‘I was born here, I will die here’: climate change and migration decisions from coastal and insular Guinea-Bissau

ABSTRACT This paper shows how coastal and island peoples of Guinea-Bissau continue to prefer staying put over migrating when faced with manifestations of climate change and environmental disrepair. This reaction contradicts widely held interpretations of climate migration, which emphasize anti-immigrant sentiments and border regimes. We examine how historically marginalized Bissau-Guineans respond to slow-onset climate and environmental events in the face of political jeopardy and inadequate governance. We find that while their most pressing livelihood challenges remain politically unaddressed, they mobilize collectively in the absence of state support. While seasonal and temporary migration improves households' conditions, communal togetherness and bonding reinforce a vital sense of security, allowing them to stay put. Coping with present and future climate and environmental changes depends on whether or not people's lives continue to be undermined through the creation and reproduction of vulnerability. To overcome the long-standing socio-economic and political dysfunctions overwhelming Bissau-Guineans, we highlight the urgency for an overturn of the state’s attitudes and actions; of the dependency and cultural asymmetries by Western practices; and of the unjust support of civil society. Failure to provide basic requirements of good governance, self-reliance and communal support may no longer enable people to stay where they wish to.


Introduction
A heated debate at COP27 focused on the morality of denying or delaying reparation for irreversible loss and damage.This issue once again placed the matter of financing as a significant political and emotional feature of global climate justice and brought Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) to the forefront of international attention.Hence, any contextual analysis of the reasons why people move or stay put is of critical importance.This paper adds to the theoretical landscape of climate migration/mobilities by taking a people-centred and people-led approach on the factors that determine migration decisions in Guinea-Bissau's coastal and island areas.
SIDS have become icons of unjust disappearance.Their desperate peoples, already crossing borders, have captivated the public, media, and political imagination (Høeg and Tulloch 2019;Steffens 2019).These perspectives obscure the multitude of individual stories behind migration, thus perpetuating the practice of Othering (Baldwin 2013).This is evident in the discriminatory and unwelcoming treatment of migrants (Udah and Singh 2019).
Despite contradictory evidence and ongoing debates about potential underlying causes (Sherbinin et al. 2022), depictions of climate change-induced migration persist (International Rescue Committee 2021; Lustgarten 2020).Yet several empirical case studies on community perceptions of climate change in the context of migration challenge that this is the primary cause of human mass movement (Ayeb-Karlsson and Uy 2022; Farbotko and McMichael 2019;Parsons and Nielsen 2020;Wiegel et al. 2021).They demonstrate that climate change is only one of many factors that can influence migration and non-migration.Although this is widely acknowledged in the literature on climate migration/ mobilities (Boas et al. 2022), many researchers fail to question (Sherbinin et al. 2022), which is why climate change continues to overshadow all other factors (Kelman 2014).This also reflects a lack of empirical evidence focusing on people (Ayeb-Karlsson and Uy 2022), in various contexts.
Available studies on SIDS mostly focus on the Caribbean, Pacific and Indian Ocean regions (Kelman et al. 2017;Mortreux and Barnett 2009;Stancioff et al. 2018;Farbotko 2022).There appears to be no substantial study examining (non-)migration decisions in the context of climate change in any of the four continental SIDS, namely Belize, Guyana, Suriname and Guinea-Bissau.This study fills this gap by focusing on the coastal and island communities 1 of Guinea-Bissau.While slow-onset events impose additional pressures on livelihoods, we find that people's long-term exposure to poverty and inequality is primarily responsible for their current struggles.However, this is counterbalanced by their self-reliance and strong cohesion, in their efforts to improve their living conditions.These communal strategies, as well as individual and household efforts, enable them to stay put.
This study takes an ethnographic and narrative inquiry approach and applies unstructured and semi-structured questions to examine two critical perspectives on climate change perceptions.First, we assess how state and non-state actors, with powers to influence local livelihood outcomes, perceive climate change and its potential impact on the well-being of communities already coping with significant stresses and unsafe conditions.Second, we examine how local populations perceive and experience climate and non-climate factors, as well as the extent to which these judgments influence their (non-)migration decisions.
Despite poverty-shaped livelihoods, countered with seasonal migration from some households, a significant majority currently choose to stay by trusting their own self-reliance and mobilizing collectively, until changing conditions endanger their survival.This analysis adds to the growing body of literature tackling climate exceptionalism.It provides a detailed explanation of why the creation and reproduction of vulnerability undermines people's aspirations and capabilities.

Climate migration: towards an interdisciplinary inevitability
Media and political fascination over SIDS, as symbols of climate desperation, (Høeg and Tulloch 2019) distort examination of the many frailties challenging community livelihoods.For example, Western conceptions of Tuvalu's rising shorelines and images of fleeing Tuvaluans exhibit ignorance towards the deep cultural importance of the islanders' identities and agency (Farbotko 2010).Such superficial outlooks compete with critiques over the numbers of climate migrants (Kelman 2019;Durand-Delacre et al. 2021), along with empirical evidence demonstrating the array of contextual factors rendering climate change-driven migration highly subjective (Stancioff et al. 2018;Ahsan et al. 2022;Zickgraf 2019;Parsons and Nielsen 2020).If the factors determining the vulnerability of individuals, groups and entire populations are not thoroughly examined or accepted as susceptible to change over time (Thomas et al. 2019), they risk having their fate determined by external interpretations of their realities (Baldacchino 2018).
This paper integrates climate migration/mobility scholarship with broader migration and disaster theory to overcome such climate determinism.First, it supports recent calls to combine the first two fields of study (Boas et al. 2022;Sherbinin et al. 2022) whose disconnect has led to an overemphasis on climate change and the environment, whilst overlooking a variety of factors that influence migration and non-migration decisions (Schutte et al. 2021).In their review paper, Sherbinin et al. (2022) criticize research for frequently departing from an investigation into the role of the climate and the environment in lieu of recognizing 'other processes beyond environmental conditions like cumulative causation, structural factors, or political economic factors that condition migration decision-making' (Sherbinin et al. 2022, 9).Making that choice by relying on poor research design, and simplistic causal explanations, has long been acknowledged as inherently problematic (Castles 2002;Kelman 2014).
These critical voices motivated this empirical work in Guinea-Bissau to widen the focus on the factors leading to deprivation of needs, rights, and freedoms (Nicholson 2014).These factors, which emerged from the views and everyday experiences of respondents, can be characterized as creating unsafe conditions: 'the specific forms in which vulnerability of a population is expressed in time and space in conjunction with a hazard' (Wisner, Cannon, and Davis 2014, 55).
To overcome climate migration myths and advance climate (non-)migration/(im)mobilities theory, an increasing number of studies place people's perspectives and experiences at the forefront (Kelman et al. 2017;Parsons and Nielsen 2020;Steimanis, Mayer, and Vollan 2021;Wiegel et al. 2021).This research follows suit.Incorporating migration theory concerned with the interrelationship between decision-making, aspirations and capabilities (Castles 2010;Haas 2021;Czaika, Bijak, and Prike 2021) we examine what enables or inhibits individuals to decide to move or remain in place.
Connected to this is the way in which unsafe conditions deprive individuals of attaining their aspirations and capabilities.This places disaster theory and the study of vulnerability as an indispensable theoretical framework (Bankoff and Hilhorst 2022).Hazards should be evaluated in conjunction with the factors that create and reproduce vulnerability (Wisner, Cannon, and Davis 2014).Our view is that by evaluating the root causes of vulnerability in conjunction with people's aspirations and capabilities, decisions to move or stay put have the potential to be understood without undermining or prioritizing any factors.We expand this study beyond the factors that deprive individuals, groups and entire communities to expose how such limitations lead people to mobilize to overcome their struggles.

Conceptual challenges and choices
Migration is defined as the voluntary or involuntary movement, across or within borders, for long or short distances, temporarily or indefinitely.Depending on needs and desires, migration decisions can be taken individually or in groups (e.g. at the household level), forcefully or voluntarily.Decision-making is influenced by a set of interconnected dimensions of aspirations and capabilities (Haas 2021).These are volatile in the sense that a person's aspirations may alter over the course of their lifetime and their future capabilities may be determined by a set of dynamic factors.Time scales of migration (i.e.whether a person leaves permanently or temporarily) are difficult to ascertain (Kelman 2019).Defining migration on a spatial scale is also highly subjective, as a Bissau-Guinean may travel 2 km to settle in Senegal or Guinea-Conakry.In this sense, the term migration here is used to capture the meaning conveyed by respondents reflecting decisions based on a set of contextual, cultural and personal factors to spend an indefinite or definite period of time away from their families, typically with the intention of stabilizing or bettering their living conditions.
An important contribution of this empirical research is to show that although communities opt to stay put, they actively mobilize to overcome their struggles.Hence we refrain from interpreting decisions as voluntary or involuntary since these can be highly subjective.For instance, some people may move earlier than others, voluntarily or involuntarily, before they are pushed to the limits of inhabitability.

Guinea-Bissau: an overview
Guinea-Bissau is a coastal and low-lying West African nation bordered to the north by Senegal to the east and south and by Guinea-Conakry.Its 36,125 km² area is home to approximately 2 million people of over 30 different ethnicities.Since the 1990s, its population has more than doubled and is projected to reach 3.5 million by 2050 (World Bank 2021).Guinea-Bissau is constituted by the Bolama-Bijagós Biosphere Reserve, an archipelago of 88 islands and islets of which 21 are inhabited.
The lack of institutional capacity and limited financial resources resemble those of other postcolonial SIDS' experiences (Birk 2014).Nonetheless, each territory faces distinctive social and political obstacles that pose significant barriers to enhancing the well-being and the coping capacity of local communities (Stojanov et al. 2016;Petzold and Magnan 2019).Despite the glimmer of democracy following the parliamentary and presidential elections of 1999 and subsequent modest economic and political liberation, Guinea Bissau's political instability has taken a heavy toll (Kohl 2010;Embaló 2012).
Engulfed in structural crises and social dissent (Ostheimer 2001), the country gained the label of narco-state following the 2005 presidential re-election of Nino Vieira.Against the backdrop of western anxieties (Lebovich 2020), the labelling of Guinea-Bissau as a fragile, failed, and narco-state, perpetuates the notion that development is only possible through external interference (Chabal and Green 2016;Vasconcelos et al. 2022).This diverts attention away from the need for structural reforms.
The crucial developmental issue remains the extreme inequalities in wealth distribution.This is exacerbated by decades of minimal investment in basic infrastructure, which has left Bissau-Guineans without functioning welfare, health care, education, roads, electricity, and safe potable water.The global pandemic undermined any ongoing symbolic progress (UNDP 2020), including the much-touted tourism industry.
The robust response of civil society has provided an alternative to state politics (Barros 2012) despite the political crises over the exercise of excessive state power and diminished internal and external financial resources (Bappah 2017).This study corroborates the findings of other researchers on the strong agent-based behaviour of Bissau-Guinean communities (Temudo 2009;Vigh 2006;Sousa and Luz 2018) and their value in reformulating and generating their own processes of development (Bordonaro 2009).In a country where significant ecological disruptions afflict terrestrial and marine ecosystems, the role that people play in overcoming current challenges in the face of dysfunctional governance is of primary interest.
Most Bissau-Guineans reside along its coastline, which is highly susceptible to flooding, inundation and erosion (Nyadzi, Bessah, and Kranjac-Berisavljevic 2021).Sea-level rise and greater frequency of coastal storms are expected to have devastating effects on ecosystems when combined with high tide fluctuations (Fandé et al. 2020).Prolonged periods of drought, temperature variations, and changes in precipitation patterns are already producing detrimental effects on livelihoods which rely heavily on healthy ecosystems and biodiversity hotspots for livestock farming, agriculture and fishing (Republic of Guinea-Bissau 2006, 2018).
The people of Guinea-Bissau have assumed a crucial conservation role, limiting the overexploitation of forest resources (Temudo 2009).Nevertheless, their socio-cultural and ecological values appear inadequate to the rapid changes in land cover occurring over time.Alongside the deforestation caused by cashew monoculture (Catarino, Menezes, and Sardinha 2015), forest coverage has been replaced by itinerant agriculture, the clearing of mangroves for rice cultivation, and artisanal fishing.Together with wildfires and abusive illegal logging, these practices are rapidly engendering forest ecosystems in the context of weak local governance and absent institutional management and monitoring (Tiniguena 2017).
For coastal communities heavily reliant on fishing for food security, marine fishing exploitation by foreign fleets, whose techniques massacre sustainable practices, lacks vital state surveillance and regulation (Intchama, Belhabib, and Tomás Jumpe 2018).

Research design and methodological considerations
In this qualitative study, two tiers of players were considered: community and interfering actors.This distinction is based on the work of Arnall and Kothari (2015), who distinguish between elites and non-elites when reviewing climate change perceptions, but who acknowledge the ambiguity inherent in establishing such distinction.This ambiguity is relevant to this work in the sense that some interfering actors, due to their place of birth, ethnicity, and cultural background, may be considered part of or in close proximity to the communities covered by this study.The primary objective of interviewing the interfering actors was to validate the case study and gain insight into how they, through their institutions, perceived climate-related risks in combination with other challenges.
Between June 2019 and July 2021, these two groups were approached independently during three fieldwork periods totalling nearly six months.Prior to this, a database of potential interviewees was mapped out with the assistance of local people and online research.The primary criterion for selecting non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs), and state representatives and officials was their involvement in climate change and environmental challenges.Examples of interfering actors include: members of local NGOs without external financial support; representatives who volunteer or who work for local NGOs with small budgets or who are subcontracted for international-led projects; private and public institutions run by foreign money and/or under government's protection; representatives of international NGOs; officials of INGOs with robust budgets and selected government officials.The first author conducted a total of 16 exploratory unstructured and semi-structured interviews with these actors.
This phase of fieldwork aimed to map perceptions of climate change, validate Guinea-Bissau as a viable case study, and determine which local communities to include.Their responses validated official policy (Republic of Guinea-Bissau 2005, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2018) that identified the regions of the country most susceptible to environmental stress and climate risks.The selection of specific villages (tabankas) and urban neighbourhoods for the ethnographic research in 2020 and 2021 was aided by the interpreter's in-depth familiarity with the proposed regions and villages.

Case-study selection
Various geographical exposure types were utilized, including rural, coastal, insular 2 and urban.Fieldwork was conducted during both the dry and wet seasons to ensure a comprehensive understanding of local contexts and livelihoods.The collected data covered four distinct regions, as indicated by the colour-coding in Figure 1.
The Autonomous Sector of Bissau, specifically the capital of Bissau (Red in Figure 1)and neighbourhoods of Empantchá (1), Blola (3), Bissak (2) and Cuntum Madina (4), experienced extreme storms during the 2020 rainy season.These are multi-ethnic spaces that contrast with rural (inland/coastal) and insular geographies where one or two ethnicities prevail.Despite the opportunities typically offered by a capital city, employment rates are low, and the majority of the population relies on the informal economy.The selected areas are highly susceptible to extreme rainfalls, such as those that occurred in 2020.Certain neighbourhoods are also affected by tidal flooding linked to rising sea levels.
The semi-arid region of Gabú (Green in Figure 1),tabankas of Bajocunda (1), Buruntuma (4), Cancodi (3) and Sintchã Coli (2), predominantly inhabited by the Muslim Fula and Mandinka ethnic groups.While Fulas are predominantly pastoralist and agricultural communities dedicated to trading, Mandinkas profit from the commercialization of tobacco and kola nuts whilst engaging in agriculture.Gabú is located in the east/south-east of the country, approximately 100 km from the Sahel, where prolonged drought and desertification are threatening livelihoods.
The coastal region of Cachéu (Blue in Figure 1), tabankas of Djobel (3), Elalab (2) and Edjim (1) located in the Cachéu River's delta; inhabited by the Felupes, who share their ancestry with the Djola of Casamance (Senegal); primarily devoted to fishing activities and rice cultivation.In these tabankas, the majority of Felupes continue to practice animism, although some have converted to monotheistic faiths such as Catholicism and Protestantism.Their flood-prone areas are extremely susceptible to shifting rainfall patterns, sea-level rise and tidal regimes.
The island regions (Yellow in Figure 1), Ilha de Soga/Island of Soga (2) and Ihéu do Rei/King's islet (1).Ilhéu do Rei is located 10 km off Bissau and the island of Soga in the Bijagós archipelago, 62 km away.The distance from the capital constituted an important geographical component for the inclusion of these islands in the study.It was assumed that their modus vivendi and development opportunities would vary based on their islandness (Conkling 2007).These islands are inhabited predominantly by two ethnic groups: the Papéis (King's islet) and Bijagós (Island of Soga).Fishing and agriculture are essential to the survival of both groups.The Papéis cultivate rice in paddy fashion (bolanha), whereas the Bijagós employ the slash-and-burn method (pampam).The production of cashew has become an important source of income for both islands in the last twenty to thirty years.The Bijagó people also rely on palm trees for the extraction of oil and wine.Many people in Soga have converted to monotheism, but animism remains the predominant spiritual philosophy.In the King's islet most remain animist.These territories, like other coastal regions, are vulnerable to sea-level rise and tidal fluctuations.Moreover, unsustainable fishing practices endanger marine life, fish stocks, and the local fishing communities that rely heavily on them.
These are critical showcases in Guinea-Bissau's 2006 National Adaptation and Planning Assessment (NAPA).In addition, they are included in the two UNDP-led GEF funded climate adaptation programmes aimed at bolstering the resilience of coastal communities and the agrarian and water sectors in semiarid regions (UNDP and Republic of Guinea-Bissau 2015, 2018).This paper highlights research undertaken in islands and low-lying coastal areas where most of the population reside.

Mapping community perceptions
The second and third fieldwork periods adopted a narrative inquiry into the perceptions and life experiences of respondents.This was achieved through the researcher's ethnographic direct observation and participation in communal activities.A wide range of unstructured and semistructured interviews, as well as informal conversations, were often derived from snowball sampling.The researcher initially approached the community chief (comité) or religious leader (régulo), who would then welcome and introduce them to the community.As a result, and because communalism and the African Ubuntu philosophy are deeply rooted in the Bissau-Guinean society, interactions with one respondent would frequently extend to other individuals and households.
Under Fabian's premise that the researcher and those being researched coexist (Fabian 2014), interactions were derived from close relationships.They provided access to everyday lives, thus overcoming traditional subject/object distance.The unstructured and semi-structured interviews were audio and some video recorded.These were obtained with the oral consent of respondents.
Without limiting or directing the conversation toward climate change or environmental degradation, the design of the questions was centred on identifying the reasons for (non-)migration decisions.In other words, respondents were encouraged to control the conversation and express their concerns freely, therefore, reducing research bias.However, when climate change and environmental issues were omitted from their most pressing concerns, they were introduced into the discussion.This was followed by questions regarding the role of the state in addressing challenges to livelihood and individual migration preferences.This strategy ensured that community members' expressed experiences were always at the forefront.
As the researcher lived in the community, repeated and reciprocal interactions occurred.As cultural translation is an ongoing process (Katan 2004), the researcher's ability to adapt to communities' way of life was crucial to overcoming the white 'helper' stereotype (Pink 1998) and other inherently colonial baggage.Communication with some respondents continued in between and beyond fieldwork periods to foster friendship, long-lasting and trustworthy relationships.This ensured a continuity between fieldwork phases and prevented the need to regain the trust of communities during the second phase.In lieu of relying solely on the Portuguese translation and thirdparty interpretations, the researcher gradually mastered the Bissau-Guinean creolethe language transversal to all ethnicities.
Researched communities are multi-ethnic and although most speak Bissau-Guinean creole, the researcher recruited interpreters who spoke distinct local languages (e.g.Bijagó, Fula, Felupe).Throughout the duration of this process, interpreters became crucial trust builders with an invaluable cultural awareness and sensitivity.The communication, translation, and interpretation of these mediators (Katan 2004) proved invaluable in establishing a more intimate understanding between community members and the researcher.Any scope for bias as a result of such relationships was reduced by always placing community members, their transmitted views and experiences, at the centre of the research process.
Interpreters quickly became familiar with questions and their meanings as they introduced the research goals and intentions to respondents.Care was taken to match the ethnic backgrounds of the interpreters with those of the various studied geographies, thereby reinforcing local acceptability and receptivity.Through this explanatory process, communities were reassured of the researcher's intentions.It is often the case that a white person will be gathering information for implementing a development project.
Representativeness by gender and age shaped the sample.Of the 168 recorded respondents, 51% were male and 49% women.Despite consideration for different age groups, many Bissau-Guineans are unregistered at birth or ethnically undergo different age transitions as a result of cultural and religious practices.This makes it impracticable to determine age with certainty.The sample consisted of a random selection of households.Those with whom the researcher cohabited were always included in the study.In Guinea-Bissau, ethnicity determines the social and cultural organization of groups.In all study areas, the diversity of social structures, hierarchies and leaderships were considered.
The use of narrative inquiry as a research method enabled the identification of respondents' lived experiences as well as their sense-making of their surroundings.Once transcribed, the researcher examined each story individually.Climate and environmental change, local development issues, political governance, and (non-)migration aspirations and capabilities were identified as a thematic pattern that spanned all stories.The findings of the following sections are organized around these guiding themes.

Power and agency in the making of climate change perceptions
We investigate the perceptions of key stakeholders on climate change and environmental degradation.We examine how the varying degrees of power and agency of the various actors shape their respective narratives, and how these narratives contrast among themselves and their communities.State and non-state actors have a substantial influence on how communities perceive climate change.Depending on their institutional setting and role, these interpretations vary significantly from a climate change centred to a community centred perspective.For high-level representatives of local government and international agencies, perceptions stem from global climate discourses, plus international and national reports on climate change risks.Frequent referencing of 'Guinea-Bissau is the second most vulnerable country to climate change after Bangladesh' echo a core message of the 2014 Risk Atlas by Verisk Maplecroft (Verisk Maplecroft 2014).
This process provided a subjective perspective regarding who experiences such vulnerabilities and why.Those more involved in formulating climate and environmental policies or engaged in the implementation of climate adaptation projects often focused on financial aspects and technocratic solutions.They also emphasized the lack Guinea-Bissau's technical capacity to quantify climate change-related losses and implement foreign-led projects.Little note was given to the actual 'real world' plight of the directly affected communities.When the nature of the respondents' work involved a close relationship with communities, they frequently expressed concern over Guinea-Bissau's development trajectory, stressing the risks imposed by climate change.
International NGOs tended to adopt a global climate discourse and link climate change to the impacts they observed on peoples' livelihoods.Representatives of local NGOs, on the other hand, comprehend the needs and concerns of communities from a broader historical perspective.They elaborate on the socio-economic, ethno-cultural and political factors influencing livelihoods and how they are crucial for coping with current and future climate and environmental hazards.Members of local NGOs provide crucial access to the perception-making processes within affected communities: In the past, I encountered people who talked about desertification rather than climate change, but now we talk about climate change.Sometimes we use these buzzwords, and we remove our capacity of analysis, as well our capacity to communicate interesting experiences, because we close ourselves off behind buzzwords.
This oversimplification induces conceptual vagueness.The meanings and significance of climate change for local communities are reduced to a restricted narrative that seeps upwards in vague and generalized ways.In the words of a local NGO respondent: Communities feel climate change.A local may not know how to interpret or establish connections, but they know their local reality.They will tell us that the species are disappearing, that it rains less, that the sea level is rising, and that salinisation levels in freshwater are very high.They know all that very well because their lived reality is different from a reality that is described but not experienced.They went through it.
Local NGOs are often required to adopt and to follow foreign donors' requirements, largely unsuitable for local realities (Hearn 2007): The dynamic of projects does not allow us to achieve a social contract because it has a beginning, middle and end and then the population must find their own way.Unfortunately, projects kill many of our endogenous visions, our endogenous solutions to achieve the resilience that people need.In Guinea-Bissau we need to look at various factors to help communities become more resilient, otherwise, our contextual analysis will be limited to climate change.
This endeavour is further hindered by the lack of state and institutional capacity.Whilst a respondent highlights that if the political conjuncture fails, then nothing is going to work, others fall back on the French word déliquescence, reflecting Guinea-Bissau's state's fragmentation and fragility.For them, there is no state, no law.
Long-term ineffective governance, as depicted in these narratives, is a determinant of vulnerability and an indicator of Guinea-Bissau's ability to respond to future disruptions.Currently, communities face a multitude of continuing challenges with little prospect for supportive governance.This political trajectoryan under-resourced state detached from its peoples and heavily dependent on external donorsmakes the support of Bissau-Guinean communities by NGOs and other civil society organizations essential (Barros 2012).It is also crucial to acknowledge that escaping the persistent governance malaise entails the incorporation of state and non-state actors, traditional power and the private sector in any meaningful public participation and decisionmaking processes (Bertana 2020).

Local perceptions of climate and non-climate change
As elsewhere in Africa, subsistence-based communities in Guinea-Bissau have a strong and intimate relationship with nature, and, therefore, are sensitive to changes in their biophysical surroundings (Savo et al. 2016).The push for greater recognition and inclusion of local voices into wider climate change debates is guiding scientific research towards more community oriented approaches (Belfer, Ford, and Maillet 2017), shifting and shaping the climate migration debate as well (Schutte et al. 2021;Warner and Boas 2019).Our empirical research demonstrates that perspectives and experiences of development are inextricably linked to perceptions of climate and environmental change.Not only do such views determine the self-reliance of communities, they also shape their (non-)migration decisions.
The majority of Guinea-Bissau's population lives in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly exposed to sea-level rise.This is exacerbated by the country's failure to control subsidence in its delta region.Guinea-Bissau's numerous tidal estuaries allow saline intrusion up to 175 km inland (Republic of Guinea-Bissau 2018).Local communities have long grown accustomed to tidal flooding and surges, but as these become more extreme, they require increased local coping and adaptation capacity.Respondents in the coastal and island sites covered in this study report a wide range of sea inundations aggravated during the rainy season.Furthermore, the length of the rainy season has been significantly reduced, affecting both water availability and water quality for consumption and agricultural production.
In Djobel, half of the houses and rice paddies have gradually flooded by seawater over the last two decades, according to the community leader.As the sea approaches Elalab and Edjim, rice production declines as fields disappear or flood with saltwater.To remove toxic seawater from rice paddies, freshwater is essential.Changes in rainfall patterns have an impact on productivity, threatening the quality and availability of farmable land.Saltwater intrusion has surpassed freshwater seaward movement in Djobel, threatening irrigation, consumption, and inhabitability.Some residents associate sea-level rise with their colonial past and the recent rural-urban migration.During the colonial war, members of this village and others nearby fled north to Senegal.When they returned, abandoned villages needed to be rebuilt, including Djobel, which had been completely flooded.Roads were (re)opened in a collaborative effort to reach Djobel and other abandoned villages after the war.However, the majority of Arame's residents and members of the pre-war Djobel community decided against assisting others in reaching Djobel: Kumulolo [male, 60-70?yrs,Djobel]: Going to Djobel meant working in water and building dykes, so the majority refused to go and stayed in Arame.
Guinea-Bissau's colonial legacy and the prevalence of inter-ethnic conflict, as attested by respondents, dominates memories and judgments.Although water was already an issue when Djobel was resettled, rebuilt dykes initially prevented flooding at first.According to one respondent, 2007 was the year water flooding became more severe.In Djobel, as in Elalab and Edjim, insufficient (young people) manpower to (re)build dykes is adjudged as one of the causes of seawater inundation.
The critical issue of declining freshwater availability is prevalent throughout Guinea-Bissau.For example, in rural hinterland areas, prolonged periods of drought dry up wells, water basins, rivers, and tributaries.Although more abundant in coastal areas, sweet water is harmed by saltwater intrusion, a circumstance commonly perceived to have deteriorated over time.Freshwater has all but vanished in Djobel, where homes rest on precarious 'islands'.To find freshwater, people embark on a four-hour journey in a small wooden boat to a nearby tabanka (Djufunco).In Elalab, seawater intrusion had submerged vast areas of rice paddies, endangering local food security: Adriano [male 45yrs, Elalab, 2020]: Rice cultivation is the most important thing we do.It's the basis of our diet.If you don't eat rice, then you haven't eaten anything yet.
The local community chief voices the tabanka's concern with sea flooding over the past two decades: Eduardo [male, 46yrs, community chief, Elalab, 2020]: This is a tabanka of farmers.Our main job is agriculture.As saltwater is increasing more and more, we are worried because our productivity is now low.It's not sufficient for the whole tabanka.We count on fishing as a second job to complement rice production, but our parents don't count on that.
Across many coastal areas of the Guinea-Bissau farmers engage in sophisticated and complex dam construction for mangrove rice production (Sousa and Luz 2018).To control and prevent flooding, the youth help rebuild and maintain the dykes.To balance out the presence of freshwater and saltwater within dykes, the community employs a tube constructed from the trunk of a palm tree.However, palm trees must be sourced in Suzana, which is located a few kilometres from Elalab.This was formerly performed by local youths, who now spend a significant portion of the year in the capital and return only during the traditional land preparation and harvest periods.The palm tree pipes are no longer being replaced, compromising the dykes' strength.The comité fears that without them the saltwater will soon reach the rice paddies.
Inadequate schools and training facilities, which force young people to leave, are an additional concern: Eduardo [male, 46yrs, community chief, Elalab, 2020]: Sea flooding doesn't affect us all, but education concerns every tabanka in the section of Suzana.
In Edjim, sea inundation impact is much lower than in Elalab and Djobel.Edjim has enough ground to expand its pampam cultivation method.Notwithstanding, one respondent alerts: Djincansobo [male, 64yrs, Edjim, 2021] Now that my rice fields have been destroyed, I will have to beg someone for a cultivation plot.Sometimes I can't even sleep.In that area there are several of us cultivating but we are all old.Our children no longer want to help us.Who will help me rebuild the dykes?I try but the water still gets in.
Despite the relative geographical proximity of these communities, family incomes rely on the characteristics of their physical surroundings.For instance, there are no palm trees in Elalab, but Edjim benefits economically from the extraction of palm wine.Djobel and Elalab profit from fishing on the Cachéu River, and the women of Elalab launch an 'oyster campaign' every two years.
Both communities report a drastic decline in fish populations and species.To make matters worse, the lack of infrastructures and transport systems has a significant impact on the selling and trading of goods.The economic impact of such limitations is even more striking when we consider how these communities often provide their own basic public services.
In Edjim the community rally around the educational pursuits of their children.At the time of this fieldwork, the government had failed to pay teachers' salaries for more than two years, putting numerous children and young people at the brink of educational exclusion.Communities organize themselves through their revenue-generating activities and establish a fund to cover such emergencies.Edjim effectively replaced the state in guaranteeing local teachers a salary, their permanence in the village, and the education of their children.This example shows how communities can be actors of change and determine their social condition through 'tactical resistance' (Bordonaro 2009).
Since its independence, Guinea-Bissau's lack of opportunities has forced its youth to seek employment and education in the capital and elsewhere.The elderly often demonstrate discontent towards such ambitions, as the missing youth reduce vital manpower for livelihood activities essential to the tabankas' survival and perseverance.Communities face a painful paradox between remaining to secure local livelihoods and leaving in order to pursue better life opportunities.In both coastal and insular tabankas, some older respondents struggle to accept that the youth are no longer putting as much effort into agriculture as before.A Soga native echoes such concerns: António [male, 70-80yrs, Soga, 2020] Nowadays young people charge money to work.We used to work for free for our parents or anyone else in the village.
To which a group of local youth retorts: Group of young people [males and females, age range 16-38yrs, Soga, 2020] We can't work in agriculture as before because we want to go to school.We choose to attend school in order to one day have a job and a pension.Agriculture doesn't give us that.
Community members on Ilhéu do Rei and Ilha de Soga report seawater intrusion in rice paddies and salinity contamination in freshwater, just as they do on the mainland.In Soga, the lack of precipitation has reduced food availability and, according to older islanders, has dried up a large natural aquifer that supplied the island with fresh water.One respondent notes that the abundant presence of mangroves in that area reveals a significant advance of the sea.Younger respondents, who are more active and mobile, report increased coastal erosion all over the island.
Soga's forest, also affected by sea inundation, is no longer abundant.This is largely due to the rainfed agriculture on the slash-and-burn technique.While the forest remains rich in palm trees essential for kernel palm oil and palm wine, Soga islanders lack straw for building house roofs and must travel to the nearby islands of Formosa and Galinhas to source it.
In coastal and island communities, fish is an essential component of islanders' nutrition and food security.Moreover, fish hold a primordial place in the Bijagós archipelago as attested by their material culture and ceremonial traditions.Residents claim a drastic decrease in fish populations and a shift in available species.They attribute these changes to the presence of foreigners with small to medium-sized boats from neighbouring countries, primarily Senegal and Guinea, as well as larger foreigner industrial fleets.
For the Bijagó culture, small fish should be left in the ocean and all catches should only satisfy one's immediate needs.The cutting of mangroves by Guinean (Conakry) communities for smoking the fish is another common practice condemned by islanders.This practice, which is replicated by Guinean fishermen who settle on the shores of various islands of the Archipelago, is widely regarded as environmentally destructive by the Soga population.They fully understand the importance of mangroves in biodiversity, including their role in fish reproduction.This differs from the islanders of Ilhéu do Rei who are also known for smoking fish and selling it in Bissau.
Soga and Ilhéu do Rei possess distinct modus vivendi, culturally and socially organized in distinguishable ways.Despite this, perceptions and experiences tend to overlap: Fernando [male, community chief, 70-80?yrs,Ilhéu do Rei, 2020]: It was not necessary to go out in the sea and search for fish every day.Now survival is very difficult.
Ilhéu do Rei's comité originates from south Guinea-Bissau (Quinara) where rainmaking rituals were once common.The comité believes that the current lack of such ceremonies is to blame for the lack of rain.Since agriculture is limited to half of the year, communities frequently express concerns about food security; however, their survival depends on the fish they catch and sell in Bissau in order to buy other food staples.From the comité's perspective, sea-level rise has yet to affect the island, and the flooding of rice paddies is seen to result from the lack of dyke maintenance.A group of local women, however, observed that trees are falling into the sea all over the island.

Self-reliance as a response to state absenteeism
Throughout this research, formal and informal discussions about the country's political chaos arose frequently.Respondents expressed deep frustration and disappointment at the relentless political turmoil and the abandonment of their established social structures.From the perspective of coastal communities, if the government intervened, seawater intrusion could be attenuated: Eduardo [male, community chief, 46yrs, Elalab, 2020]: We asked for financial support to recover our rice paddies, but the government has yet to respond.Then we approached an NGO and the first pipes for our dykes arrived in 2012.It's not worthwhile asking the government./ … / Beginning is not part of our culture.
Occasionally, as a second resort, communities recur to NGOs, cooperatives, associations, or religious missions that have been established locally.While regretting their children's departure to the capital and the community struggle to halt sea inundation, an elderly couple from Elalab noted: Sinni and Utical [married couple, 70-80?yrs, Elalab, 2020]: Even if we gather all the youth in the village, we would not stop seawater.Without help there's nothing we can do.We also see that Guinea-Bissau is not developing, even in Bissau they are not developing at all.How are they going to arrive here?
In Djobel, where the conflict with Arame persists despite their pleas for help since 2002 (Temudo and Cabral 2021), the population sees the state's response to the relocation issue as wholly insufficient: Simitebe [male, 50-60yrs, Djobel, 2020]: If you hear anyone in Djobel say they believe the state will eventually help us, they are lying./ … / We sometimes ask the government to help us with rice and they don't even do that.There's a [foreign] priest who helps us with food, but he is old now.
The urgent need to relocate Djobel has reignited old inter-ethnic conflicts and disputes with the nearby tabanka of Arame.State-led efforts to mediate the conflict and move Djobel upper land have proved ineffective and resulted in serious community representational imbalances.According to some of Djobel's inhabitants, the state favours Arame because 'they are richer and can buy regional administrators'.For Temudo and Cabral (2021), poor governance sits at the root of this conflict's resurgence and the inability to be resolved.In insular areas, criticism of the government is rife: Group of women [age range 20-60yrs, Ilhéu do Rei, 2020]: We vote, but nothing happens.They don't even give us transport.The government could make an effort.Women here give birth by the ocean waiting for a canoe.There's no hope over the roles of the state.
Unlike Soga or the coastal tabankas, Ilhéu do Rei is only 10 min away from the capital, yet political alienation and abandonment remain the same.In every researched location, sentiments of hope and hopelessness mingle and reinforce, bound to the country's historical continuity and subjugated to poor governance (Santy and da Silva Valencio 2017).

Is climate change a deciding factor to (non-)migration decisions?
The answer is no.Informal interviews and conversations were rife with concerns over developmental struggles, some of which were perceived to be intrinsically linked to how communities experience environmental degradation and climate change.In coastal and island communities, respondents express how they endure distress and how, in the absence of support, they rely on mutual care and support to improve their circumstances.
Before marrying and forming a family, young adults have different prospects and greater migration aspirations.This decreases as individuals approach middle age, and further declines among those over 50/60 years old.Climate change is not a preponderant factor in migration decisions; rather, better the search for education and economic opportunities are.
For the youth, seasonal migration is a survival advantage.They relocate to the capital or to a neighbouring nation with higher living standards (e.g.Senegal or Gambia).Many return for essential family duties, frequently in the rice planting and harvesting seasons.For long-term migration, Bissau-Guineans typically rely on family ties and networks.When such support is unavailable, young adults must work harder to find the means to finance their migration.This is the situation for many young Soga adults, whose islandness and remoteness raises a physical barrier to migration.The presence of family members at preferred destinations can prove critical for determining movement patterns.This contrasts with Ilhéu do Rei whose island status benefits from its physical proximity to Bissau.Many pursue their education and economic activities in the capital, despite being at the mercy of inadequate transport systems.
Communities of Felupe ethnicity established in the north of Guinea-Bissau (e.g.Edjim, Elalab, Djobel) and in the Casamance region of Senegal have been separated by the imposition of imperial borders, leaving their counterparts in two countries.Nearly every Felupe has relatives on the opposite side of the border, including in Gambia.This facilitates movement for those wishing to migrate.
Migratory movements are deemed worthwhile when life improvements are anticipated.Migration studies conducted in other tabankas of Guinea-Bissau conclude that migration itself improves current living conditions, rather than bringing about profound changes that overcome structural and social changes (Abreu 2012).This is consistent with the lived experiences observed and transmitted throughout the fieldwork, wherein family members abroad or in the capital hardly possess the means to significantly improve the standard of living in their place of origin.
A well-grounded sense of belonging and identity towards the place of birth and a duty of responsibility towards family members is at the basis of seasonal departure and returns amongst the youth.For many of the middle-aged and even more for the elderly, leaving their tabanka is not in their plans.The elderly may do so for medical reasons if their financial resources permit.An elderly female, says: Ana [female, Rainhatraditional/hereditary village leader -60-70yrs, Soga, 2020]: I never thought about that [migration] because we are from here and we will live here until we die.If we leave because we hear that people live better in other places, we should question why is that so?We should think about it.
The sentiment proliferates.When asked about leaving the island, two middle aged men, answered: Augusto and Rui [males, 39 & 49, Soga, 2020]: There's nowhere to go.Our parents were born here, everyone was born here and lived here.It's tough to die here but we will not leave.
In Djobel, where nearly half of the population have been forced to leave, the comité estimates that 120 houses remain.The community recognizes that they have little control over the situation.Young people hesitate to (re)build their homes due to the increased risk of flooding.Many opt to live elsewhere, in and outside the country.Those who remain in the tabanka, wish to settle next to Arame and continue their animist practices and rice culture adjacent to Djobel.
In our findings we found that the high-ranking officials' approach was broadly technocratic and based on set policies and institutional mandates.This weakened the judgement of the processes that create and reproduce vulnerability as well as their agency, individual and collective strength to carry on with their lives.This perspective contrasted with the perspectives of local NGOs, who recognized and were critical towards the unsafe conditions under which people live and lacked effective support from the state.We then found that local people struggled to enjoy a reasonable degree of autonomy and choice as they navigated their options in the face of various stresses imposed by structural conditions, dysfunctional governance and heightened climate and environmental stresses.But we also discovered that people found ways of coping and adjusting, individually and collectively, through temporary migration, cohesion and solidarity.This enabled them to remain where they primarily wished.

Final remarks
This paper has illustrated that staying put is the preferred strategy by Guinea-Bissau's coastal and island communities.Despite alarmingly difficult livelihood circumstances owing to the country's colonial past and postcolonial inadequate rule, communities' sense of belongingness, along with their cultural and spiritual attachment to their land, are compelling reasons for pursuing ways to survive in place.This challenges ill-conceived western beliefs of climate-induced mass migration that seek to disempower, racialize and secure migrants behind closed borders.
The narratives in this study abound with accounts of the structural violence that produces and maintains people's conditions of vulnerability.This represents a significant impediment to the concretization of their wishesthe materialization of their ever-changing individual aspirations and capabilities ( de Haas 2021).This corroborates experiences of destitution and marginalization frequently embedded in the narratives of populations elsewhere (Zickgraf 2019;Kelman et al. 2017;Ahsan et al. 2022;Mallick and Schanze 2020).Yet, the historical struggle against the many factors that continue to place Bissau-Guineans under unsafe conditions, and the lack of political responsiveness, propels them to find mechanisms for carrying on with their lives.Temporary migration, for example, works as an important economic and wellbeing strategy at the household level.
This paper has been instrumental in bringing to the fore the individual and collective agency of Bissau-Guineans in navigating such unsafe conditions.It is rather in resistanceat the interdependence of community members and their capacity to organize and mobilizethat alternatives to the status quo emerge.When aspirations and capabilities are compromised by external forces, reliance on the self and the collective to address fundamental needs, rights and freedoms becomes pivotal in migration and non-migration decisions.Staying put is not a passive act, but a decision that requires anticipation, improvization, and persistence to circumvent an oppressed reality.
The collectivist-interventionist approach adopted by coastal and island communities also provide an important clue to governance alternatives.It opens a possibility for self-rule, circumvent state absenteeism and to fight marginalization.Cultivating such self-reliance through care and mutual aid gives way to what Bordonaro (2009) calls a reconfiguration of imported notions of development.This paper sought to demonstrate how communities enact this possibility by intervening in their development.An example is the way the people of Edjim found a way to selffund the public school for the sake of their children's future.
In the case of Djobel, where houses are gradually disappearing due to the sea-level rise and their relocation is yet to be successful, displacement has not been a straightforward process.The communal strategies adopted by them have been crucial to those still surviving in Djobel, as much as they are for those who already left or may want to abandon this location before they feel forced to do so.Guinea-Bissau's multi-ethnic mosaic is also an indication that, unlike small islands and low-lying territories with no spare ground, moving and mingling with other ethnic groups threatens their identity loss.For the many who wish to stay, reliable conditions to thrive in their environments must be created.
Supporting communities in overturning their oppressive reality is of paramount importance in addressing any present and future responses to climate change.No less significant is the role of civil society and its various forms of activism.Despite their difficulties (e.g.external funding dependency; lack of government support) in reinforcing their diversified activities, these people are crucial promoters of social change and advocates of democracy (Barros 2012).
The wish to stay put embodied in the narratives of Bissau-Guinean communities echo that of other small islands' peoples (Farbotko and McMichael 2019;Perumal 2018) and of other geographical settings (Ahsan et al. 2022;Ayeb-Karlsson and Uy 2022;Mallick and Schanze 2020).In these empirically grounded studies, the climate-migration relationship is highly subjective to a set of conditioning factors that may overlap the realities of effective survival over both space and time.In other words, place-attachment seems to be a strong factor for staying put, yet many combinations of factors may produce different outcomes.
In this respect, we back the call for a careful and subtle analysis of climate change in local settings (Parsons and Nielsen 2020).More importantly, contextualized studies and researchers dealing with the issue of climate change and migration should adopt an evaluative and critical reasoning of what constitutes peoples' vulnerabilities; assume the heterogeneity of factors that might be in place; and accept migration and non-migration as processes in which peoples' agency and 'peripheral knowledges' matter.Our research shows how non-migration is deeply rooted in local communities' subjective sense of community safety, shaping their risk perceptions and survival strategies.We argue that the focus should be placed on restoring communities' sense of justice and providing them with the essential conditions to thrive.
In Guinea-Bissau, the future of (non-)migration decisions appear to be less dependent on how far impacts of climate change on coastal and island communities are awarded higher salience.More at issue here is how they manage to overcome the many factors which render them vulnerable.How state intervention shapes up in the systemic exclusion and marginalization of its peoples is decisive to their future.Real livelihoods are at stake behind the invisibility of communities, the demands of donors, and the rhetoric of the COP27 disputes and delays.Those alive are already on the unavoidable front line.The present is not yet their future.

Notes
1.The words 'community' or 'communities' are used to refer to the collective of respondents included in this study that either live together in the same tabanka (village) or area.In Guinea-Bissau, the word comunidade is frequently employed in this manner.Nonetheless, this is a recent appropriation of the Portuguese language that has supplanted the local kriol term manjuandadi.The author further acknowledges the multidimensional meanings of the word 'community', yet it falls outside of the scope of this paper to further elaborate on its different conceptualisations.2. The term insular is used to refer to an island or to the people pertaining to an island.The authors reject any pejorative meaning that may be associated with it.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Map of Guinea-Bissau with researched locations and a detailed satellite view of coastal tabankas.