Guest molecules containing chromophore groups encapsulated by β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) generate circular dichroism (CD) signals, which enables a preliminary prediction of their binding modes. However, the accurate determination of the representative binding conformation (RC) remains a challenging task due to the complex conformational space of these host–guest systems. Here, we combine a molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics/continuum solvent model (MD/QM/CSM) with induced circular dichroism (ICD) data (N. L. Pacioni, A. B. Pierini and A. V. Veglia, Spectrochim. Acta A Mol. Biomol. Spectrosc., 2013, 103, 319–324.) to explore the binding mechanism of β-CD with four N-methylcarbamate molecules: promecarb (PC), bendiocarb (BC), carbaryl (CY) and carbofuran (CF). In aqueous solution, their stability decreases as: PC > BC > CY > CF. Comparing the ECD spectra computed from TD-DFT with the ICD data can help eliminate many common binding configurations and identify the RC. The host–guest binding affinities (BAs) estimated using a ONIOM2(B971:PM6)/SMD model reproduce the measured binding trend, reveal the competition between the non-covalent interaction and solvent effect and explain the large difference in their binding modes. We also examine the fluctuations in the computed BA using similar structures.