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Designing Prediction Markets to Forecast Multi-Stage Elections: The 2022 French Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 March 2022

Joyce E. Berg ,
Thomas S. Gruca  and
Thomas A. Rietz Open the ORCID record for Thomas A. Rietz [Opens in a new window]
Joyce E. Berg
Affiliation:
University of Iowa, USA
Thomas S. Gruca
Affiliation:
University of Iowa, USA
Thomas A. Rietz
Affiliation:
University of Iowa, USA
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Abstract

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Type
Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 55 , Issue 4 , October 2022 , pp. 719 - 725
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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References

REFERENCES

Berg, Joyce E., Forsythe, Robert, Nelson, Forrest D., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2008. “Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research.” In The Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, ed. Plott, Charles and Smith, Vernon, chap. 80, 742–51. Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., Gruca, Thomas S., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2022. “Replication Data for ‘Designing Prediction Markets to Forecast Multi-Stage Elections: The 2022 French Presidential Election.’” Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CT7LVB.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., Nelson, Forrest D., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2008. “Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 283–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2003. “Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems.” Information Systems Frontiers 5 (1): 79–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2019. “Longshots, Overconfidence, and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market.” International Journal of Forecasting 35 (1): 271–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2008. “Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?” Public Opinion Quarterly 27 (2): 190–215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lévy, Jean-Daniel, Bartoli, Pierre-Hadrien, and Gautier, Antoine. 2021. “Baromètre d’Intentions de Vote à l’Election Présidentielle de 2022: Vague 20.” Harris Interactive pour Challenges. Accessed November 10, 2021. http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/11/Rapport-Harris-Vague-20-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf.Google Scholar
Surowiecki, James. 2005. “The Wisdom of Crowds.” New York: Anchor Publishing.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Berg et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CT7LVB
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Berg et al. supplementary material

Appendix

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