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Incorporating the Impacts of Uncertain Fieldwork Time on Whole-Farm Risk-Return Levels: A Target MOTAD Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2016

Sukant K. Misra  and
Stan R. Spurlock
Sukant K. Misra
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Georgia Experiment Station, University of Georgia
Stan R. Spurlock
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
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Abstract

Given an equipment complement, a specific crop mix has a probability distribution for whole-farm net returns. Increasing crop acreage while holding the set of equipment constant will reduce fixed costs per acre, but it will also increase the length of time required to complete crucial field operations such as planting and harvesting. Thus, the probability of encountering weather-related delays in fieldwork will increase. This increase in delays may cause a decline in yields and changes in the distribution of net returns. This paper develops a Target MOTAD model capable of capturing intra-year impacts on profit that arise from the timing of planting and harvesting operations as well as inter-year impacts on profits that are due to variations in economic and weather-related factors. The model relies on estimates of available fieldwork time and a crop's harvestable yield in different time periods throughout the harvest season.

Keywords

crop mixriskyield curveTarget MOTADbiophysical simulation
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 23 , Issue 2 , December 1991 , pp. 9 - 18
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1991

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