Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-42gr6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T06:46:17.661Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 May 2017

Get access

Abstract

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), more popularly known as “drones,” have become emblematic of twenty-first century military technologies but scholars have yet to convincingly explain the drivers of UAV proliferation. Using the first systematic data set of UAV proliferation, this research note examines the spread of UAVs in the context of scholarly debates about interests versus capacity in explaining policy adoption. The results yield important insights for both IR scholarship and the policy-making community. While countries that experience security threats—including territorial disputes and terrorism—are more likely to seek UAVs, drone proliferation is not simply a function of the threat environment. We find evidence that democracies and autocracies are more likely than mixed regimes to develop armed UAV programs, and suggest that autocracies and democracies have their own unique incentives to acquire this technology. Moreover, supply-side factors play a role in the UAV proliferation process: a state's technological capacity is a strong predictor of whether it will obtain the most sophisticated UAVs. The theories and evidence we present challenge emerging views about UAV proliferation and shed useful light on how and why drones spread.

Type
Research Notes
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bodea, Cristina, and Hicks, Raymond. 2015. International Finance and Central Bank Independence: Institutional Diffusion and the Flow and Cost of Capital. The Journal of Politics 77 (1):268–84.Google Scholar
Boyle, Michael. 2015. The Race for Drones. Orbis 59 (1):7694.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel. 2013. Why Drones Work. Foreign Affairs 92 (4):3243.Google Scholar
Caverley, Jonathan D. 2014. Democratic Militarism: Voting, Wealth, and War. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cenciotti, David. 2013. US F-22 Stealth Fighter Pilot Taunted Iranian F-4 Phantom Combat Planes Over the Persian Gulf. The Aviationist, 19 September. Available at <http://theaviationist.com/2013/09/19/f-22-f-4-intercept/>..>Google Scholar
Cochrane, Joe. 2014. At Asia Air Show, Plenty of Competition for Sale of Drones. The New York Times, 16 February.Google Scholar
Cronin, Audrey K. 2013. Why Drones Fail. Foreign Affairs 92 (4):4454.Google Scholar
Davis, Lynn E., McNerney, Michael J., Chow, James S., Hamilton, Thomas, Harting, Sarah, and Byman, Daniel. 2014. Armed and Dangerous? UAVs and US Security. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
Department of Defense. 2013. Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap: FY2013-2038. Washington, DC: DOD.Google Scholar
Early, Bryan R. 2014. Exploring the Final Frontier: An Empirical Analysis of Global Civil Space Proliferation. International Studies Quarterly 58 (1):5567.Google Scholar
Fuhrmann, Matthew. 2012. Atomic Assistance: How “Atoms for Peace” Programs Cause Nuclear Insecurity. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Gady, Franz-Stefan. 2015. Vietnam Reveals New Drone for Patrolling the South China Sea. The Diplomat, 28 December. Available at <http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/vietnam-reveals-new-drone-for-patrolling-the-south-china-sea/>..>Google Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 2001. Democracy and the Preparation for War: Does Regime Type Affect States’ Anticipation of Casualties? International Studies Quarterly 45 (3):467–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Wright, Joseph, and Frantz, Erica. 2014. Autocratic Regimes and Transitions. Perspectives on Politics 12 (2):313–31.Google Scholar
Gilli, Andrea, and Gilli, Mauro. 2016. The Diffusion of Drone Warfare? Industrial, Organizational and Infrastructural Constraints: Military Innovations and the Ecosystem Challenge. Security Studies 25 (1):5084.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristain S., and Ward, Michael D.. 2006. Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization. International Organization 60 (4):911–33.Google Scholar
Heyns, Christof. 2013. Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary or Arbitrary Executions. 69th Session. New York: UN General Assembly.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael. 2010. The Diffusion of Military Power: Causes and Consequences for International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Kreps, Sarah E., and Fuhrmann, Matthew. 2016. Separating Fact from Fiction in the Debate over Drone Proliferation. International Security 41 (2):742.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan C., and Ellis, Cali M.. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Irish, John, and Pennetier, Marine. 2013. France to Use Unarmed US-Made Drones to Hunt al Qaeda in Mali. Reuters, 19 December. Available at <http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mali-france-drones-idUSBRE9BI0VY20131219>..>Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1978. Cooperation under the Security Dilemma. World Politics 30 (2):167214.Google Scholar
Johnston, Patrick B. 2012. Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns. International Security 36 (4):4779.Google Scholar
Keck, Zachary. 2014. Pakistan Seeks Chinese Drones? The Diplomat, 20 May. Available at <http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/pakistan-seeks-chinese-drones/>..>Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason, and Wilson, Isaiah. 2009. Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars. International Organization 63 (1):67106.Google Scholar
Lynch, Laura. 2012. Pakistan Building Its Own Drones. Public Radio International, 13 April. Available at <http://www.pri.org/stories/2012-04-13/pakistan-building-its-own-drones>..>Google Scholar
Marshall, Mony G., Ted R. Gurr, and Jaggers, Keith. 2015. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2015. Available at <http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2015.pdf>..>Google Scholar
McCaney, Kevin. 2014. Army to Put High Quality Radar into Smaller Drones. Defense Systems, 2 September. Available at <https://defensesystems.com/articles/2014/09/02/army-synthetic-aperture-radar-small-uavs.aspx>..>Google Scholar
Pearson, Natalie O., and Mangi, Faseeh. 2015. Pakistan Joins Exclusive Drone Club, with Nod to China. Bloomberg Business, 10 September. Available at <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/pakistan-joins-exclusive-drone-warfare-club-with-nod-to-china>..>Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1984. The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1993. Nationalism, the Mass Army, and Military Power. International Security 18 (2):80124.Google Scholar
Rogers, Everett M. 2003. Diffusion of Innovations. 5th ed. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Rosen, Stephen Peter. 1991. Winning the Next War: Innovation and the Modern Military. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Sechser, Todd S., and Saunders, Elizabeth N.. 2010. The Army You Have: The Determinants of Military Mechanization, 1979–2001. International Studies Quarterly 54 (2):481511.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., Dobbin, Frank, and Garrett, Geoffrey, eds. 2008. The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., and Starr, Harvey. 1990. Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War. American Political Science Review 84 (1):4767.Google Scholar
Stinnett, Douglas M., Tir, Jaroslav, Schafer, Philip, Diehl, Paul F., and Gochman, Charles S.. 2002. The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3. Conflict Management and Peace Science 19 (2):5968.Google Scholar
Stohl, Rachel, Brooks, Rosa, and Abizaid, John P.. 2014. Recommendations and Report of the Task Force On US Drone Policy. Washington, DC: Stimson Center.Google Scholar
Talmadge, Caitlin. 2015. The Dictator's Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Tatlow, Didi K. 2014. China Said to Deploy Drones After Unrest in Xinjiang. The New York Times, 19 August. Available at <http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/08/19/china-said-to-deploy-drones-after-unrest-in-xinjiang>..>Google Scholar
Tekle, Tesfa-Alem. 2013. Ethiopia Produces First Military Drone Aircraft. Sudan Tribune, 14 February. Available at <http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article45518>..>Google Scholar
Tucker, Patrick. 2014. Every Country Will Have Armed Drones Within Ten Years. Defense One, 6 May. Available at <http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/05/every-country-will-have-armed-drones-within-ten-years/83,878/>..>Google Scholar
Way, Christopher R., and Weeks, Jessica L.. 2014. Making it Personal: Regime Type and Nuclear Proliferation. American Journal of Political Science 58 (3):705–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weeks, Jessica L. 2008. Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve. International Organization 62 (1):3564.Google Scholar
Whittle, Richard. 2011. Predator's Big Safari. Arlington, VA: Mitchell Institute Press.Google Scholar
Work, Robert O. 2015. Deputy Secretary of Defense Speech at CNAS Defense Forum, 14 December. Available at <https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech-View/Article/634214/cnas-defense-forum>..>Google Scholar
Bank, World. 2016. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Zenko, Micah, and Kreps, Sarah. 2014. Limiting Armed Drone Proliferation — Council Special Report No. 69. Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations Press.Google Scholar
Zhukov, Yuri M., and Stewart, Brandon M.. 2013. Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relations. International Studies Quarterly 57 (2):271–87.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material

Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material 1

Download Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material(File)
File 176.7 KB
Supplementary material: File

Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material

Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material 2

Download Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material(File)
File 11.5 KB
Supplementary material: File

Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material

Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material 3

Download Fuhrmann and Horowitz supplementary material(File)
File 58.5 KB