Lives of Models in the World of Policy

Abstract

When models gain seniority as experts in public health, their lives become intertwined with ours. They provide estimates and predictions, turning them into action. Mansnerus argues that this can lead to the renewal of vaccination policies or improvement in animal health. Policy needs are simplified, and the model-based evidence faces a heterogeneity in which their recommendations may be resisted and disputed. Mansnerus concludes by discussing the critical voices that warn us about overreliance on model-based evidence, and the supportive ones that remind us of their beneficial use. We use models to overcome the ethical and financial restrictions we face when making sense of infectious risks that affect us all.