Learning from the future: mainstreaming disruptive solutions for the transition to sustainable food systems


 We comment on one of the scientific paradoxes of our times in the field of global studies on food: the influential scenario studies that call for new paradigms for the global food system are themselves locked into a past solution space. We posit that the extrapolation of past solution spaces into the future runs the risk of restricting the modelled scenarios to futures that are very similar to the status quo. We propose a novel complementary approach to scenario building, which we provocatively refer to as “Learning from future successes”: identifying and studying existing, successful early exemplars of disruptively novel farming systems that have independently reconfigured, and as such ‘break the rules’ of the relationships between the agronomic, environmental, economic and entrepreneurial variables commonly modelled in global food studies. By analyzing these existing exemplars, we can reconstruct their transition pathways as the basis to examine futures for regional and global food systems that are simultaneously radically progressive, yet proven to be attainable and desirable. Using disruptive exemplars as the starting point, we may discover novel sets of drivers of the future (e.g., cultural diversity, trust, gender relations), that have thus far eluded past experiences and trends. Drawing also from imagination and creativity, this approach broadens the gamut of possible pathways and people’s agency to shape desired futures. We illustrate our approach with three international initiatives: the Global Network of Lighthouse Farms, Agroecological Lighthouses, and Seeds of Good Anthropocenes. All three networks have identified and brought together existing early exemplars of disruptive farming and food systems; together they demonstrate complementary applications of our approach, namely: 1) the redesign of future farming systems, 2) the illumination of pathways for scaling disruptive systems, and 3) the formulation of narratives and visions that are inspirational and that incentivize change.


The edge of our known solution space
Keeping the food system within environmental limits (Springmann et al 2018), specifically reversing the food system-driven transgression of the planetary boundaries of land, water, biodiversity, nutrient loading, and climate change (Rockström et al 2020), requires novel approaches for envisaging and realizing radically progressive yet attainable futures. Scenario building, supported by quantitative models or qualitative scenario narratives, is useful to explore the tangible consequences of different courses of action in a pragmatic and useful way for food and climate policy, as exemplified by the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) models (European Commission 2011) and explorations of future land use in the face of climate change (e.g. Gomes et al 2020) However, modelbased scenarios are typically built, parameterized and calibrated using a limited number of drivers of change (e.g. population growth, commodity prices) (Raudsepp-Hearne et al 2020) and known relationships between those drivers (e.g. the trade-offs and synergies between the delivery of commodities and public goods) (Verburg et al 2008, De Vries et al 2013, O'Neill et al 2014, Gomes et al 2020 (figure 1). Elements of the global food system that are either more distal or inherently more difficult to model quantitatively (e.g. different forms of governance) are commonly considered out of scope or are assumed, explicitly or implicitly, to be constant. Such scenario analyses are therefore confined to new permutations and combinations of drivers and interventions within the terra cognita of the known solution space and as such cannot account for disruptive solutions that defy known relationships between model variables.
This leads us to one of the scientific paradoxes of our times: the contemporary and influential scenario analyses that call for new paradigms for the global food system are themselves locked into a past solution space. The implications of this stretch well beyond the academic domain, as demonstrated by the European Commission's recent critique of its own CAPRI model, lamenting its inability to explore the full impact of the new EU Farm-to-Fork policy proposals (European Commission 2021). There is clearly a need for complementary approaches that can expand the search horizon of our future solution space beyond already well-explored drivers. In this perspective paper, we put forward one such complementary approach, which we provocatively refer to as 'learning from the future': the assessment of operational farming systems and food systems that are early successful exemplars of sustainable futures that transcend the horizons of the currently known solution space (figure 2). By illuminating nascent methodologies that support the imagining, anticipating, and planning of desired equitable, resilient, and sustainable futures that explicitly include disruptive, hitherto unexplored solutions, we seek to enrich and contribute to the ongoing scientific discourse on food system transformations.

Learning from the past and learning from the future
The identification of early exemplars of disruptive solutions complements current scenario modelling (based on 'learning from the past') by allowing us to disentangle and understand the reconfigured relationships between the agronomic, environmental, economic and entrepreneurial variables of these   figure 1; some of the disruptive solutions lie outside the horizons of the currently known solution space of most scenario models. In this approach, the analysis (vertical box) focusses on the elucidation of the reconfigured relationships (dotted lines) between variables, shared in common by the early exemplars of disruptive solutions. existing exemplars. In general, disruptive exemplars are farming and food systems that have reconfigured, and as such redefine, our understanding and management of at least one or more dimensions of sustainability, pertaining to natural resources, ecological processes, biodiversity conservation, economics, equity or social justice. The characterization of disruptiveness does not require us to wait for the outcomes of retrospective analyses: exemplars can be identified as disruptive by virtue of the path they follow in creating radically different operating models from the status quo (Christensen et al 2015).
The extent to which a disruptive exemplar leads to scaling and widespread adoption is difficult to predict; this in itself is not a precondition for being disruptive. As such, the analysis of disruptive exemplars serves a wider purpose that goes beyond a mere retrospective exercise with limited relevance for understanding current and emerging societal dynamics (Hopster 2021). One such exemplar is the agroecological symbiosis piloted in Finland, in which the generation of on-farm bioenergy from green manure is combined with precision fertilization, resulting in a concomitant increase in the production area of cash crops for human consumption (Koppelmäki et al 2019). As such, this novel production system has overcome the food-fuel competition for land that is implicitly assumed in, inter alia, the CAPRI scenario analyses by the European Commission that informed European biofuel policies (Blanco et al 2013). It has allowed for the generation of new models for foodfuel integration at farm scale (Koppelmäki et al 2019), regional scale (Koppelmäki et al 2021a) and up to national and international scales (Koppelmäki et al 2021b). The resulting scenarios for the cycling of biomass, nutrients and energy are complementary to existing scenarios (such as the CAPRI analyses) and serve to widen the search area for future farming systems beyond the horizons of the current solution space , as we have visualized in figure 2.
By reconstructing how these disruptive exemplars emerged over time, we may identify transition pathways towards alternative futures that lie outside the currently known solutions space. This allows us to examine and delineate the financial, technical, knowledge and cultural gaps that must be bridged for scaling disruptive solutions. Collectively, these gaps have been referred to as the gap between scientific knowledge ('thinking solutions') and implementation ('doing solutions'), or 'think-do-gap' (O'Sullivan et al 2018). The explicit analysis of think-do-gaps facilitates the discovery of novel sets of drivers of the future (e.g. cultural diversity, trust, gender relations) that have thus far eluded past experiences and trends (Raudsepp-Hearne et al 2020). By building new ways of thinking about the future that also draw from imagination and creativity, this approach broadens the gamut of possible pathways and people's agency to shape desired futures (Wyborn et al 2020).
Since disruptive exemplars offer novel suggestions of ways forward, they may introduce tradeoffs with other benefits or lead to other unforeseen problems as disruptive exemplars grow in scale or inspire disruptions in novel environments. For example, we find that many of the disruptive farming systems are associated with complex managerial and knowledge requirements. This demand for significant inputs of knowledge and labour creates a barrier (or think-do-gap) for immediate widespread adoption (e.g. Koppelmäki et al 2021a). The unintended outcomes of scaling disruptive solutions may be negated through an iterative application of the two approaches: the study of disruptive exemplars can invoke the formulation of new models, which may subsequently be used to explore plausible scaling scenarios within the new, and expanded, solution space. In table 1, we elaborate on the complementarity of the two approaches.

Glimpses of sustainable futures
Three initiatives-the Global Network of Lighthouse Farms, Agroecological Lighthouses, and Seeds of Good Anthropocenes-illustrate how 'learning from the future' can be applied and scaled to support societal transformation via different pathways: by changing institutions, rules and policies (scaling up); supporting replication of disruptive exemplars (scaling out); and changing narratives, values and ideas (scaling deep) (table 2; Moore et al 2015). These initiatives have developed independently and bring together disruptive exemplars known to the authors.
Other recent examples of disruptive agronomic innovations include strip-cropping, which overcomes the trade-offs between crop diversity and crop yields (Ditzler et al 2021), or technology-driven innovations such as the use of LED lights to control both crop physiology and pest behaviour (Lazzarin et al 2021), vertical farming, algae production, entomophagy and plant-based meats (see e.g. Smith 2013, Semov and Sweet 2021 for early and contemporary exemplars, respectively, of the societal discourse on the need for, and scaling of, disruptive solutions).

Scaling up
The Global Network of Lighthouse Farms (www. lighthousefarmnetwork.com) serves as a global outdoor laboratory on future farming systems by bringing together existing 'successful exemplars of disruptively innovative farming systems (i.e. lighthouse farms) that are proving to be economically, environmentally and socially sustainable and as such already rising to the multiple challenges of a shared future that is food secure, nutritious, sustainable and resilient.' Each of these lighthouse farms has already uniquely redefined at least one dimension of sustainability. While individual lighthouse farms may be continuously evolving and as of yet be imperfect, as a network they have unveiled the diversity of context-specific solutions available, which allows for the study of the common ingredients that these reconfigured systems share. The Global Network of Lighthouse Farms is scaling up the redesign of future farming systems by influencing policy-making and major funding schemes. For example, 'lighthouse farms' feature strongly in the recommendations of the European Commission's Mission Board on Soil Health and Food, which was created to co-inform the formulation of Horizon Europe, the 7 year Research Funding Programme of the European Union with a budget of 94.4 billion euro. The Mission seeks to go beyond 'the traditional linear vision of research' by setting up networks of 'lighthouses' to showcase farms that are 'exemplary in terms of providing sustainably produced, healthy food, feed or fibre as well as ecosystem services linking rural and urban communities' (Veerman et al 2020).

Scaling out
The second example, Agroecological Lighthouses, exemplifies 'learning from the future' by using similarly existing disruptive exemplars to illuminate pathways for amplifying agroecological transformation from the farm to the territorial scale Altieri 2018, McGreevy et al 2021). Agroecological lighthouses have already overcome the multiple challenges of translating agroecological principles into practical strategies for soil, water, and biodiversity management to enhance production and resilience (see Wezel et al 2009 for a review of the use of the term agroecology in science and practice). These agroecological farms outperform other farms based on indicators such as soil quality and crop health (Nicholls et al 2004). As a network, Agroecological Lighthouses have allowed for the discovery of key ingredients that take agroecology to scale (Mier y Terán Giménez Cacho et al 2018). For example, farmer-to-farmer knowledge transfers have proven to be an effective avenue to scale out to the broader rural communities and have indeed resulted in the reconfiguration of entire territories (McGreevy et al 2021).

Scaling deep
The third initiative, Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (https://goodanthropocenes.net), focusses on effecting change by building radically novel narratives of desirable futures based on existing bright spots and 'seeds' . Bright spots are places that are performing substantially better than the norm (de Vries 2005, Frei et al 2018, while seeds may be social initiatives, new technologies, economic tools, or socialecological projects that appear to be contributing to the creation of a future that is just, prosperous, and sustainable. Seeds are drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values and regions that can accelerate transformative change beyond incremental improvements (Bennett et al 2016). A key way in which Seeds of Good Anthropocenes incentivize systems change is by changing narratives, beliefs, and ideas-a form of scaling deep (Moore et al 2015).

Conclusion
Within the context of the ongoing scientific and societal debate on the need to transform the global food system, 'Learning from the future' provides a novel complementary approach for thinking radically different yet realistically about the future. Identifying and studying disruptive exemplars (e.g. lighthouse farms and seeds) offers a viable approach for investigating how our world could intentionally follow transformative pathways, within a context of biotic, abiotic and economic shocks. While scenarios are useful in examining contrasts among alternative sets of assumptions about how the world changes through time, they are often based on highly simplified worldviews dominated by just a few driving forces (Bennett et al 2016). Extrapolating current trends into the future runs the risk of resulting in scenarios that are very similar to the status quo. Learning from future successes complements this approach by considering disruptive systems into radically different future scenarios. Disruptive exemplars provide the research and extension infrastructure to facilitate the mainstreaming of disruptive solutions, while also showing inspirational visions and illuminating multiple pathways to achieve a series of desirable futures.

Data availability statement
No new data were created or analysed in this study.