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Southeast Asian ecological dependency on Tibetan Plateau streamflow over the last millennium

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 1151–1158 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

The great river systems originating from the Tibetan Plateau are pivotal for the wellbeing of more than half the global population. Our understanding of historical ranges and future changes in water availability for much of Southeast Asia is, however, limited by short observational records and complex environmental factors. Here we present annually resolved and absolutely dated tree ring-based streamflow reconstructions for the Mekong, Salween and Yarlung Tsangpo rivers since 1000 ce, which are supplemented by corresponding model projections until 2100 ce. We show a significant positive correlation between streamflow and dry season vegetation indices over the Indochinese Peninsula, revealing the importance of the Tibetan Water Tower for the functioning and productivity of ecological and societal systems in Southeast Asia. The streamflow variability is associated with low-frequency sea-surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. We find that streamflow extremes coincide with distinct shifts in local populations that occurred during medieval times, including the occupation and subsequent collapse of Angkor Wat from the eleventh to the sixteenth century. Finally, our projections suggest that future streamflow changes will reach, or even exceed, historical ranges by the end of this century, posing unprecedented risks for Southeast Asia.

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Fig. 1: Spatio-temporal aspects of streamflow reconstruction.
Fig. 2: Comparison of the reconstructed streamflow with regional palaeoclimate records from 1050 to 1500 ce.
Fig. 3: Links of reconstructed streamflow to vegetative cover.
Fig. 4: Relationship of reconstructed streamflow with simulated and observed climate series and indices of the climate system.

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Data availability

The streamflow reconstruction is downloaded from the Mendeley Data Repository Center (https://doi.org/10.17632/7km7vmk4f3.1). Palaeoclimate records for comparison in Fig. 2 were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/?dataTypeId=18). The CESM model data can be downloaded at https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.ccsm4.CESM_CAM5_LME.html, and the CMIP data can be downloaded at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/.

Code availability

The code to carry out the current analyses is available from the corresponding authors upon request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System (BSCTPES, NSFC project no. 41988101), the 2nd Scientific Expedition to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (2019QZKK010206), NSFC (91547115, 42261144687, 42075041) and Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change. J.E. and U.B. acknowledge the support of the ERC Advanced project entitled Monostar (AdG 882727).

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Feng Chen, Wenmin Man.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, China

    Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Xiaoen Zhao, Youping Chen, Heli Zhang, Xian Luo & Daming He

  2. Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming, China

    Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu & Xiaoen Zhao

  3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Wenmin Man

  4. Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany

    Jan Esper

  5. Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic

    Jan Esper & Ulf Büntgen

  6. Laboratory of Tree‑Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    David Meko

  7. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Ulf Büntgen

  8. Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic

    Ulf Büntgen

  9. Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Ulf Büntgen

  10. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, China

    Yujiang Yuan, Heli Zhang, Huaming Shang & Shulong Yu

  11. Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de Zonas Áridas CIGEOBIO (CONICET-UNSJ), Gabinete de Geología Ambiental (INGEO-UNSJ), San Juan, Argentina

    Martín Hadad

  12. Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina

    Fidel A. Roig

  13. Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Huechuraba, Santiago, Chile

    Fidel A. Roig

  14. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Ouya Fang

  15. ALPHA, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITPCAS), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Fahu Chen

  16. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Fahu Chen

  17. MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental System, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

    Fahu Chen

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  1. Feng Chen
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Contributions

F.C., D.H. and F.H.C. conceived and designed the study, with input from all other authors. F.C. and W.M. wrote the original drafts. F.C., W.M., S.W., X.Z. and M.H. performed analyses and generated all figures. All authors contributed to the discussions, reviews and improvement of this paper.

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Correspondence to Feng Chen, Daming He or Fahu Chen.

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Nature Geoscience thanks Jianglin Wang, Matthew Therrell and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Tom Richardson, in collaboration with the Nature Geoscience team.

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Chen, F., Man, W., Wang, S. et al. Southeast Asian ecological dependency on Tibetan Plateau streamflow over the last millennium. Nat. Geosci. 16, 1151–1158 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01320-1

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