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GIS-Based Probabilistic Mapping of Landslide Hazard Using a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model

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Abstract

Based on a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) grid-basedthree-dimensional (3-D) deterministic model and taking the slopeunit as the mapping unit, this study maps landslide hazard usingthe 3-D safety factor index and failure probability. Assuming theinitial slip to be the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3-D critical slipsurface in the 3-D slope stability analysis is located by minimizingthe 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation.The failure probability of the landslide is calculated using anapproximate method in which the distributions of c, Φ andthe 3-D safety factor are assumed to be in normal distribution.The method has been applied to a case study on three-dimensionallyand probabilistically mapping landslide hazard.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environmental Systems, Kyushu University, Hakozaki 6-10-1, Higashi Ku, Fukuoka, Japan

    Tetsuro Esaki

  2. College of Resource Engineering, The University of Science and Technology Beijing, Xueyuan Lu 30, Haidian District, Beijing, 10083, China

    Guoyun Zhou

Authors
  1. Mowen Xie
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  2. Tetsuro Esaki
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  3. Guoyun Zhou
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Xie, M., Esaki, T. & Zhou, G. GIS-Based Probabilistic Mapping of Landslide Hazard Using a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model. Natural Hazards 33, 265–282 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000037036.01850.0d

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000037036.01850.0d

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