Abstract
Nowadays, it's an urgent task for all mankind to maintain sustainable development in all aspects. In terms of resources, it's necessary for every country to ensure its sustainable and secure supply to meet the needs of productivity and living. This paper applied Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) to quantify the supply risk of China's aluminum resource, and quantitatively measures the contribution degrees of recycled aluminum on the basis of forecast of primary aluminum demand and recycled aluminum supply. The main results show that there exists increasingly serious supply risk, and the primary aluminum demands of China are respectively 3500, 3600 and 3300 ten thousand tons, the amounts of recycled aluminum supply are 1000, 1200 and 1100 ten thousand tons in 2020, 2025 and 2030. The contribution degree of recycled aluminum supply on total aluminum consumption demand is predicted to be around 25% in the near future. The another contribution degree of recycled aluminum supply on total guarantee degree is more than 10% at the comparison foundation of the year 2016, and it is expected to increase to above 20%. Besides, the cyclic utilization of aluminum scrap will obtain better economic and environmental benefits. Therefore, the cyclic utilization of waste resource is an inevitable tendency.
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