Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Payback time for soil carbon and sugar-cane ethanol

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 605–609 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The effects of land-use change (LUC) on soil carbon (C) balance has to be taken into account in calculating the CO2 savings attributed to bioenergy crops1,2,3. There have been few direct field measurements that quantify the effects of LUC on soil C for the most common land-use transitions into sugar cane in Brazil, the world’s largest producer 1,2,3. We quantified the C balance for LUC as a net loss (carbon debt) or net gain (carbon credit) in soil C for sugar-cane expansion in Brazil. We sampled 135 field sites to 1 m depth, representing three major LUC scenarios. Our results demonstrate that soil C stocks decrease following LUC from native vegetation and pastures, and increase where cropland is converted to sugar cane. The payback time for the soil C debt was eight years for native vegetation and two to three years for pastures. With an increasing need for biofuels and the potential for Brazil to help meet global demand4, our results will be invaluable for guiding expansion policies of sugar-cane production towards greater sustainability.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Regions selected for soil sampling in south-central Brazil.
Figure 2: Land-use change factors derived for 0–30 cm, 0–50 cm and 0–100 cm for incremental accounting periods of five-year blocks.
Figure 3: Response ratios between soil carbon stocks found in sugar-cane fields and reference land uses in different soil layers.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S. & Hawthorne, P. Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Science 319, 1235–1238 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Lapola, D. M. et al. Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 3388–3393 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Gibbs, H. K. et al. Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 034001 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Goldemberg, J., Mello, F. F. C., Cerri, C. E. P., Davies, C. A. & Cerri, C. C. Meeting the global demand for biofuels in 2021 through sustainable land use change policy. Energy Policy 69, 14–18 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. FAO—Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT, 2013; http://faostat.fao.org)

  6. Brazil-Ministry of Mines and Energy—Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Balanço Energético Nacional 2013 - Ano base 2012 (EPE Publication, 2013); https://ben.epe.gov.br/BENRelatorioFinal2013.aspx

  7. Fearnside, P. M. et al. Biomass and greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change in Brazil’s Amazonian arc of deforestation: The states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia. Forest Ecol. Manage. 258, 1968–1978 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Cerri, C. E. P. et al. Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 122, 58–72 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Lal, R. Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security. Science 304, 1623–1627 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Smith, P. et al. Towards an integrated global framework to assess the impacts of land use and management change on soil carbon: Current capability and future vision. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 2089–2101 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Rudorff, B.F.T et al. Studies on the rapid expansion of sugarcane for ethanol production in São Paulo state (Brazil) using landsat data. Remote Sensing 2, 1057–1076 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. CONAB – Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento ‘National Supply Company’. Acompanhamento de safra brasileira: cana-de-açúcar, primeiro levantamento, abril/2009 [in Portuguese]. (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, 2009)

  13. Adami, M. et al. Remote sensing time series to evaluate direct land use change of recent expanded sugarcane crop in Brazil. Sustainability 4, 574–585 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Galford, G. L. et al. Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 19649–19654 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Cerri, C. C. et al. Greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of agriculture and livestock. Sci. Agric. 66, 831–843 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Galdos, M. V., Cerri, C. C. & Cerri, C. E. P. Soil carbon stocks under burned and unburned sugarcane in Brazil. Geoderma 153, 347–352 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Fearnside, P. M. & Barbosa, R. I. Soil carbon changes from conversion of forest to pasture in Brazilian Amazonia. Forest Ecol. Manage. 108, 147–166 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Grace, J., San Jose, J., Meir, P. & Miranda, S. M. Productivity and carbon fluxes of tropical savannas. J. Biogeogr. 33, 387–400 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Silva-Olaya, A. M. et al. Carbon dioxide emissions under different soil tillage systems in mechanically harvested sugarcane. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 1–8 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (eds Eggleston, H. S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T. & Tanabe, K.) (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2006).

  21. Maia, S. M. F., Ogle, S. M., Cerri, C. E. P. & Cerri, C. C. Effect of grassland management on soil carbon sequestration in Rondônia and Mato Grosso states, Brazil. Geoderma 149, 84–91 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Zinn, Y. L., Lal, R. & Resck, D. V. S. Changes in soil organic carbon stocks under agriculture in Brazil. Soil Tillage Res. 84, 28–40 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Maia, S. M. F., Ogle, S. M., Cerri, C. C. & Cerri, C. E. P. Changes in soil organic carbon storage under different agricultural management systems in the Southwest Amazon Region of Brazil. Soil Tillage Res. 106, 177–184 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Rangel, T. F. Amazonian extinction debts. Science 337, 162–163 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Isbell, F. et al. High plant diversity is needed to maintain ecosystem services. Nature 477, 199–202 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Davidson, E. A. et al. The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481, 321–328 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Foley, J. A. et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478, 337–342 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century Renewable 2013 Global Status Report (REN 21 secretariat, 2013); http://www.ren21.net/REN21Activities/GlobalStatusReport.aspx

  29. Chu, S. & Majumdar, A. Opportunities and challenges for a sustainable energy future. Nature 488, 294–303 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Ogle, S. M., Conant, R. T. & Paustian, K. Deriving grassland management factors for a carbon accounting method developed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Environ. Manage. 33, 474–484 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Ogle, S. M., Breidt, F. J. & Paustian, K. Agricultural management impacts on soil organic carbon storage under moist and dry climatic conditions of temperate and tropical regions. Biogeochemistry 72, 87–121 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank São Paulo Research Foundation — FAPESP (2011/ 07105-7), Shell Global Solutions (UK), Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory — CTBE for financial support. We thank all sugar-cane mills, associations and individual farmers who supported the soil sampling and provided access to field work. We also thank B. Ide and E.C. Reidel for their valuable help in finding the comparison pairs and G. Ferrão for support and fieldwork organization. F.F.C.M. wishes to thank W. Clark, N. Dickson and the Sustainability Science Program at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, for help and guidance during the writing and analysis process, and CAPES, CNPq and the Italian Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea for the scholarship granted while this research paper was developed.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, 13416-000, Brazil

    Francisco F. C. Mello & Carlos C. Cerri

  2. Sustainability Science Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA

    Francisco F. C. Mello & N. Michele Holbrook

  3. ‘Luiz de Queiroz’ College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, 13418-260, Brazil

    Carlos E. P. Cerri

  4. Shell Technology Centre Houston, 3333 Highway 6 South Houston, Texas 77082, USA,

    Christian A. Davies

  5. Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA

    N. Michele Holbrook

  6. Department of Soil and Crop Sciences and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA

    Keith Paustian

  7. Instituto Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57035-350, Brazil

    Stoécio M. F. Maia

  8. Laboratório Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia do Bioetanol — CTBE, Campinas, SP, 13830-970, Brazil

    Marcelo V. Galdos

  9. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement — IRD, UMR Eco&Sols, 2 place Viala 34060 Montpellier, France,

    Martial Bernoux

Authors
  1. Francisco F. C. Mello
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Carlos E. P. Cerri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christian A. Davies
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. N. Michele Holbrook
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Keith Paustian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Stoécio M. F. Maia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Marcelo V. Galdos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Martial Bernoux
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Carlos C. Cerri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

F.F.C.M., C.E.P.C., C.C.C. and C.A.D. designed the study and conducted the analyses. S.M.F.M. and K.P. developed the model to determine the LUC factors for sugar cane. All the authors contributed to writing the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Francisco F. C. Mello.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mello, F., Cerri, C., Davies, C. et al. Payback time for soil carbon and sugar-cane ethanol. Nature Clim Change 4, 605–609 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2239

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2239

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing