References
J. Alcamo, R. Leemans and E. Kreileman, Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model (Pergamon Press, Oxford, UK, 1998).
S. Bankes, Computational experiments and exploratory modeling, CHANCE 7(1) (1994) 50–57.
U. Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (Sage, London, UK, 1986).
R. Braddock, J. Filar, J. Rotmans and M.G.J. den Elzen, The IMAGE greenhouse model as a mathematical system, Applied Mathematical Modeling 18 (1994) 234–254.
B. de Marchi, S.O. Funtowicz and J.R. Ravetz, The management of uncertainty in the communication of major hazards, in: CEC JRC EUR 15268 EN (CEC Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, 1993).
H. Dowlatabadi and M.G. Morgan, A model framework for integrated studies of the climate problem, Energy Policy (March, 1993) 209–221.
S.O. Funtowicz and J.R. Ravetz, Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy (Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990).
M. Greenberger, M.A. Crenson and B.L. Crissey, Models in the Policy Process (Basic Books, New York, USA, 1976).
M. Henrion and B. Fischhoff, Assessing uncertainty in physical constants, Annual Journal of Physics 54(9) (1986) 791–797.
L. Hordijk, Use of the RAINS model in acid rain negotiations in Europe, Environmental Science and Technology 25(4) (1991) 596–603.
P.H.M. Janssen, W. Slob and J. Rotmans, Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis: an inventory of ideas, methods and techniques from the literature, RIVM-Report no. 958805001, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands (1990).
A. Kann, A comparison of approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models, Working paper of Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, USA (1998).
R. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger and S.C. Bankes, When we don't know the costs or benefits: adaptive strategiesfor abating climate change, Climatic Change 33(2) (1996) 235–274.
D.H. Meadows, D.L. Meadows, J. Randers and W.W. Behrens, The Limits to Growth (Universe Books, New York, USA, 1972).
G.M. Morgan and M. Henrion, Uncertainty – A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, 1990).
N. Oreskes, K. Shrader-Frechette and K. Belitz, Verification, validation and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences, Science 263 (February, 1994) 641–646.
J. Robinson, Global modeling: modeler client relationships, in: Options, Vol. 3 (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 1978).
T. Root and S. Schneider, Ecology and climate: Research strategies and implications, Science 269(52) (1995) 334–341.
J. Rotmans, IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990).
J. Rotmans and M.B.A. van Asselt, Integrated assessment: A growing child on its way to maturity, Climatic Change 34(3,4) (1996) 327–336.
J. Rotmans and H.J.M. de Vries, Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1997).
J. Rotmans, Methods for IA: The challenges and opportunities ahead, Environmental Modelling and Assessment 3(3) (1998) (Special issue: Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Environmental Assessment, J. Rotmans and P. Vellinga, eds.) 155–179.
J. Rotmans and H. Dowlatabadi, Integrated assessment of climate change: evaluation of methods and strategies, in: Human Choice and Climate Change: An International Social Science Assessment, eds. S. Rayner and E. Malone (Battelle Press, Washington, USA, 1998).
M. Thompson, Cultural theory and integrated assessment, Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2(3) (1997) 139–150.
M. Thompson, R. Ellis and A. Wildavsky, Cultural Theory (Westview Press, Boulder, USA, 1990).
W. Tuinstra, L. Hordijk and M. Amann, Using computer models in international negotiations: the case of acidification in Europe, Environment 41(9) 33–42.
M.B.A. van Asselt, Global Integrated Assessment Models as Policy Support Tools: A Triangular Approach (University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands, 1994).
M.B.A. van Asselt and J. Rotmans, Uncertainty in perspective, Global Environmental Change 6(2) (1996) 121–157.
M.B.A. van Asselt, J. Rotmans and S.C.H. Grauw, Puzzle-Solving for Policy: A Provisional Handbook for Integrated Assessment, EFIEA Series (ICIS, Maastricht, The Netherlands).
M.B.A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk: the PRIMA Approach to Decision-Support, Ph.D. Thesis (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2000).
J.P. van der Sluijs, Anchoring Amid Uncertainty (Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 2000).
R.L. Wilby and T.M.L. Wigley, Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and liminations, Progress in Physical Geography 21(4) 530–548.
P. Winsemius, Coordinating standards to avoid cross-media effects, in: Proc. Conf. Protecting the Environment Against Hazards from Chemicals, IEEP/BNA (1986).
B. Wynne, Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm, Global Environmental Change 2 (June 1992) 111–127.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M.B. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling: A Labyrinthic Path. Integrated Assessment 2, 43–55 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011588816469
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011588816469