The Change in the Weather: People, Weather, and the Science of Climate

  • William K. Stevens
Delacorte: 2000. 432 pp. $24.95

The serious weather extremes observed throughout the world in recent years have generated a lively debate about anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change. The problem has reached high priority on the agenda of international politics: in 1997, 84 countries signed an agreement known as the Kyoto Protocol, aiming to reduce emissions of heat-trapping trace gases into the atmosphere. Yet one school of thought claims that there's nothing to worry about. Who is most likely to be right, and why?

In this timely book, William K. Stevens reviews not only the findings that led to the Kyoto Protocol, but also the entire science of climate research, from its infancy when Lewis Fry Richardson developed the methods on which modern weather and climate models are based, to the present-day state of the art. Numerous interviews with climate scientists and others involved in the debate add to the clearly explained scientific findings to bring the book to life — one can almost feel the temperature rising as one reads.

Stevens doesn't hide his belief in the mainstream view — that anthropogenic climate change is a major issue and that its effects can already be detected with relatively high probability. However, he devotes some time to reviewing the views of the “contrarians” who claim that climate-change models are seriously flawed and therefore that the projections are no cause for concern.

Stevens is rather optimistic about the degree to which one can detect the impacts of global warming on weather extremes, sometimes seeming unable to distinguish between research results and scientific speculation. Another weakness is that his introduction takes in the history of the Earth, the development of its climate and the evolution of the human race — an interesting outline, but too long in this context and distracting from the climate-change debate.

The rest of this very well-written and accurate book, however, addresses the problem comprehensively, including its social and economic aspects. Stevens has an excellent understanding of the processes within the climate system and succeeds in communicating this knowledge in an understandable, easy-to-read style. He explains clearly the concepts and physical principles on which climate research is based, while highlighting the uncertainties in model projections of the future.

Overall, The Change in the Weather is a useful contribution to the climate-change debate, ideal for students wishing to find out more about the field of climate research in general and anthropogenic climate change in particular. A well-balanced assessment of the debate, this book provides a solid basis for discussion and can be recommended to readers outside the field, with or without a scientific background.