Newly Industrialized Countries: Is There an Alternative to the Golden Billion?

In order to identify the features of economic development and the historical fate of new industrial countries (NIC), an econometric analysis of their strategies and development dynamics since 1950 was carried out based on the parameters of real GDP growth rates and their standard deviation. 6 types of development were identified. The dynamics of development for 8 economic cycles and paired correlations between countries are estimated. 4 waves of growth rates and 5 waves of MSD were revealed. It is hypothesized that the correlation of growth rates shows the similarity of countries in their use of opportunities, and the correlation of MSD shows that of their responses to threats. Connection graphs are constructed and 3 clusters of countries with similar historical destinies are obtained as a result of the analysis. It is recorded that there are 3 groups of 11 countries with a similar development strategy. The other 10 have no development analogues. Determined: China applies import substitution and export strategies, it can become the leader of the NIC and compete with the global dominance of the OECD countries; the post-industrial development of the NIC cannot be based on a liberal, import-substituting or export strategy. As an alternative, a strategy for improving the living standards is proposed.


Introduction
The problem that this study aims to solve is whether there is an alternative to the "Golden billion" countries among the new industrial countries: by the type of economic development and by the multiplicity of centers of economic growth? What economic policies do these countries pursue and what strategy do they follow? Are there any prospects for NIC economic unions that can compete with the OECD countries?
International science and technology conference "Earth science" IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 666 (2021) 062093 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/666/6/062093 3 that the economic success of Asian NIC was made possible by their reliance on market incentives that ensured efficient resource allocation [16,17,18].
In contrast to the neoclassical approach, the "revisionist" approach focuses on the active role of the state. R. Wade identifies three determining factors in which active state intervention was manifested: capital accumulation, protectionist policy, and selective industrial policy [19]. Alice Amsden builds on his approach to the analysis of the economic development of Asian economies based on the concept of the countries of "late industrialization". The process of late industrialization is based on catch-up development (flying geese pattern), which is supplemented by national characteristics of the industrialization process. in the case of East Asian countries, this is an active role of the state (along with subsidies issued to East Asian enterprises and banks, certain standards were set that they had to meet in production, export activities, and later in R&D) [20].
In the early 1990s, publications began to appear in which the authors argued that the strategy based on export orientation and cheap labor had reached its limits. Increased wages led to the shift of laborintensive industries and to the reallocation of FDI flows in favor of China and Southeast Asian countries, while more high-tech production continued to rely on technology imports from Japan and the United States, which led observers to call all this "growth without development" [21].
The nature of the economic growth of Asian NIC also remains relevant. In their work A. Young, P. Krugman, J. Kim, L. Lau econometrically prove that the basis of economic growth in Asian NIC is not an increase in total factor productivity (TFP), or technological change, but an increase in the volume of used factors of production [22].
Sergeev V. M., Alekseenkova E. S., Nechaev V. D. [23] distinguish among the national models of innovative development, innovative models of countries belonging to the NIC. For example, models based on the East Asian type (South Korea, Hong Kong) differ significantly from the North Atlantic model. Innovation systems based on this model are almost completely devoid of the component of fundamental science (and partly of applied science). Being focused on the export of high-tech products, East Asian countries tend to borrow the technologies themselves from countries following the North Atlantic model. Another type of innovation system is represented by countries such as Thailand and Chile. Thailand's innovation system focuses on the development of the tourism industry, innovative methods in this area, as well as other industries that generate significant revenues and ensure rapid economic growth. Chile's innovation system is aimed at developing agriculture, and its share continues to grow. In addition to agriculture (and new technologies for processing agricultural products), the Chilean economy is now based on forestry, fisheries, services, and education. Special attention is paid to the development of transport and communications, as well as telecommunications and information technologies.
Our previous research shows that inter-civilizational competition between territories occurs not only among themselves, but also with corporations and non-profit organizations of political orientation, including foreign States [24,25]. In these competitive conditions of national and subnational territories, the following models of economic development of regions are applicable: region-market territory providing infrastructure services to any investors (liberal strategy of effective development), regionquasi-state management of the territory itself becomes the subject of a self-sufficient development (strategy of import substitution and integrated development), region-quasi-corporation management uses competitive advantages of its territory for penetration in other areas (national strategy for sustainable development), the region-society management is focused on meeting the needs of its own population (strategy quality of life and harmonious development). From this point of view, NIC implement only quasi-state and quasi-corporation models. In fact, liberal and socially-oriented models do not provide advanced industrial development.

Problem statement
In order to refute or confirm the above hypotheses about types, motels, strategies, and "waves" of development, as well as to empirically test the above phenomena, this study aims to quantify the features of economic development in selected countries. The main attention is focused on the analysis of economic growth and economic risks of the studied countries. If the most important indicator of growth is traditionally considered to be the growth rate of real GDP, then research on the risks of economic development of countries does not have such a consolidated opinion of the scientific community.

Scientific Relevance of the Issue with a Brief Review of the Reference Material. Theory
Haertfelder M., Lozovskaya E., and Hanush E. distinguish four groups of methods for assessing country risks in the analysis of the securities market [26]: 1. Qualitative evaluation methods. It is based on expert opinions. 2. Quantitative assessment methods. Based on known country statistics, the most significant indicators in the country's development that affect the risk assessment are selected, or risk factors.
3. Combined methods of country risk assessment: models based on both qualitative and quantitative information: 4. Structural-qualitative (factor) method for the statistical evaluation of country risk. The method is based on an expert study of two risk characteristics: the probability of occurrence and the amount of losses, i.e. risks are weighted by the probability of a particular scenario.
Examples of country risk assessment methodologies are shown in Table 1.

Table1. Methods for assessing macroeconomic risk.
Method name, author Methodological grounds

Country Risk Service [27]
The methodological basis of the study is a combined approach: the model includes 60 questions -30 qualitative and 30 quantitative ones. Based on the results of the assessment, three main indices are compiled: sovereign risks, currency risks and banking sector risks, as well as two additional ones: political and structural and economic risks.

2.
International Country Risk [28] List and score scale of indicators that make up the economic risk assessment index: − GDP per capita for the current year (0-5); − real GDP growth (0-10); − annual inflation rate (0-10); − budget balance (0-10); − trade balance of the country (0-15) 3. The BERI index [29],   [30] Country risk is the ratio between the profitability of the stock market in a particular country and the profitability of the stock market in the rest of the world. The calculation uses current data on stock indexes of countries presented on the Wall Street Journal website. 5. Institutional investor's Country Credit Rating and Euromoney's Country Risk Index (each covering more than 100 countries) [31] In these ratings, country risk is assessed by a combined set of economic indicators. Euromoney's Country Risk Index evaluates countries based on 9 parameters, and each of them has a certain weight in the overall rating. In general, the Euromoney rating characterizes the country's economic ability to pay its debts.
Most methods of country risk assessment serve the interests of foreign investors: strategic (financial and real sectors), speculative or conservative stock markets, but do not allow us to solve the problem of this study. In this regard, for the purposes of this study, we have chosen the classic method of estimation for technical analysiscalculating the mean square deviation (hereinafter -MSD) of profitability. In our case, the yield is taken as an indicator of the initial economic growth: the growth rate of real GDP. This tandem of indicators allows us to assess economic development by two parameters (growth and risk) in comparable units, in fact, fixing the differences between countries in the effectiveness and sustainability of economic development.
Source data for analysis: for countries of the world -The Conference Board, Total Economy Database [32], for the USSR -the Angus Maddison Historical Statistics database [33], for the whole world the above-mentioned Angus and World Bank data are used [34]. The world GDP growth rate is analyzed for Angus up to 2008, and for the World Bank data since 2008. The periods for analysis are selected taking into account the world economic crises. A total of 8 periods are allocated: 1951-1958, 1959-1967, 1968-1975, 1976-1982, 1983-1991, 1992-1998, 1999-2009, from 2010 to 2019

Research results
Real GDP growth rates and standard deviations are calculated for the selected periods. The results of calculations are summarized in Table 2 and 3.   Figure 1 shows the growth rates of real GDP (hereinafter referred to as GR) and the MSD of the growth rates of real GDP (hereinafter referred to as MSD) of the studied countries in 1950-2019. According to the ratio of growth rates and risks, there are 6 groups:  high risks and GR -Chinathe new potential hegemon of global economic development, applies both industrial development strategies simultaneously: export and import substitution,  high risks, medium GR -Iran, Nigeria -OPEC countriesapply export strategy for raw materials,  medium risk, rapid growth -"Asian tigers"the export strategy of the industrial products,  average risk, low growththe USSR and Latin Americastrategy of import substitution,  low risks, medium GRunderutilization of growth opportunities in India, South Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
At the same time, the old industrial countries include South Africa, the USSR-Russia and Argentina because of low economic growth rates, and South Africa that also belongs to the group of low risks (unused growth opportunities).
The effective development line (minimum risk with fixed growth or maximum growth with fixed risk) runs along the points of the countries like China, Taiwan, Thailand, Egypt, India, and Pakistan. Inefficient development covers countries China, Nigeria, USSR-Russia with the exception of old industrial countries: China, Nigeria, Chile. It is obvious that over this long period of time, China has demonstrated both maximum growth and maximum risks with the consistent use of several development strategies. In the course of the study, a correlation analysis of the growth rates and MSD of the growth rates of countries by periods of economic cycles was carried out. Significant correlation coefficients are shown in Tables 4 and 5.
On the basis of the revealed significant positive correlations, graphs of countries' relations by growth rates and risks are constructed ( Fig. 11 and 12). The fact that these graphs overlap made it possible to create clusters of the history of NIC (Fig. 13). The correlation is significant at the level of 0.01 with a value of more than 0.835, and at the level of 0.05 it is more than 0.707.  1951-1958 1959-1967 1968-1975 1976-1982 1983-1991 1992-1998 1999-2009   In these clusters, you can identify pairs of countries with the closest ties to each other as cluster cores. The results of this grouping show the following clusters: