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Space-time dynamics of maritime piracy

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Abstract

The article examines space-time patterns of maritime piracy around the Horn of Africa. Using rational choice theory and optimal foraging theory as the theoretic frame, 6 years of recorded pirate attack data were used to test whether spatial and temporal attack patterns were independent. The results indicate evidence for a communicability of risk; that is, pirate activity clusters in space and time. Incorporating this finding means that forecasting of high-risk areas could be made more effective. The theoretical implication is that pirates’ target selection appears to be consistent with other crime types, such as burglary, car crime and shootings. The results have implications for informing maritime piracy prevention and suppression efforts.

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Notes

  1. There exists another definition in the literature. The International Maritime Bureau (IMB) defines piracy as ‘the act of boarding any vessel with an intent to commit theft or any other crime, and with an intent or capacity to use force in furtherance of that act’ (ICC International Maritime Bureau, 2011, p. 3). This includes any act of robbery or violence against a ship either docked or steaming. As the focus of the analysis is on pirate activity on the high seas, the IMB definition is not used.

  2. Leeson (2007) provides an interesting micro-economic treatment of the structure, governance and operating practices of pirate gangs.

  3. Puntland, on the northeastern tip of Somalia, is a self-declared autonomous state and widely regarded as the stronghold of pirate gangs.

  4. Due to the extent of the study region, Great Circle distances were calculated rather than Euclidean distance as the former accounts for the curvature of the Earth (which becomes important when the distance between two points is sufficiently large).

  5. Operation ATALANTA (EU-led) commenced on December 2008 and Combined Task Force 151 (US-led) commenced on January 2009.

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  1. School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University, M10_3.21, Mt Gravatt Campus, Queensland, 4111, Australia

    Michael Townsley & Alessandro Oliveira

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  1. Michael Townsley
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  2. Alessandro Oliveira
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Townsley, M., Oliveira, A. Space-time dynamics of maritime piracy. Secur J 28, 217–229 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2012.45

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