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Demographic deepening and far right durability: evidence from the Great Recession

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Comparative European Politics Aims and scope

Abstract

Political scientists have largely situated Western Europe’s new far right in the noneconomic, sociocultural dimension of party competition that realized greater salience during the relative peace and affluence of the post-war period. Such an investment in ‘new politics’ implies that far right support should retrench when economic issues regain salience, yet far right support did not appreciably recede in the aftermath of Europe’s Great Recession. This article argues that far right durability during the Great Recession is due to a sociodemographically rooted electorate, defined by education, occupation, and working class identity, and that—among the major party families in Western Europe—the far right is uniquely and anachronistically structured by sociodemographics. Analyses using the European Election Study show that by 2014, far right parties exclusively overrepresent working class, blue collar, and less educated voters—even when compared to Social Democrats or the radical left. These voters appear unlikely to abandon the far right once they have lent support, and these traits predict future far right support even controlling for recalled vote. Thus, this article argues that far right success during the Great Recession results from consolidating rather than expanding their electoral base, with implications for democratic competition.

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Notes

  1. Data are available for download through GESIS Data archive. More extensive discussion of the data is available at http://europeanelectionstudies.net/.

  2. I also include Pim Fortuyn’s List (LPF) in 2004. The Belgian parties are excluded in 2004 because questions on vote intention were not asked. Sweden is excluded in 2004 because the far right was too small to be included. Omitting these parties for 2009 and 2014 does not substantively change any conclusion.

  3. Workplace situation was recorded differently in 2004, encoding sector in addition to service and industry, rather than industry, service, and professional. However, the measure of blue-collar work is commensurate.

  4. The data for occupation are not directly comparable, as 2004 emphasized sector. However, industrial workers—the category most germane to this project—are identified as such across all three waves.

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  1. Department of Political Science, Central Connecticut State University, 1615 Stanley Street, New Britain, CT, 06053, USA

    Trevor J. Allen

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Allen, T.J. Demographic deepening and far right durability: evidence from the Great Recession. Comp Eur Polit (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-023-00352-6

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