Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient

Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 33–37 (2021)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, known to be a pacemaker of global warming, has strengthened since the mid-twentieth century. However, the cause is controversial because a majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest weakening of the zonal SST gradient from the past to the future. Reconciling this discrepancy is important for the climate change attribution and climate sensitivity assessment. Here we use the CMIP5 ensemble and large ensemble simulations by four climate models to show that the intensifying SST gradient observed during 1951–2010 could arise from internal climate variability. Models and members that simulate historical strengthening of the SST gradient commonly exhibit reversed future trends. Using these models as a constraint, the rate of global-mean temperature rise is amplified by 9–30%, with higher values occurring in low-emission scenarios, because internal variability has a greater impact when the externally forced response is smaller.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Linear trends in the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient (ΔSSTeq) during 1951–2010.
Fig. 2: Linear trends in the equatorial ocean potential temperature during 1951–2010.
Fig. 3: Linear trends in ΔSSTeq for 50 years with a sliding window between 1951 and 2100.
Fig. 4: Linear trends in GSAT for 50 years with a sliding window between 1951 and 2100.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

COBE-SST2, ERSSTv5, ICOADS and Kaplan SST data sets are all available from the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD website (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/). Two other SST data sets compiled at the Met Office Hadley Centre are available from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/. The CMIP5 model output analysed in this study is available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) server (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/). The CESM Large Ensemble project simulation output can be obtained from http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS/data-sets.html. The MPI-ESM1.1 large ensemble data are available at the MPI Grand Ensemble project website (https://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/grand-ensemble/). A part of the IPSL-CM6-LR and MIROC6 large ensemble simulation data can be downloaded from ESGF47,48, but the full data sets are available upon request.

Code availability

The Fortran codes used for creating main plots in this study are available at https://ccsr.aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~hiro/sst_trends/.

References

  1. Bjerknes, J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 97, 162–172 (1969).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Jin, F.-F. Tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction, the Pacific cold tongue, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Science 274, 76–78 (1996).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Timmermann, A. et al. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity. Nature 559, 535–545 (2018).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Solomon, A. & Newman, M. Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific Ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 691–699 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  5. IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

  6. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat. Geosci. 3, 391–397 (2010).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Kim, S. T. et al. Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 786–790 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Clement, A., Seager, R., Cane, M. A. & Zebiak, S. E. An ocean dynamical thermostat. J. Clim. 9, 2190–2196 (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Xie, S.-P. et al. Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Clim. 23, 966–986 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686–5699 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Vecchi, G. A. et al. Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441, 73–76 (2006).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Chadwick, R., Boutle, I. & Martin, G. Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. J. Clim. 26, 3803–3822 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Coats, S. & Karnauskas, K. B. Are simulated and observed twentieth century tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends significant relative to internal variability? Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 9928–9937 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  15. England, M. H. et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Deser, C., Phillips, A. S. & Alexander, M. A. Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L10701 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Bordbar, M. H., Martin, T., Latif, M. & Park, W. Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 4246–4255 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Andrews, T. et al. Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 8490–8499 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Ceppi, P. & Gregory, J. M. Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth’s observed radiation budget. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 13126–13131 (2017).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Zhou, C., Zelinka, M. D. & Klein, S. A. Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget. Nat. Geosci. 9, 871–874 (2016).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Dong, Y., Proistosescu, C., Armour, K. C. & Battisti, D. S. Attributing historical and future evolution of radiative feedbacks to regional warming patterns using a Green’s function approach: the preeminence of the western Pacific. J. Clim. 32, 5471–5491 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Fyfe, J. C. et al. Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 224–228 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Luo, J.-J., Wang, G. & Dommenget, D. May common model biases reduce CMIP5’s ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling? Clim. Dynam. 50, 1335–1351 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Seager, R. et al. Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 517–522 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Chung, E.-S. et al. Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 405–412 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Power, S. et al. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn. 15, 319–324 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Henley, B. J. et al. Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 044011 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Meehl, G., Hu, A. & Teng, H. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Nat. Commun. 7, 11718 (2016).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S.-P. The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. Nat. Geosci. 9, 669–673 (2016).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Bordbar, M. H. et al. Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability. Nat. Commun. 10, 1990 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Kociuba, G. & Power, S. B. Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent strengthening of the Walker circulation: implications for projections. J. Clim. 28, 20–35 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Takahashi, C. & Watanabe, M. Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 768–772 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  33. McGregor, S. et al. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 888–892 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  34. Hirahara, S., Ishii, M. & Fukuda, Y. Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. J. Clim. 27, 57–75 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Rayner, N. A. et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 4407 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Smith, R. O., Saunby, M. & Parker, D. E. Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations since 1850. Part 1: measurement and sampling errors. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D14103 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Huang, B. et al. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Clim. 30, 8179–8205 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Woodruff, S. D. et al. ICOADS release 2.5: extensions and enhancements to the surface marine meteorological archive. Int. J. Climatol. 31, 951–967 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Kaplan, A. et al. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18567–18589 (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Ishii, M. & Kimoto, M. Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections. J. Oceanogr. 65, 287–299 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Kay, J. E. et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 96, 1333–1349 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  42. Maher, N. et al. The Max Planck Institute grand ensemble: enabling the exploration of climate system variability. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys. 11, 1–21 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  43. Tatebe, H. et al. Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6. Geo. Model Dev. 12, 2727–2765 (2019).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  44. Boucher, O. et al. Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys. 12, e2019MS002010 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Kimoto, M. & Ghil, M. Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part I: methodology and hemispheric regimes. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2625–2643 (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  47. Boucher, O. et al. IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical run. Earth System Grid Federation https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5195 (2018).

  48. Tatebe, H. et al. MIROC6 model output prepared for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical run. Earth System Grid Federation https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5603 (2018).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the modelling groups, the PCMDI and the WCRP’s WGCM for their efforts in making the CMIP5 multi-model data set available. We also thank T. Suzuki for processing CMIP5 ocean temperature data. M.W., Y.K. and H.T. were supported by Grant-in-Aid 26247079 and the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (JPMXD0717935457) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. J.-L.D. was supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 project #820829. T.M. acknowledges funding from European Research Council grant #770765 and European Union Horizon 2020 project #820829.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan

    Masahiro Watanabe

  2. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique, Paris, France

    Jean-Louis Dufresne

  3. The Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Yu Kosaka

  4. Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Thorsten Mauritsen

  5. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

    Hiroaki Tatebe

Authors
  1. Masahiro Watanabe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jean-Louis Dufresne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yu Kosaka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Thorsten Mauritsen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Hiroaki Tatebe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

M.W. designed the research and wrote the paper. H.T. conducted the MIROC large ensemble experiments. J.-L.D., Y.K. and T.M. helped analyse the large ensemble simulations. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Masahiro Watanabe.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Dong Eun Lee and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1–15 and Table 1.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Watanabe, M., Dufresne, JL., Kosaka, Y. et al. Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 33–37 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene