Abstract
We examine carbon (C) reference and mitigation scenarios for the Mexicanforest sector between the year 2000 and 2030. Estimates are presentedseparately for the period 2008–2012.Future C emissions and capture are estimated using a simulation modelthat: a) allocates the country land use/land cover classes among differentfuture uses and categories using demand-based scenarios for forestryproducts; b) estimates the total C densities associated to each land usecategory, and c) determines the net carbon implications of the process ofland use/cover change according to the different scenarios.The options analyzed include both afforestation/reforestation, such ascommercial, bionenergy and restoration plantations, and agroforestrysystems, and forest conservation, through the sustainable management ofnative forests and forest protection.The total mitigation potential, estimated as the difference between the totallong-term carbon stock in the reference and the mitigation scenario reaches300 × 106 Mg C in the year 2012 and increases to 1,382 × 106 Mg C in 2030. The average net sequestration in the 30 year period is 46 × 106 Mg C yr-1, or 12.5 × 106 Mg C yr-1 within the period 2008 to 2012. The costs of selected mitigation options range from 0.7–3.5 Mg C-1 to 35 Mg C-1. Some options are cost effective.
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Masera, O.R., Cerón, A.D. & Ordóñez, A. Forestry Mitigation Options for Mexico: Finding Synergies between National Sustainable Development Priorities and Global Concerns. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 6, 291–312 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013327019175
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013327019175