Abstract
Owing to changing climate conditions, this study analyses potential hydro-climatic trends for the most recent 60 years (1956–2015). The study area is situated in the mountain basin of the Dunajec River in the Polish Carpathians. The focus of the study was to evaluate multi-annual trends in mean monthly river flow for each season of the year as well as to compare the direction of these trends with potential trends in seasonal values of surface air temperature and precipitation. An increase in minimum flow(p<0.05) during the winter was identified for sites located along the upper and middle course of the Dunajec River, while no trends in winter flow were found at the studied lower-course site. An increase in spring flow is significant (p<0.1, weak evidence) at the upper-course site only. Moreover, an increase in maximum flow was found for autumn at the studied middle-course and downstream sites (p<0.05 and p<0.1, respectively). Increasing trends in mean and maximum air temperature (p<0.005) were identified for the spring and summer, together with an increase in minimum summer air temperature (p<0.005). Precipitation shows an increasing tendency in maximum values for spring, but a decrease in minimum values for summer (p<0.05), as well as a decrease in maximum values for winter (p<0.1). Overall, the revealed trends imply discernible, multi-annual changes in hydro-climatic conditions for the studied mountain basin.
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