A positive urban environment of the future: revitalising the county railway

. The paper anticipates and proposes a version of the project for the revitalisation of the Moscow district railway. Sources have been analysed to identify possible future scenarios and risks have been identified which will be addressed in the project. These risks include pessimistic forecasts such as an increase in the number of urban dwellers and their cultural contrast, an increase in social discontent, unemployment, and the negative aspects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Human life itself is being questioned. We present the results of a survey among the urban population of working age regarding their preferences in choosing urban space that meets their individual ideas about comfort and allows them to experience positive emotions. Urban dwellers choose spaces with green areas, water, and activity zones. However, it was not possible to complete a sketch of the ideal space due to the respondents' subjective preferences.


Introduction
The future of the world is difficult to predict. Nevertheless, all the forces of intelligent humanity are focused on living in harmonious conditions, on creating and maintaining a living environment that meets the requirements of a full healthy life, which is the immediate direct task of builders, architects and planners. This requires a responsible attitude towards the world.
Responsible stewardship of the world was articulated in 2015 in the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda, through the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals [1]. The global approach, which aims to establish and maintain a balance in the fundamental areas related to human life, developed in this document, is implemented in a series of concrete actions carried out by each individual and their alliances up to a single global community.
The aspiration to establish and maintain a balance is the key intention of many lifespace designers. These aspirations are in demand in the context of increasing urbanisation. Land improvement projects are being developed and implemented all over the world. Of particular interest are developments preserving historical heritage, cultural monuments, as well as revitalisation and gentrification projects. For example, the renovation of a factory building in Venice and a residential estate in Milan (Italy), an old quarter in Gdańsk and a mine shaft in Zabrze (Poland) [2]. An example of a multi-faceted approach to the creation of commercial space is the project in the Belgian city of Liège [3]. A study on industrial city revitalisation is presented by the example of the city of Gardner (Massachusetts, USA) [4]. Revitalisation as a method of transforming the built environment in the context of preserving and promoting the cultural value of historic buildings was presented in the example of the Serbian city of Niš and the Russian city of St. Petersburg [5]. The relation of past and present values in the light of the conservation and restoration work of the Norwegian architect Christian Bjerknes based on Riegle's age value theory is reflected in Carolyn Ahmer [6].
When it comes to designing a safe and comfortable space, we are interested in looking into the future, to consider possible life scenarios for the world when preparing a project. What will the world be like tomorrow? Will landscaped areas be relevant and in demand tomorrow? How long will they be needed? Will it be possible to give city dwellers the opportunity to experience positive emotions, to feel satisfied? What are the experiences of modern city-dwellers in situations of choosing the most favourable location, route or object of urban infrastructure? What are the ideal perceptions of life in the city that can be identified among the contemporaries?
The relevance of the topic of cultural, historical heritage preservation in the process of modernization of urban space, revival of abandoned areas, creating conditions for positive emotions of citizens is undeniable.
The aim of the work is to create an emotionally positive space, meeting such significant requirements with a projection on possible future scenarios.
Aware of their part of responsibility for themselves and the consequences of their actions or omissions, relying on the motto of environmentalists of the 1990s 'Think globally, act locally' the project of a positive continuous cultural and social space of a large metropolis was conceived. A concrete example is the revitalisation of the Moscow Circular Railway. It is a circular railway, which was built in 1908 according to the design of engineer P.I. Rashevsky and architect A.N. Pomerantsev in the Russian Art Nouveau style to carry out freight and passenger traffic between the railway directions of the capital [7]. Until now, each station has preserved historical objects, some of which are objects of cultural heritage, the reconstruction of which can give new life to the historical structures of the XIX century and create new points of attraction for citizens.

Methods
In order to realise the research objective of forecasting major future trends, a method of examining sources containing expert assessments of current trends and their projection into tomorrow was applied. Among the available sources, we selected the two main ones used by authors from around the world. These are the works of Klaus Schwab and Global trends-2040.
Klaus Schwab, the founder and chairman of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the author of the Concept of Industry 4.0, formulated back in 2011. [9,10], is considered a speaker of technological change on a global scale. He is invited as an expert and authority figure by the political, economic, scientific and media communities. The core twelve technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution described by him were perceived as futuristic only recently, in 2018. They have become the reality of the present by 2023.
Global trends-2040 [8]. Based on organisational principles, the analysis was structured in three sections. The first section: a study of structural forces in four main areas: demography, environment, economy, technology. These areas were selected because of their universal scope, the availability of available data and evidence, and because they are fundamental to shaping future dynamics and can offer projections with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Second section: An examination of the interaction and intersection of these structural forces with other factors influencing the emerging dynamics at three levels of analysis: individuals and society, states and the international system. The analysis in this section involves a higher degree of uncertainty due to the variety of human choices that will be made in the future. The authors of the projections focused on identifying and describing the key emerging dynamics at each level, including what drives them and how they may evolve over time. The analysis takes into account the human responses that can influence emerging dynamics in societies, states and international systems.
The third section: identifying key uncertainties and using them to create five scenarios for the future development of the world in 2040. The authors point out that these scenarios are not intended to be predictions, but rather to empowerment, exploring different combinations of how structural forces, emerging dynamics and key uncertainties might play out.
The practical approach was implemented through a questionnaire survey of Moscow residents of different ages. The purpose of the questionnaire is to identify the emotional preferences of the inhabitants in order to model an ideal urban space. The questionnaire consists of 17 questions and was offered to respondents in an electronic format Google Form.
Methods of observation, study and analysis of data were also used. To implement N. Ermilov's idea of creating a positive continuous cultural and social space on the example of revitalization of the Moscow district railway, a design method was applied using 3D design and visualization software archicad 2024, enscape 3.4 and lumion 12 Pro.
The works of A. Maslow, J. Plumper were used as a theoretical basis for the study of human emotions. The works of W. Gelpach on psychology of environment, P. Kidwell on research of emotions in the city, E. Hall on proxemics are taken into account.
The works of D. Wong, T. Zhuravleva, V. Shenshinov, V. Feretti and others provided the theoretical basis for the study of the experience of revitalisation, in particular of railways.
Parks on railway tracks have been created in various countries and are popular with city dwellers. One famous example of a park on railway tracks is the High Line Park in New York, where an oasis in the stone jungle is located on the elevated rails. Another example is the Promenade plantée (French for 'walk with trees') in Paris, a parkway on the site of a railway aqueduct that now houses a new urban space surrounded by plants.

Results
In order to look beyond the horizon, the steps described have been taken, but it is worth considering that the results of the study do not strictly predetermine the vectors of development; of course, the future remains unpredictable. The important thing is that there are options to diversify the preparation for the future, to broaden the idea of ways to prevent possible difficulties.
Schwab: According to C. Schwab [9,10], founder and chairman of the World Economic Forum in Davos, our lives, our work and our communication are fundamentally changing. He links such changes to the Fourth Industrial Revolution and stresses that humanity has never had such an experience. Of particular importance are the issues of multilateral cooperation, which ignores all kinds of boundaries: scientific, social, political, national, industrial and others. Such interaction contributes to the creation of a unified vision of change, both at the global level and at the level of an industry or a single organisation.
The above-mentioned twelve technologies driving the Fourth Industrial Revolution, according to C. Schwab, related to digital empowerment, transformation of the physical world, human change, and environmental integration, cover almost all areas of human activity; are advanced and innovative, but, on the other hand, due to their novelty, cause many disputes and concerns. In particular, the uncertainty of the consequences of their application provokes an appeal to universal ethical norms, the value aspects of human existence and social interaction.
Such risks include, for example, the following (according to C. Schwab) [9]: 1. The level of unemployment, tensions in society, the risk of social explosion due to automation and robotisation, the use of artificial intelligence (AI).
2. Threat to the existence of humanity (e.g. long-term predictions, provided that the values of AI and humans cannot be reconciled).
3. The acute topic of security. Cybersecurity risks (possibilities of hacking or deception of AI). Dangers of using 3D printing for mass proliferation of weapons, including the introduction of complex material (biological tissues, cells, chemical compounds). Biorisk. Manipulation through reality changing technologies.
4. Concerns about the role of human competence, human judgement and intelligence due to the delegation of some functions to automated systems. Changing human tasks due to the automation of a range of repetitive and technical tasks.
5. Ethical considerations in relation to the application of AI in many aspects of life. The need to take into account a wide range of concerns, from scientific freedoms to human rights. The threat of privacy. Threat to the stability of worldviews and sense of reality.
6. The environmental consequences of nanopollution. 7. The problem of capital investment (relevant to practically all technologies, including the discovery, development, and introduction of new materials).
8. The necessity of formation of interdisciplinary groups, international coalitions, importance of cooperation and support of academic community, governments and business for collective benefit of work on (with) new materials and nanotechnologies. Collective interaction aimed at mitigating the social and political implications of the transition to renewable energy sources. 9. Uncertainty of the consequences of all Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies. The unpredictability of the application of biotechnology. It is worth noting separately the following conclusions of Global trends-2040. First, urbanization will continue. Historically, it has been a key factor in economic development [8, p. 28]. Urban sprawl stimulates the development of the construction industry and contributes to the provision of jobs for both local residents and visitors from other regions.
Secondly, the demographic factor. Life expectancy in European countries will increase, the number of elderly citizens of these countries will increase (25% by 2040 compared with 15% in 2010), the economy will suffer due to a shortage of working age population, at the same time the population growth in some African countries will be up to 2/3 of the total world population by 2040, and by 2050 the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double as compared with 2021 [8, p. 26].
Thirdly, migration processes. This follows on from the previous conclusion. Sub-Saharan Africa's problems will be due to increasing urbanisation due to population growth and the subsequent inability to provide infrastructure and educational and health needs. Migration processes from such countries to "ageing" countries (mainly EU countries) will intensify, even given the preference for technological innovation and automation, which may somewhat limit the demand for highly skilled labour [8, p. 36].
Fourth, the nature of conflicts at all levels will change. Rapidly evolving technologies, including hypersonic and AI, are creating new or improved types of weapon systems, expanding the range of potential military and civilian targets, including domestic infrastructure, financial systems, cyber and computer networks. These technologies will provide states with capabilities in the form of coercive tools [8, p. 102], as will terrorist organisations around the world [8, p. 115]. In addition, the level of distrust of citizens in different countries towards governments increases due to the latter's inability to meet people's needs or expectations, which may determine outbreaks of discontent and conflict [8, p. 4].
Thus, the sketch of the future, according to an analysis of the sources, is thoughtprovoking and thought-provoking. It is a world of big cities with an older European population and a younger African population. Migration processes are taking a new turn. Social discontent is rising and the significance of human labour is declining. Information and digital technologies pervade the urban fabric, many services are automated, virtual space continues to supplant reality. The multicultural world lacks stability, cities multiply and proliferate. We vote for it to be a managed human-centred process.
Such a pessimistic prognosis increases the urgency of the need for shaping and maintaining emotionally positive urban space.
A questionnaire was developed and tested in an electronic format in order to realise the objective. The sample consisted of 25 people (20% men, 80% women) of different age groups from 18 to 49 years old.
This study revealed that the respondents visit cafes and parks more often and prefer to be in crowded places. The presence of parks with good infrastructure, water reservoirs, equipped recreation areas and green spaces evoked positive emotions in the respondents.
Urban factors perceived as negative are identified: noise, dirt, roads. Indeed, roads and railways not only tear up the urban fabric and isolate neighbourhoods from each other but also create noise pollution in the city.
The respondents described their ideal urban space as a large park with a good infrastructure without cars, with many places of interest: museums, exhibitions, co-working spaces, libraries, restaurants and cafés (Figures 1, 2).  The presence of water bodies and greenery was mentioned, which gives the impression of a jungle where no man has set foot. In such an ideal space, respondents would like to see several trails zoned according to interests, so that the place "would be popular, but at the same time secluded". This would avoid pandemonium, enjoy solitude and silence.
Thus, respondents did not name a specific park or space in the city, which means that residents are still in search of their 'ideal positive space' and the question remains open.
Our project, taking into account all the wishes of those surveyed, will be able to enable people to find their favourite space and create a new human-oriented continuous positive route in the city. the possibility of free movement between the 14 stations of the Moscow District Railway and the new stations, using the already existing Moscow Central Ring Road, helps to solve the problem of health protection, develop interest in learning new things and stimulate the production of the hormone noradrenaline. The hormone noradrenaline is produced during activity, perception of new things. The norm of noradrenaline production is necessary for self-motivation, interest in life, it gives strength and dynamism to the process of life activity.
A continuous route in the city will be equipped with recreational activities and facilities for interesting leisure activities, aiming to address the issue of the preservation of architectural heritage as well as the promotion of physical culture. The revitalisation of the Moscow District Railway can contribute to solving this problem. Now 14 stations of the Moscow District Railway are part of the Moscow Central Circle (except Kanatchikovo station). Its revitalisation as public transport took place in 2016, but the railway infrastructure is still in need of reconstruction and restoration. In addition to the reconstruction of historic railway structures, it must be remembered that architecture is a link between the city and its inhabitants, and directly affects their psycho-emotional state. New local public spaces ( fig. 3), recreational squares, museums, running and cycling infrastructure with viewpoints, and parks along the railway tracks will contribute to the psycho-physical and cultural development of the population [11,12]. In this way, one will visit the newly formed spaces around the historical sites of the Moscow District Railway [13]. This will allow being in direct active contact with the city. The route will provide zones of rest, solitude, where conditions of silence, including information, are created.
Our urban route includes pedestrian overpasses over roads and paths in order to unify the urban fabric and convenient movement for residents. And also the installation of noise screens at locations with a high level of sound impact on people, meeting the requirements of videoecology. Video ecology is the science of human interaction with the visible environment. Every day we are in direct contact with the urban space, which affects our psycho-emotional state. Our brain gets most of its information through sight, so a depressing environment can be a catalyst for negative thoughts, emotions and states.

Discussion
We would like to start the discussion with the problematic question of the relevance of such a large-scale preparation for a railway revitalisation project within the city. There are a lot of projects that do a good job of solving a local problem and there is a lot of demand for that. But we take a holistic view, believing that everything is interconnected and interdependent. We have put together the forecasts for the future, the international experience of architects and planners for more than 100 years, and the opinions and emotions of our contemporaries. And we intend to continue our research. We believe that rejecting at least one element of our work is tantamount to a limited approach. For example, emotionally unattractive urban objects and spaces are unlikely to come alive. Practice shows that forced stimulation to visit them does not work, nor does adaptation over time. Such objects become neglected and abandoned. Examples abound, from park benches to entire cities.
In the process of discussion today, as in the recent past when Schwab's books were published, the breakthrough characteristics of current and projected changes as well as risks remain relevant [9,10]. Apart from the global fear of humanity ceasing to exist, these include, for example, societal tensions, the risk of social explosion associated with increased unemployment due to widespread automation and the use of artificial intelligence; all security-related issues (cybersecurity, biorisk, threat to the stability of worldviews, privacy threat, environmental threat, etc.); worries about human competencies (competition with artificial intelligence), etc. [10]. However, no one can accurately describe the scenario, hence it is vital to catch the signals of upcoming changes at an early stage in order to maintain one's own adequacy and productivity.
For us, the most important message was the information about the risks associated with unemployment. This means that it is necessary to learn throughout life, to improve one's qualifications and to learn new professional areas. Self-education is therefore a trend of the present and the future. We take this message as a necessity to include areas for classes and workshops, lecture theatres and training rooms in the proposed revitalisation project. In individual, group and mass formats.
The behavioural big data used to analyse Global trends-2040, which captures statistical patterns in human psychology, contributed to the predictions at the individual level. This indicates that a lack of attention to the individual can lead to mass misinformation by political consultants and public relations organizations, and this in turn will increase public distrust of political institutions [8, p. 97]. Taking into account the regularities associated with the individual human factor is necessary, although it is quite difficult to implement. Human perception is subjective, preferences are different and changeable.
A further argument for our multilateral approach in setting up the project is the following information. Over the last 20 years there has been a significant increase in crossborder migration, not only in absolute numbers but also as a percentage of the global population. More than 270 million people in 2020 live in the countries to which they have migrated, an increase of 100 million since 2000. This represents an increase of more than half a per cent of the world's population. The main reasons why migrants have left their homes include: seeking economic prospects, escaping conflicts, crime, religious and social repression and natural disasters [8, p. 35]. The success / failure of adaptation in the new place, assimilation / preservation of cultural identity are not considered in detail in this paper, this is a large separate topic, but are taken into account in the discussion and formulation of conclusions [e.g. 14,15,16,17].
We realise that it is almost impossible to take into account the individual wishes of each person, and cultural and social differences, in a single project at the same time. We understand that there are no universal guidelines for creating an environment that meets the comfort requirements of all people. That is why we have relied on natural conditions that resonate in the heart of every living person: fresh air, space for activity, green areas, water, silence.
The sample consists of age groups from 18 to 49 years old. This is the age of activity, of working ability. There is experience, strength, and many years of life ahead. Of course, an eighteen-year-old boy and a man aged 49 are from different generations, but they are the main visitors of places of activity and recreation. They bring older and younger generations together. One day they will bring their children and grandchildren to places where they themselves feel good.

Conclusions
Conflicting forecasts, which are mostly pessimistic, show that the world is developing but many new risks are emerging, uniting but fragmenting and polarising, getting richer but poorer, secure but vulnerable. Such an unclear outlook and understanding of the variability of the future compels us to direct activity towards clear parameters for maintaining human adequacy and productivity.
We still have a long way to go, as our work precedes the implementation of the project. The revitalisation project of the Moscow District Railway is conceived as an attempt to preserve the cultural and historical heritage in modern ways for those who live life to the full today and for those who will take up the challenges of tomorrow.