Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Adaptation: Sensitivity to Natural Variability, Agent Assumptions and Dynamic Climate Changes

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The role of adaptation in impact assessment and integrated assessment of climate policy is briefly reviewed. Agriculture in the US is taken as exemplary of this issue. Historic studies in which no adaptation is assumed (so-called "dumb farmer") versus farmer-agents blessed with perfect foresight (so-called "clairvoyant farmer") are contrasted, and considered limiting cases as compared to "realistic farmers." What kinds of decision rules such realistic farmer-agents would adopt to deal with climate change involves a range of issues. These include degrees of belief the climate is actually changing, knowledge about how it will change, foresight on how technology is changing, estimation of what will happen in competitive granaries and assumptions about what governmental policies will be in various regions and over time. Clearly, a transparent specification of such agent-based decision rules is essential to model adaptation explicitly in any impact assessment. Moreover, open recognition of the limited set of assumptions contained in any one study of adaptation demands that authors clearly note that each individual study can represent only a fraction of plausible outcomes. A set of calculations using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model is offered here as an example of explicit decision rules on adaptive behavior on climate impacts. The model is driven by a 2xCO2 regional climate model scenario (from which a "mock" transient scenario was devised) to calculate yield changes for farmer-agents that practice no adaptation, perfect adaptation and 20-year-lagged adaptation, the latter designed to mimic the masking effects of natural variability on farmers' capacity to see how climate is changing. The results reinforce the expectation that the likely effects of natural variability, which would mask a farmer's capacity to detect climate change, is to place the calculated impacts of climate changes in two regions of the US in between that of perfect and no adaptation. Finally, the use of so-called "hedonic" methods (in which land prices in different regions with different current average climates are used to derive implicitly farmers' adaptive responses to hypothesized future climate changes) is briefly reviewed. It is noted that this procedure in which space and time are substituted, amounts to "ergodic economics." Such cross-sectional analyses are static, and thus neglect the dynamics of both climate and societal evolution. Furthermore, such static methods usually consider only a single measure of change (local mean annual temperature), rather than higher moments like climatic variability, diurnal temperature range, etc. These implicit assumptions in ergodic economics make use of such cross-sectional studies limited for applications to integrated assessments of the actual dynamics of adaptive capacity. While all such methods are appropriate for sensitivity analyses and help to define a plausible range of outcomes, none is by itself likely to define the range of plausible adaptive capacities that might emerge in response to climate change scenarios.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams, R.M.: 1999, ‘On the Search for the Correct Economic Assessment Method. An Editorial Comment’, Clim. Change 41(3–4), 363–370.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ausubel, J.H.: 1991, ‘A Second Look at the Impacts of Climate Change’, American Scientist 79 (May–June), 210–221.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ayres, R.: 1992, ‘Assessing Regional Damage Costs From Global Warming’, in The Regions and Global Warming: Impacts and Strategies, Schmandt, J. and Clarkson, J. (eds.), Oxford University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, T.R., Parry, M.L., Harasawa, H., and Nishioka, S.: 1994, ‘IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations’, University College of London, United Kingdom.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, R.S., Boulding, E.M., Schneider, S.H. (eds.): 1983, Social Science Research and Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Appraisal, D. Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Darwin, R.: 1999, ‘A FARMer's View of the Ricardian Approach to Measuring Agricultural Effects of Climatic Change’, Clim. Change 41(3–4), 371–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DOE: 1980, ‘Environmental and Societal Consequences of a Possible CO2-Induced Climate Change: A Research Agenda’, Vol. 1: Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Project, Report No. 013, U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/EV/10019-01, December.

  • Easterling, W.E., Mearns, L.O. and Hays, C.: (submitted), ‘Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: Part II: Accounting for Adaptation and CO2 Direct Effects’, Clim. Change.

  • Ehrlich, P.R., Ehrlich, A.H., and Daily, G.: 1995, The Stork and the Plow, Putnam, New York, 364pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi, F., Mearns, L.O., Shields, S., and McDaniel, L.: 1998, ‘Regional Nested Model Simulations of Present Day and 2×CO2 Climate over the Central Great Plains of the U.S.’, Clim. Change 40(3–4), 457–493.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M., Barrow, E.M., Arnell, N.W., Harrison, P.A., Johns, T.C., and Downing, T.E.: 1999, ‘Relative Impacts of Human-Induced Climate Change and Natural Climate Variability’, Nature 397, 688–691.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC): 1996, Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaiser, H.M., Riha, S., Wilks, D., Rossiter, D., and Sampath, R.: 1993, ‘A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Climate Warming’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75, 387–398.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T.R. and Knight, R.W.: 1998, ‘Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the U.S.A.’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79, 231–241.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kates, R.W., Ausubel, J.H., and Berberian, M. (eds.): 1985, Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society, SCOPE 27, Wiley, Chichister.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kolstad, C.D., Kelly, D.L., and Mitchell, G.: 1999, ‘Adjustment Costs from Environmental Change Induced by Incomplete Information and Learning’, UCSB working paper.

  • Lorenz, E.: 1968, ‘Climatic Determinism in Causes of Climatic Change’, Meteorological Monographs 8, 1–3

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E.: 1970, ‘Climatic Change as a Mathematical Problem’, Journal of Applied Meteorology 9, 325–329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns, L.O., Katz, R.W., and Schneider, S.H.: 1984, ‘Extreme High Temperature Events: Changes in Their Probabilities and Changes in Mean Temperature’, Journal of Climate and Applied Meterology 23, 1601–1613.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns, L.O., Easterling, W.E., and Hays, C.: (submitted), ‘Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios, Part I: The Uncertainty of Spatial Scale’, Clim. Change.

  • Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W., and Shaw, D.: 1996, ‘Climate Impacts on Aggregate Farm Value: Accounting for Adaptation’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 80, 55–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R., Morrison, W., Schlesinger, M., and Andronova, N.: 2000, ‘Country-Specific Market Impacts of Climate Change’, Clim. Change (in press).

  • Morgan, G. and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1996, ‘Learning from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change’, Clim. Change 34(3–4), 337–368.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss, R.H. and Schneider, S.H.: 1997, ‘Characterizing and Communicating Scientific Uncertainty: Building on the IPCC Second Assessment’, in Elements of Change 1996, Hassol, S.J. and Katzenberger, J. (eds.), Aspen Global Change Institute, Colorado.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Academy of Sciences (NAS): 1991, ‘Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming’, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W.D.: 1992, ‘An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases’, Science 258, 1315–1319.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W.D.: 1994, ‘Expert Opinion on Climatic Change’, American Scientist 82 (Jan–Feb), 45–52.

  • Nordhaus, W.D.: 1997, ‘Discounting in Economics and Climate Change’, An Editorial, Clim. Change 37(2), 315–328.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Overpeck, J.T., Webb, R.S., and Webb III, T.: 1992, ‘Mapping Eastern North American Vegetation Change Over the Past 18,000 Years: No Analogs and the Future’, Geology 20, 1071–1074.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reilly, J.M. et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC): 1996, ‘Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation’, chap. 13 in Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group 11 to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., and Moss, R.H. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 878 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reilly, J.M., 1996, ‘Climate Change, Global Agriculture, and Regional Vulnerability’, in Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy, Nakicenovie, N., Nordhaus, W.D., Richels, R., and Toth, F.L. (eds.), CP-96-1, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenberg, Austria, December, pp. 47–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Risbey, J., Kandlikar, M., Dowlatabadi, H., and Graetz, D., 1999, ‘Scale, Context and Decision Making in Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 4(2), 137–165.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Root, T.L. and Schneider, S.H.: 1995, ‘Ecology and Climate: Research Strategies and Implications’, Science 269, 334–341.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N.J. and Scott, M.J.: 1994, ‘Implications of Policies to Prevent Climate Change for Future Food Security’, Global Environmental Change 4, 49–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N.J.: 1992, ‘Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change’, Clim. Change 21(4), 385–405.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N.J. (ed.): 1993: Towards an Integrated Impact Assessment of Climate Change: The MINK Study, Special Issue of Climatic Change 24(1–2), 1–173.

  • Rosenzweig, C.M., Parry, M.L., and Fischer, G.: 1994, ‘Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply’, Nature 367, 133–138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothman, D.S. and Robinson, J.B.: 1997, ‘Growing Pains: A Conceptual Framework for Considering Integrated Assessments’, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 46, 23–43.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roughgarden, T. and Schneider, S.H.: 1999, ‘Climate Change Policy: Quantifying Uncertainties for Damages and Optimal Carbon Taxes’, Energy Policy 27(7), 415–429.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H.: 1996, ‘The Future of Climate: Potential for Interaction and Surprises’, in Climate Change and World Food Security, Downing, T.E. (ed.), Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, NATO ASI Series 137, 77–113.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H.: 1997, ‘Integrated Assessment Modeling of Global Climate Change: Transparent Rational Tool for Policy Making or Opaque Screen Hiding Value-Laden Assumptions?’ Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2, 229–248.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Chen, R.S.: 1980, ‘Carbon Dioxide Warming and Coastline Flooding: Physical Factors and Climatic Impact’, in Annual Review of Energy, Hollander, J.M., Simmons, M.K., and Wood, D.O. (eds.), 5, 107–140.

  • Schneider, S.H. and Thompson, S.L.: 1985, ‘Future Changes in the Atmosphere’, in The Global Possible, Repetto, R. (ed.), Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 363–430.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H., Kuntz-Duriseti, K., and Azar, C.: 2000, ‘Costing Nonlinearities, Surprises and Irreversible Events’, Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy (submitted).

  • Smith, J. and Tirpak, D. (eds.): 1988, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Draft Report to Congress. Vols. 1 and 2. US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation, Office of Research and Development. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B., McNabb, D., Smithers, J., Swanson, E., Blain, R., and Keddie, P.: 1996, ‘Farming Adaptations to Climatic Variation’, in Great Lakes—St. Lawrence Basin Project on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability: Progress Report One, Mortsch, L. and Mills, B., 125–135.

  • Smit, B., Burton, I., and Klein, R.J.T.: 2000, ‘The Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability’, Clim. Change (this issue).

  • Watterson, I.G., Dix, M.R., Gordon, H.B., and McGregor, J.L.: 1995, ‘The CSIRO Nine-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Its Equilibrium Present and Doubled CO2 Climate’, Aust. Met. Mag. 44, 111–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • West, J.J. and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1998, ‘Assessing Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise’, in Climate Change and Risk, Downing, T., Olsthoorn, A.A., and Tol, R.S.J. (eds.), Routledge, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, J.R., Jones, C.A., and Dyke, P.T.: 1990. The EPIC Model. EPIC-Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator. 1. Model Documentation. USDA-ARS Tech. Bull. No. 1768, pp. 3–92.

  • Yohe, G.W.: 1990, ‘The Cost of Not Holding Back the Sea: Toward a National Sample of Economic Vulnerability’, Coastal Management 18, 403–432.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.W.: 1991, ‘Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Economic Value of Information: An Economic Methodology for Evaluating the Timing and Relative Efficacy of Alternative Response to Climate Change with Application to Protecting Developed Property from Greenhouse Induced Sea Level Rise’, Policy Sciences 24, 245–269.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.W.: 1992, ‘Imbedding Dynamic Responses with Imperfect Information into Static Portraits of the Regional Impact of Climate Change’, in Economic Issues in Global Climate Change, Reilly, J.M. and Anderson, M. (eds.), Westview Press, Boulder, chap. 11, 200–214.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.W., Neumann, J., Marshall, P., and Ameden, H.: 1996, ‘The Economic Cost of Greenhouse Induced Sea Level Rise for Developed Property in the United States, Clim. Change 32(4), 387–410.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 94305-5020, USA

    Stephen H. Schneider

  2. Department of Geography University Park, The Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, 16802-5011, USA

    William E. Easterling

  3. Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado, 80307, USA

    Linda O. Mearns

Authors
  1. Stephen H. Schneider
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. William E. Easterling
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Linda O. Mearns
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Schneider, S.H., Easterling, W.E. & Mearns, L.O. Adaptation: Sensitivity to Natural Variability, Agent Assumptions and Dynamic Climate Changes. Climatic Change 45, 203–221 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005657421149

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005657421149

Keywords

Search

Navigation