Abstract
The introduction of the World Wide Web presented changes in the world of academic publishing. Publishers are looking for alternatives to the traditional text-based, paper-based manuscript. Since the mid 1990's, the number of academic electronic journals increased from less than a 100 to several thousands. However, the extent of the penetration of academic electronic journals and the final form they will assume is unclear. This article introduces four scenarios. The scenarios describe four possible forms of academic journals and are based on the economic viability of electronic journals and their acceptance.
The scenarios include status quo, replacement, co-existence, and ubiquitous outcomes for academic journals. It is shown that if the ubiquitous scenario occurs, a number of issues must be resolved which are independent of individual journals. These universal issues include the reliability of the infrastructure, long-term sustainability, and backwards integration. Unintended consequences are also examined.
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Hovav, A., Gray, P. Future Penetration of Academic Electronic Journals: Four Scenarios. Information Systems Frontiers 4, 229–244 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016059004916
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016059004916