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Estimation of Electricity Market Distribution Functions

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Abstract

In an electricity pool market the market distribution function gives the probability that a generator offering a certain quantity of power at a certain price will not be dispatched all of this quantity by the pool. It represents the uncertainty in a pool market associated with the offers of the other agents as well as demand. We present a general Bayesian update scheme for market distribution functions. To illustrate the approach a particular form of this procedure is applied to real data obtained from a New Zealand electricity generator.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Australian Graduate School of Management, Sydney, Australia

    E.J. Anderson

  2. Department of Engineering Science, University of Auckland, New Zealand

    A.B. Philpott

Authors
  1. E.J. Anderson
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  2. A.B. Philpott
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Correspondence to A.B. Philpott.

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Anderson, E., Philpott, A. Estimation of Electricity Market Distribution Functions. Annals of Operations Research 121, 21–32 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023342816908

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023342816908

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