Abstract
In 1983, Shell (the Dutch, global Oil and Gas Group) published their latest set of global scenarios. They were called Incrementalism and the Greening of Russia. The Greening of Russia told a tale about a virtually unknown man coming to power followed by a massive economic and political restructuring in Russia. It was not that this man, as an individual, would bring a halt to the Cold War. Rather that his arrival in power would be a symptom of a set of deep, underlying forces. When the scenario was shared with soviet experts in government agencies, they told Shell that this was as implausible as a fairy story.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Altman, R. (2011). We Need not Fret Over Omnipotent Markets. FT.com. Available at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/890161ac-1b69-11e1-85f8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fHKcTLBn [Accessed December 2, 2011].
Bobbitt, P. (2008). Terror and Consent: The Wars for the Twenty-First Century, London: Penguin.
Bull, H. (1977). The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics 2nd ed., Houndmills: Macmillan.
Davies, R.D. (2012). The Era of Global Transition, Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.
Ferguson, N. (2010). Complexity and Collapse. Foreign Affairs 89(2): 18–32.
Friedrichs, J. (2001). The Meaning of New Medievalism. European Journal of International Relations 7(4): 475–502.
Gilpin, R. (1981). War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Guzansky, Y. and Berti, B. (2011). The Arab Spring’s Violent Turn. The National Interest. Available at: http://www.nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-arab-springs-violent-turn-6254 [Accessed December 16, 2011].
Harvey, D. (2010). The Enigma of Capital and the Crises of Capitalism, London: Profile Books.
Ohmae, K. (1995). The End of the Nation State: The Rise of the Regional Economies, London: Harper Collins.
Ralston, B. and Wilson, I. (2006). The Scenario Planning Handbook: A Practitioner’s Guide to Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today’s Uncertain Times, Ohio: Thomson.
Ranson, S., Hinings, B. and Greenwood, R. (1980). The Structuring of Organizational Structures. Administrative Science Quarterly 25(1): 1–17.
Rodrik, D. (2000). How Far Will International Economic Integration Go? Journal of Economic Perspectives 14(1): 177–186.
Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Why Global Markets, States and Democracy Can’t Coexist, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Schwartz, P. (2009). Your Future in 5 Easy Steps: Wired Guide to Personal Scenario Planning. Wired. Available at: http://www.wired.com/special_multimedia/2009/ff_scenario_1708 [Accessed February 4, 2012].
Shell International (2005). The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 – The Future Business Environment: Trends, Trade-offs and Choices, London: Shell.
Thomas, S. (2000). Taking Religious and Cultural Pluralism Seriously: The Global Resurgence of Religion and the Transformation of International Society. Millennium: Journal of International Studies 29(3): 815–841.
Thomas, S. (2005). The Global Resurgence of Religion and the Transformation of International Relations, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Verity, J. (2003). Scenario Planning as a Strategy Technique. European Business Journal 14(4): 185–195.
Wack, P. (1985). The Gentle Art of Reperceiving. Scenarios, Uncharted Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review September/October: 73–89; and Scenarios, Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review November/December: 139–150.
Weick, K. (1995). Sensemaking in Organisations, Thousand Oaks: Sage.
Wilkinson, L. (2009). How to Build Scenarios. Wired. Available at: http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html [Accessed February 4, 2012].
Zizek, S. (2007). The Dreams of Others. These Times. Available at: http://www.inthesetimes.com/the_dreams_of_others/ [Accessed January 25, 2012].
Copyright information
© 2012 Robert Davies
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Davies, R. (2012). Strategy and the New Uncertainty. In: The New Strategic Landscape. Cass Business Press. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137283368_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137283368_3
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-34749-0
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-28336-8
eBook Packages: Palgrave Business & Management CollectionBusiness and Management (R0)