Displacement efficiency of alternative energy and trans-provincial imported electricity in China

China has invested heavily on alternative energy, but the effectiveness of such energy sources at substituting the dominant coal-fired generation remains unknown. Here we analyse the displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity by alternative energy, primarily hydropower, and by trans-provincial imported electricity in China between 1995 and 2014 using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models. Nationwide, each unit of alternative energy displaces nearly one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity, while each unit of imported electricity (regardless of the generation source) displaces ∼0.3 unit of fossil-fuel electricity generated locally. Results from the six regional grids indicate that significant displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity occurs once the share of alternative energy in the electricity supply mix exceeds ∼10%, which is accompanied by 10–50% rebound in the consumption of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. These findings indicate the need for a policy that integrates carbon taxation, alternative energy and energy efficiency to facilitate China's transition towards a low-carbon economy.

as a function of (a) share of importation and (b) share of net inflow in the electricity supply mix of China's six inter-provincial regional power grids. Error bars represent standard errors of mean, and statistically significant and insignificant displacement coefficients (compared to 0, p-value < 0.05, two-tailed test) are plotted with the symbols of "" and "", respectively.   Although the initial cost of installation is relatively high, the cost of solar and wind electricity generation is practically zero;  The maintenance requirement for solar and wind electricity generation is also relatively low.
 Solar energy and wind power are not continuously available and cannot be dispatched reliably to meet the electricity demand on the grid 3-6 ;  Integrating solar energy and wind power into the power grid requires adequate, flexible sources of generation to smooth out the variations in their energy output 7,8 ;  Large solar and wind energy sources are mostly located in western and northwestern China, necessitating long-distance transmission networks to transmit the electricity to the load centers in the coastal regions.

Predictor variable
Inter-provincial regional power grid   China's six regional grids. Shown is the descriptive statistics on the share of trans-provincial 68 transported electricity (regardless of the source of generation) in the electricity supply mix of 69 China's six inter-provincial regional power grids between 1995 and 2014. nationwide and in the six inter-provincial regional power grids, along with that of 88 trans-provincial electricity transmission, were estimated.

Predictor variable Nationwide
Inter-provincial regional power grid alternative energy production in China's six regional grids. Shown is the descriptive 98 statistics on the shares of hydropower and non-hydro alternative energy produced locally (within 99 the provinces) in the electricity supply mix of China's six inter-provincial regional power grids 100 between 1995 and 2014.   production. Shown is a comparison of the major advantages of fossil fuels, nuclear power, and renewable energy sources, along 144 with their negative impacts on the environment and human health.

Energy source Major advantages
Major negative impacts on the environment and human health Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas)  Fossil fuels are easy to find with abundant supply;  Fossil fuels can be excavated at the reserves, processed at separate locations, and transported to energy users relatively easily;  Power plants operating on fossil fuels can be constructed in almost any locations with access to large quantities of fuels (and cooling water);  Fossil fuel-fired power generation is very cost-effective.
 Combustion of fossil fuels emits CO2, which is a major contributor to global climate change and poses potentially catastrophic incremental climate change risk;  Combustion of fossil fuels (particularly coal) may also release a range of air pollutants, such as particulate matter, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), SO2, and NOX, which can cause moderate to severe air pollution;  Extraction of fossil fuels, particularly coal, affects wide areas of land, and can be detrimental, even disastrous, to the environment;  Underground mining of coal is inherently dangerous and may endanger the lives of miners;  Significant environmental hazards may result from oil spills during the extraction and transportation of crude oil;  Serious water pollution often occurs at coal mines, while some oil fields can also have serious water pollution;  Fossil-fuel-fired power generation has enormous environmental consequences, and it is a key contributor to air pollution, which poses risk to human health. Nuclear power  Nuclear power generation does not release CO2, particular matter, or other gaseous pollutants, thus barely contributes to global warming or air pollution;  Nuclear power plants can be built anywhere with access to large quantities of cooling water;  Nuclear power generation requires very small mass of fuel, which significantly reduces the costs associated with the extraction, handling, and transportation of nuclear fuel (it should be noted that being radioactive, handling and transportation of the fuel is costly);  Electricity generation from nuclear power plants is  Although the volume of waste produced from nuclear power plants is small, management of nuclear waste is very difficult and expensive, and it takes very long time to eliminate its radioactivity and risk;  With many components and parts being radioactive, decommissioning of nuclear power plants is expensive and takes many years;  The mining, milling, and processing of nuclear fuel often produces serious water pollution, and potentially serious water pollution can also occur at the disposal sites of nuclear waste;  Potential catastrophic accidents can occur at nuclear plants in the events of mismanagement or natural disasters (as exemplified by Chernobyl and Fukushima), while they are also potential targets of terrorist attacks;  Nuclear accidents can have long-lasting effects over large regions,