraq to make sure that they are disease free.

Independent variable X i3
Using internet for communication in studies and work from home to avoid gathering . The results of the regression analysis were illustrated in table (12) and obtained by the spss program (23). The correlation coefficient of the dependent variable Y i3 with the independent variables is 0.534 and the determination coefficient is 0.282 i.e. the independent variables explain 28% of the variance in the dependent variable (Avoid touching the face , nose and eye with unclean hands or after touching surfaces and objects ).  (13) , the regression is statistically significant as p-value is less than 0.05 . This finding leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis and approving that there is a relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables, as the dependent variable can be predicted depending on the independent variables (24) .

4-Conclusion
In this research , descriptive statistics were used to illustrate the demographic data of the participants and summarizing their responses . It has been found that 94.4% of the population are aware of the dangerous nature of the disease and its modes of transmission. Also .Correlation analysis showed a positive relationship between the two research variables equals to 0.6 indicating that 60 % of people have a good knowledge and committed with the preventive protocol while 40% of the did not follow the preventive protocol despite their good knowledge with the disease which accounts for increasing the number of positive cases . Regression analysis showed that the variable related to avoiding contact surfaces is the most affected by the independent variables in the category of knowledge about the disease .

5-Recommendations
People's adherence to the preventive protocol is the key for stopping the disease outbreak. It is strongly recommended that the government impose strict measures such as high taxis to those who break the protocol and the crisis management decisions . Also , wearing gloves and face masks should be compulsory to those obligated to work or go out home.