Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.

The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ananthakrishnan, R. and Soman, M. K.: 1988, The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala: 1901–1980, Int. J. Climatology 8, 283–296.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chan, J. C. L.: 1985, Tropical cyclones activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to El Niño/Southern Oscillations phenomenon, Mon. Wea. Rev. 113, 599–606.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang, C. P. and Krishnamurti, T. N.: 1987, Monsoon Meteorology, Oxford Press, 544 pp.

  • Gray, W. M. and Sheaffer, J. D.: 1991, EI-Niño and QBO influences on tropical cyclone activity, in M. M. Glantz, R. W. Katz and N. Nicholls (eds.), Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, Cambridge University Press, pp. 257–284.

  • IMD Atlas: 1979, Tracks of Storms and Depressions in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India, 186 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani, R. M. and Kulkarni, A. A.: 1997, Climatic impact of El Niño and La Niña on the Indian monsoon: a new perspective, Weather 52, 39–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao, A. V. R. K.: 1997, Tropical cyclone-Synoptic methods of forecasting, Mausam 48(20), 239–256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao, Y. P.: 1976, Southwest monsoon. Meteorological Monograph Synoptic meteorology, No. 1/1976, India Meteorological Department, 367 pp.

  • Rasmusson, E. M. and Carpenter, T. M.: 1983, The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka, Mon. Wea. Rev. 111, 517–528.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, O. P. and Rout, R. K.: 1999, Frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean during ENSO years. Proceedings of TROPMET-99, Chennai, India.

  • Singh, O. P. and Ali Khan, T. M.: 1999, Changes in the frequencies of cyclonic storms and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Chapter 2 (Trends and Oscillations in the frequency of monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal). SAARC Meteorological Research Centre Report No. 2, pp. 19–30.

  • Shukla, J. and Paolino, D. A.: 1983, The southern oscillation and long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India, Mon. Wea. Rev. 111, 1830–1837.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shukla, J.: 1987, Interannual variability of monsoons, Monsoons, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 632 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thapliyal, V.: 1990, Long range prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India: Evaluation and development of new models, Mausam 42(2), 339–346.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolter, K.: 1987, The Southern Oscillation in Surface Circulation and Climate over the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean as captured by cluster analysis, J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 26, 540–558.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Abhawa Bhaban, Agargaon Dhaka, 1207, Bangladesh

    O. P. Singh, Tariq Masood Ali Khan & Md. Sazedur Rahman

Authors
  1. O. P. Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Tariq Masood Ali Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Md. Sazedur Rahman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Singh, O.P., Ali Khan, T.M. & Rahman, M.S. Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal. Natural Hazards 25, 101–115 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013736923929

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013736923929

Search

Navigation