Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T05:31:11.776Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Challenges in Modeling the Effects of Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Patrick Westhoff
Affiliation:
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO
Jacinto Fabiosa
Affiliation:
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
John Beghin
Affiliation:
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University
William Meyers
Affiliation:
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO
Get access

Abstract

Major issues and challenges encountered in modeling and analyzing agricultural and trade policy reforms are reviewed. We focus on modeling approach and pay special attention to the type and scope of models, calibration of a realistic baseline scenario, representation of the reform agreement, use of extramodel information, choice of metrics to measure reform impacts, and emerging issues in policy modeling. Existing solutions and unresolved issues are examined. We stress the complementarity of various modeling approaches in assessing policy reforms and the importance of helping users understand the limitations of the chosen approach.

Type
Invited Paper Sessions
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2004

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Beghin, J., and Bureau, J.C.. “Quantitative Policy Analysis of Sanitary, Phytosanitary and Technical Barriers to Trade.Economie Internationale 87(2001):107–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beghin, J., El Osta, B., Cherlow, J., and Mohanty, S.. “The Cost of the U.S. Sugar Program Revisited.International Sugar Journal 105(2003):293303.Google Scholar
Binfield, J., Donnellan, T., Hanrahan, K., and Westhoff, P.. “The Impact of WTO Export Subsidy Reductions on Agricultural Output, Prices, and Farm Income in Ireland.” FAPRI-Ireland Outlook 2001: Medium-Term Analysis for the Agri-Food Sector, pp. 80103. Dublin: Teagasc, April 2001.Google Scholar
Bora, E., Kuwahara, A., and Laird, S.. “Quantification of Non-Tariff Measures.” Geneva: UNC-TAD Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities, Study Series No. 18, 2002.Google Scholar
Britz, W., and Schmidhuber, J.. “2030: A First Step Towards a Modelling System for FAO's Long-Term Projections for World Agriculture.” Liberalisierung des Weltagrarhandels- Strategien und Konsequenzen, Band 37. Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaus E.V., Brockmeier, M.F., Isermeyer, F., and Cramon-Taubadel von, S., eds. Münster-Hiltrup: Landwirtschaftsverlag, 2002.Google Scholar
Deardorff, A.V., and Stern, R.M.. Measurement of Nontariff Barriers: Studies in International Economics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Gorter, H., and Hranaiova, J.. “Quota Administration Methods: Economics and Effects with Trade Liberalization.” Agriculture and the WTO: Creating a Trade System for Development. Ingco, M. and Nash, J.D., eds. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 2004.Google Scholar
de Gorter, H., Ingco, M., and Ignacio, L.. “Market Access: Economics and the Effects of Policy Instruments.” Agriculture and the WTO: Creating a Trade System for Development. Ingco, M. and Nash, J.D., eds. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 2004.Google Scholar
Dixit, A.K., and Norman, V.. “Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition.” The Theory of International Trade. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1980.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). “The House and Senate Farm Bills: A Comparative Study.” Policy Working Paper No. 01-02, FAPRI, University of Missouri, Columbia, and Iowa State University, Ames, 2002.Google Scholar
Goldin, I., and Knudsen, O., eds. Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Implications for Developing Countries. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and Washington, DC: World Bank, 1990.Google Scholar
Goldin, I., and van der Mensbrugghe, D.. “Agricultural Tarrification under the Uruguay Round.” The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries. Martin, W. and Winters, L.A., eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996.Google Scholar
Hart, C.A., and Babcock, B.A.. “U.S. Farm Policy and the WTO: How Do They Match Up?The Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy 3(2002):119–39.Google Scholar
Helmar, M.D., Meyers, W.H., and Hayes, D.J.. “GATT and CAP Reform: Different, Similar, or Redundant?Agricultural Trade Conflicts and GATT. Anania, V., Carter, C.A., and McCalla, A.E, eds. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994.Google Scholar
Hertel, T.W, ed. Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997.Google Scholar
Just, R.E.Addressing the Changing Nature of Uncertainty in Agriculture.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83,5(2001):1131–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meilke, K.D., McClatchy, D., and de Gorter, H.. “Challenges in Quantitative Economic Analysis in Support of Multilateral Trade Negotiations.Agricultural Economics 14,3(1996):185200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orden, D., Paarlberg, R., and Roe, T.. Policy Reform in American Agriculture: Analysis and Prognosis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.Google Scholar
Skully, D.W.Economics of Tariff-Rate Quota Administration.” Technical Bulletin No. 1893. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 2001.Google Scholar
Sumner, D.A., and Wohlgenant, M.K.. “Effects of an Increase in the Federal Excise Tax on Cigarettes.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67,2(1985):235–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank. “Global Economic Prospects 2004.” Realizing the Development Promise of the Doha Agenda. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2003.Google Scholar