The effectiveness of community-based early warning system of Kelud volcano eruption 2014

Kelud Volcano is an active volcano in Indonesia. About 150 million meter cubic has erupted on 13 February 2013 at 22.30. People were successfully responded to the most significant eruption in history without any fatalities, by doing less than 2 hours evacuation, from 21.15 to 22.50. This research was conducted to show the success of the community in building the resilience process by applying a good system of community-based early warning. The study was conducted through documentary review and field assessment with participatory research methods, including mapping, transects, and historical studies. The result of research show that the community has four aspects of early warning system has been successfully fulfilled by communities. Those four aspects are (1) Knowledge of risk; (2) Monitoring and warning service; (3) Dissemination and communication; (4) Ability of the people to respond. Systematic data collection and risk assessment, with its pattern and tendency factors, ensured that disaster and vulnerability are well-known. Monitoring parameter to create accurate and timely pre-estimation has been ensured by disaster monitoring and early warning service. Communicating information and early warning ensured that the warning could be received by everyone that affected by disaster, risk, and its warning can be understood and useful. Establishing the people’s responsibility to ensure the response must be renewed, ability and local knowledge can be utilized, and people are ready to response warning. Simulation and training activities were implemented by the people within the disaster-prone area. Finally, the powerfulness of community preparedness can manage the tremendous level of a volcano eruption.


Introduction
Kelud Volcano is one of the active volcanoes in East Java province. It is geographically located in 7°56'00" SL and 112°18'30" EL and administratively belongs to the 3 districts of Blitar Regency, Kediri and Malang. Kelud Volcano experienced 31 times eruptions since the year 1000 to 1990. The eruptions were claimed about 15,000 lives. Eruption dated February 13th, 2014 at 22:30 spewed 150 million cubic meters. Figure 1 is an aerial image of Kelud Volcano eruption which taken by USGS on 18 February 2014.
Most of the victims were exposed to hot clouds (pyroclastic surge), pyroclastic flow, and especially eruption lava. The deadliest eruption was occurred in 1856, victimized about 10,000 inhabitants, while the eruption in 1919 swallowed more than 5,000 casualties. During the 20th century, the death toll of Kelud Volcano's eruption in 1919 (5,115 fatalities) was ranked fourth highest after Mount Pelee in Martinique (29,000 fatalities), Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia (24,442 fatalities) and Santa Maria in Guatemala (11,000 fatalities). The death toll from Kelud Volcano was almost four times higher than Merapi eruption (1,369 fatalities) during the same century. Kelud as categorized as a volcano with St. Vincent eruption type. The height of eruption fumes can reach more than 10 km and spew out 150-200 million cubic meters of tephra in less than ten hours, on 10 February 1990's eruption. The eruption of volcanoes that have a crater lake such as Kelud Volcano is an explosive eruption from inside the crater with buried material sized ash, lapilli, and block. Prior to magmatic eruptions, eruption activity may begin with steam eruptions (phreatic eruptions), which then develop into eruption forming a volcano bomb. Every eruption activity always ends with the formation of a lava plug on the crater of the mountain [1,2].
KeludVolcano eruption on February 13, 2014, spewed 150 million volcanic materials in the form of ash, sand, and gravel reached the radius of 30 kilometers, especially to the western region to the southwest of the crater Kelud Volcano. Ash and sand on the layer of 1,500 m in the air were carried by the wind to the northeast, at layer 5,000 m were carried to the northwest, and at layer 9,000 m were carried to the west [3]. According to information from various mass media, rain was reportedly spread to Pasuruan, Surabaya, Sumenep, Solo, Boyolali, Yogyakarta, Cilacap, Ciamis, Bandung, and  Numbers of schools were located in the area of disaster-prone. These were to create separate management of the school in handling disasters that occur in school. Thus, it is a necessary school-based disaster risk reduction activities. Activities include capacity building of teachers on DRR and First Aid, preparing school protocols, preparing EWS in schools as well as integrating DRR materials in subjects. 5. Early Warning System. The information is fast and from the right source. It is beneficial in the preparedness of people who are in disaster-prone areas. For preparedness, JangkarKelud has the agreement of communication line by using handy talky (HT) and community radio; there are 120 HT spread in 36 villages and 9 frequency modulation radio that joined in Community Radio Network of JangkarKelud.

Maintaining sustainability
Eliminating dependency can only occur if institutional sustainability in the community and disaster risk management activities is carried out continuously. 1. Standby team meetings. This event is held with joint training on the readiness of competing First Aid between villages. Specific competition to raise the activities of village alert teams is held, and gift in the form of tools such as megaphone and HT are given also 2. Break-fasting together and Halal Bi Halal. In the month of Ramadhan, the members of the JangkarKelud team perform a Break-fasting event together. This event is a place-to-place event, with the aim to establish togetherness and awaken the spirit of the standby team. The place is usually chosen by less active villages in the hope that they can be more active in the future. Halal bi Halal is used as a meeting place for alert team members in 3 districts to know each other and learn together. The event was held to invite stakeholders of Local Disaster Management Agency (LDMA) at district and provincial level, Centre of Volcanological and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) and other parties who had joint activities both institutionally and individually. 3. Establish a community-style early warning system.
Quick information from the right sources means that communication between the village alert teams around Kelud Volcano is a common need.

Lessons learned
Analysis on the process of building resiliencies showed that all aspects of early warning system had been accomplished by the community and local authorities. Those four aspects are (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, and (4) response ability.

Maintaining sustainability
A systematic data collection and risk assessment showed that hazard and vulnerability had been known well. Pattern and trend of each factor are known. Furthermore, data provision and risk mapping have been widely arranged. In 2013, National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) obliged DREAM to arrange a blueprint for disaster management plan of volcanic eruption and targeted Kelud Volcano as one of the priority. CVGHM were always monitored and researched it. In community level, risk assessment, hazard introduction, and influencing factors have been implemented since 2008. Meanwhile, series of disaster management training; emergency response training, school-based disaster management; community-based disaster management, first aid, workshop and training on risk mapping and disaster contingency has been implemented within July 2008 -May 2010. CVGHM, with KAPPALA and DREAM were always involved in every capacity strengthening of JangkarKelud.
Those series of training were understood in the form of relation between volcano status and community's responsiveness, related to volcano status. CVGHM's recommendation and essential activities in the community were the formulae that were developed in Community Based Volcano Disaster Preparedness Training of Merapi Volcano with Geological Disaster Technology Research and Development Center (GDTRDC) and Forum Merapi, PasagMerapi, DREAM, and KAPPALA.

Monitoring and warning system
Monitoring and early warning system ensured the truth of monitored parameter, created a scientific and robust basis to make the prediction, and created an accurate and on-time warning. CVGHM implemented some dissemination of information. Spatial dissemination has been delivered in disaster risk mapping of Kelud Volcano. For 2014, information has been disseminated accurately. Status changing from Normal into Advisory was delivered on 2 February 2014; status is changing from Advisory into Watch was delivered on 10 February 2014; status is changing from Watch into Warning was delivered on 13 February 2014 at 21.15, and an eruption occurred at 22.30.

Dissemination and communication
Communication and early warning system have ensured that the warning can reach everyone and affected them. Thus, disaster risk and its warnings should be understood, and it has clear and useful information. In community level, early warning system training in every river stream was delivered in January 2009. Management, broadcasting, community radio technique training was implemented in December 2011 -June 2012. Meanwhile, the radio information operating system and its communication tools were delivered in April 2011. A good information system delivered from one source through a specific way. The community can receive the information as one definition and interpretation. Afterward, a good information system goes from communication radio, community radio, and cell phone. In 2014 eruption, monitoring post of Kelud Volcano communicated some changes from Watch into Warning to amateur radio organization, such as Amateur Radio Organization of Republic Indonesia (ARORI) and Indonesian Communication Radio (ICR) Kediri, and to JangkarKelud. Furthermore, JangkarKelud disseminated the information through phone, communication radio, and community radio into second-order communication. Short communication order from monitoring post to the community has been delivered well.
There is 13 community radio, 9 of them are Community Radio Network of JangkarKelud, prepared by KAPPALA since 2010. Meanwhile, Kediri has community radio located in various locations; SugihWaras village (Kelud FM), Siman village (Adevo FM), Sempu village (Sempu Raya FM) and Satak village (JKS FM); In Blitar, they have community radio at Candirejo village (CandiKelud FM), Modangan village (LintasKelud FM) and Soso village (Estu FM); Then, in Malang community radio are located in Pondok Agung village (Pandawa FM) and Ngantru village (Smart FM). Each of them supported by communication radio (handy talky).
In 2013, there were 25 villages that reached by the communication network, and now there are 63 villages. The radio is held by coordinator and representatives of each Standby village, as each of them has 20 members within. To ensure that information can be received, those communication radios are united by three repeaters which managed by JangkarKelud on the downhill of Wilis Volcano, Kawi Volcano, and Ngantang mountains. Meanwhile, Kediri has one repeater which built on Kelud Volcano.

Response
Building community ensuring the Then, local wi response to the 63 villages may and training in the various Agung, Besowo, Kepung. Those KAPPALA Volunteer Team the eruption.