Abstract
Advanced computer models are commonly used to simulate reservoir system's performance. If the number of possible management scenarios is large, it can be extremely difficult to follow related system's operation and get a valuable picture on its spatial and temporal behavior. The decision maker or analyst can be overburdened by quantity and complexity of information generated by model, particularly if system operation is repeatedly simulated for multiyear periods. Related problem is how to select the scenario with most desired long-term consequences. Possible approach is to use selected parts of model's output and re-interpret system behavior by means of certain performance indicators, create appropriate decision matrix and perform multi-criteria analysis to rank decision alternatives (scenarios). The paper proposes a methodology that includes: (1) multiyear simulations of system operation; (2) computing spatially and temporally distributed systemperformance indices such as supply reliability, resiliency and vulnerability; (3) unbiased entropy-based weighting the importance ofperformance indices; and (4) final ranking of scenarios by means of multi-criteria analysis. The number of scenarios and number of performance indices is not restricted, and to account for possibly large sets of scenarios, an ideal-point-distance multi-criteria method TOPSIS is suggested. Proposed methodology appeared to be confident and robust in proof-of-concept application in Brazil.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Askew, A. J.: 1974, 'Optimum reservoir operating policies and the imposition of a reliabilty constraint', Water Res. Research 10(1), 51–56.
Azevedo, L. G. T., Gates, T. K., Fontane, D. G., Labadie, J. W. and Porto, R. L.: 2000, 'Integration of water quantity and quality in strategic river Bbsin planning', J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. ASCE 126, 85–97.
Brans, J. P. and Vincke, P.: 1985, 'A preference ranking organization method (The PROMETHEE method for multiple criteria decision-making)', Manage. Sci. 31(6), 647–656.
Burn, D. H., Venema, H. D. and Simonovic, S.,P.: 1991, 'Risk-based performance criteria for realtime reservoir operation', Canadian J. of Civ. Eng. 18, 36–42.
Cheng, C. H.: 1996, 'Evaluating naval tactical missile systems by fuzzy AHP based on the grade value of membership function', Eur. J. Operat. Res. 96, 343–350.
Deng, H., Yeh, C. H. and Willis, R. J.: 2000, 'Inter-company comparison using modified TOPSIS with objective weights', Comp. Operat. Res. 27, 963–973.
Diakoulaki, D., Mavrotas, G. and Papayannakis, L.: 1995, 'Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems: the CRITIC method', Comp. Operat. Res. 22, 763–770.
Faria, A. S., Srdjevic, B., Medeiros, Y. D. P. and Schaer-Barbosa, M.: 2002, 'Modelo de Redes de Fluxo e Analise Multi-Criterial – Uma Aplicacao a Gestao de Recursos Hidricos na Bacia do Rio Paraguacu', VI Simposio de Recursos Hidricos do Nordeste, Maceio-Alagoas, Brasil.
Fiering, M. B.: 1982, 'Alternative indices of resilience', Water Res. Research 18(1), 33–39.
Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J. R. and Loucks, D. P.: 1982, 'Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation', Water Res. Research 18(1), 14–20.
HEC: 1972, 'HEC-3 – Reservoir System Operation', Documentation and User Manual, Hydrologic Engineering Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
HEC: 1979, 'HEC-5 – Simulation of Flood Control and Conservation Systems', Documentation and User Manual, Hydrologic Engineering Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Hwang, C. L. and Yoon, K. S.: 1981, Multiple Attribute Decision-Making: Methods and Applications, Springer, New York.
Labadie, J. W.: 1995, 'MODSIM – River Basin Network Model for Water Rights Planning', Documentation and User Manual, Colorado State University, U.S.A.
Loucks, D. P. and Sigvaldason, O. T.: 1982, 'Multiple-Reservoir Operation in North America', in Z. Kaczmarek and J. Kindler (eds), The Operation of Multiple Reservoir Systems, International Inst. For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenbourg, Austria.
Moy, W-S., Cohon, J. L. and ReVelle, C. S.: 1986, 'A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resiliency and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir', Water Res. Research 22(4), 489–498.
Raju, K. S. and Pillai, C. R. S.: 1999, 'Multicriterion decision making in river basin planning and development', Eur. J. Operat. Res. 112, 249–257.
Roy, B.: 1968, 'Classement et choix en presence de points devue multiples (la methode ELECTRE)', Revue d'Informatique et de recherche operationelle 6(8), 57–75.
Saaty, T. L.: 1980, Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Salminen, P., Hokkanen, J. and Landelma, R.: 1998, 'Comparing multicriteria methods in the context of environmental problems', Eur. J. Operat. Res. 104(3), 485–496.
Sarkis, J.: 2000, 'A comparative analysis of DEA as a discrete alternative multiple criteria decision tool', Eur. J. Operat. Res. 123, 543–557.
Shannon, C. E. and Weaver, W.: 1947, The Mathematical Theory of Communication, Urbana, The University of Illinois Press.
Silva, T. C., Silans, A. P., Filho, L. A. P., Paiva, A. E. D. B., Billib, M. and Boochs, P.: 2001, 'Planejamento dos Recursos Hidricos em uma Bacia Litoranea do Nordeste Barsileiro: Estudo de Caso da Bacia do Rio Gramme, IV Dialogo Interamericano de Gerenciamento de Aguas', Foz do Iguacu, Parana, Brazil.
Simonovic, S.: 1987, 'The implicit stochastic model for reservoir yield optimization', Water Res. Research 23(12), 2159–2156.
Simonovic, S. P.: 1992, 'Reservoir systems analysis: closing gap between theory and practice', J. Water Resour. Plann. and Manage. ASCE 118(12), 262–280.
Srdjevic, B.: 1987, 'Identification of the Control Strategies in Water Resources Systems with Reservoirs by Use of Network Models', Ph. Dissertation, University of Novi Sad, Yugoslavia.
Triantaphyllou, E. and Lin, C. T.: 1996, 'Development and evaluation of five multiattribute decision making methods', Int. J. Approx. Reason. 14, 281–310.
TWDB: 1972, 'SIMYLD–II – River Basin Simulation Program', Program Documentation, Texas Water Development Board, U.S.A.
United States Dept. of Interior (USDI): 2000, 'River and Reservoir Operations Simulation of the Snake River – Application of MODSIM to the Snake River Basin', Final Report, U.S.A.
Wurbs, R. A.: 1993, 'Reservoir-system simulation and optimization models', J. Water Resour. Plann. and Manage. ASCE 119(4), 455–472.
Yeh, W. W-G.: 1985, 'Reservoir management and operations models: A state-of-the-art review', Water Res. Research 21(12), 1797–1818.
Zeleny, M.: 1982, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Srdjevic, B., Medeiros, Y.D.P. & Faria, A.S. An Objective Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Water Management Scenarios. Water Resources Management 18, 35–54 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000015348.88832.52
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000015348.88832.52