Casman, E.A., Morgan, M.G., and Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). “Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models,” Risk Analysis, 19(1), pp. 33–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Clark, H.H. (1990). “Comment,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 12–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Clark, W.C. (1980). “Witches, Floods and Wonder Drugs,” in Schwing, R.C. and Albers, W.A., Jr. (eds.), Societal Risk Assessment, Plenum, pp. 287–318.Google Scholar

Cliff, N. (1990). “Comment,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 16–18.Google Scholar

Cyert, R.M. and DeGroot, M.H. (1987). Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory, Rowman & Littlefield, 206pp.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Dawes, R.M. (1988). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 346pp.Google Scholar

DeKay, M.L., Small, M.J., Fischbeck, P.S., Farrow, R.S., Cullen, A., Kadane, J.B., Lave, L.B., Morgan, M.G., and Takemura, K. (2002). “Risk-Based Decision Analysis in Support of Precautionary Policies,” Journal of Risk Research, 5(4), pp. 391–417.Google Scholar

Dieckmann, N.F., Peters, E. and Gregory, R. (2015). “At Home on the Range? Lay Interpretations of Numerical Uncertainty Ranges,” Risk Analysis, 35(7), pp. 1281–1295.Google Scholar

Dowlatabadi, H. and Morgan, M.G. (1993). “A Model Framework for Integrated Studies of the Climate Problem,” Energy Policy, 21(3), pp. 209–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Ellsberg, D. (1961). “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75, pp. 643–669.Google Scholar

EPA (1996). Proposed Guidelines for Cancer Risk Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600P-92/003C.Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1991). “Value Elicitation: Is There Anything in There?,” American Psychologist, 46, pp. 835–847.Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (2005). “Chapter 18: Cognitive Processes in Stated Preference Methods,” in Mäleer, K.-G. and Vincent, J.R. (eds.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, Elsevier, Vol. II, pp. 938–968.Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (2012). “Communicating Uncertainty: Fulfilling the Duty to Inform,” Issues in Science and Technology, 28(4), pp. 63–70.Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., and Jacobs-Quadrel, M. (2002). “Risk Perception and Communication,” in Detels, R., McEwen, J., Reaglenhole, R., and Tanaka, H. (eds.), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, 4th ed., Oxford University Press, Vol. III, pp. 1105–1123.Google Scholar

Franklin, B. (1789). Letter to Jean-Baptiste Leroy.Google Scholar

Friedman, S.M., Dunwoody, S., and Rogers, C.L. (1999). Communicating Uncertainty: Media Coverage of New and Controversial Science, L. Erlbaum, 277pp.Google Scholar

Funtowicz, S.O. and Ravetz, J.R. (1990). Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 229pp.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Good, I.J. (1962). “How Rational Should a Manager Be?” Management Science, 8(4), pp. 383–393.Google Scholar

Gregory, R. (2001). “Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts,” in Armstrong, J.S. (ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer, 849pp.Google Scholar

Henrion, M. (1999) “Uncertainty,” in Wilson, R.A. and Keil, F.C. (eds.), MIT Encyclopedia of the Cognitive Sciences, MIT Press, pp. 853–855.Google Scholar

Howard, R.A. and Matheson, J.E. (eds.) (1977). Readings in Decision Analysis, Decision Analysis Group, SRI International.Google Scholar

Ibrekk, H. and Morgan, M.G. (1987). “Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Nontechnical People,” Risk Analysis, 7, pp. 519–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Inman, D.L., Jenkins, S.A., and Wasyl, J. (1998). “Database for Streamflow and Sediment Flux of California Rivers,” SIO Reference 98–9. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego.Google Scholar

IPCC (2001a). “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis,” in Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 881pp.Google Scholar

IPCC (2001b). “Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,” in McCarthy, J.J. et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1032pp.Google Scholar

IPCC (2001c). “Climate Change 2001: Mitigation,” in Metz, B. et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 700pp.Google Scholar

IPCC (2004). “Workshop Report,” in Manning, M. et al. (eds.), Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options, 146pp. Available at: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/ipcc-workshop-2004-may.pdf.Google Scholar

IPCC (2007). “The Physical Science Basis,” in Solomon, S. et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 800pp.Google Scholar

Kadane, J.B. (1990). “Comment: Codifying Chance,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 18–20.Google Scholar

Keeney, R.L. (1982). “Decision Analysis: An Overview,” Operations Research, 30, pp. 803–837.Google Scholar

Keeney, R.L. (1992). Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making, Harvard University Press, 416pp.Google Scholar

Kent, S. (1964). “Words of Estimative Probability,” Studies in Intelligence, 8(4), pp. 49–65.Google Scholar

Knight, F.H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Houghton Mifflin Company, 381pp.Google Scholar

Kruskal, W. (1990). “Comment,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 20–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Kuhn, T.S. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, 172pp.Google Scholar

Lee, K. (1993). Compass and Gyroscope: Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment, Island Press, 243pp.Google Scholar

Lempert, R.J., Groves, D.G., Popper, S.W., and Bankes, S.C. (2006). “A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios,” Management Science, 52(4), pp. 514–528.Google Scholar

Lempert, R.J., Popper, S.W., and Bankes, S.C. (2003). Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis, MR-1626-RPC, RAND, 209pp.Google Scholar

Lempert, R.J., Popper, S.W., Groves, D. et al. (2013). “Making Good Decisions Without Predictions,” RAND Corporation Research Highlights, 6pp. Only available online at: www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9701.html.Google Scholar

Lindblom, C.E. (1959). “The Science of ‘Muddling Through,’” Public Administration Review, 19(2), pp. 79–88.Google Scholar

Mandel, D.R. and Barnes, A. (2014). “Accuracy of Forecasts in Strategic Intelligence,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(30), pp. 10984–10989.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G. (1998). “Uncertainty Analysis in Risk Assessment,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 4, pp. 25–39.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G. with Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M., and Wilbanks, T. (2009). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product (CCSP 5.2), 89pp.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., and Atman, C.J. (2002). Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach, Cambridge University Press, 351pp.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G. and Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 332pp.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G., Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J., and Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). “Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change,” Climatic Change, 41, pp. 271–281.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G. and Keith, D. (1995). “Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts,” Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), pp. 468–476.Google Scholar

Morgan, M.G. and Keith, D. (2008). “Improving the Way We Think about Projecting Future Energy Use and Emissions of Carbon Dioxide,” Climatic Change, 90(3), pp. 189–215.Google Scholar

Morris, S.C. (1990). Cancer Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach, M. Dekker, 408pp.Google Scholar

Moss, R. and Schneider, S.H. (2000). “Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations to Lead Authors for More Consistent Assessment and Reporting,” in Pachauri, R. et al. (eds.), Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, World Meteorological Organisation, pp. 33–51.Google Scholar

Moss, R.H., Edmonds, J.A., Hibbard, K.A. et al. (2010). “The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment,” Nature, 463, pp. 747–756.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Mosteller, F. and Youtz, C. (1990). “Quantifying Probabilistic Expressions,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 2–12.Google Scholar

Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (eds.) (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, 612pp.Google Scholar

National Assessment Synthesis Team (2000). “Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change,” U.S. Global Change Research Program. Available at: www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/climate-change-impacts-united-states-potential-consequences-climate-variability-and.Google Scholar

National Research Council (1986a). Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, National Academy Press, 250pp.Google Scholar

National Research Council (1986b). Scientific Basis for Risk Assessment and Management of Uranium Mill Tailings, Committee on Uranium Mill Tailings Report, National Academy Press, 264pp.Google Scholar

Oreskes, N. and Conway, E.M. (2010). Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, Bloomsbury Press, 355pp.Google Scholar

Paté-Cornell, M.E. (1996). “Uncertainties in Risk Analysis: Six Levels of Treatment,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, pp. 95–111.Google Scholar

Patt, A.G. and Schrag, D.P. (2003.) “Using Specific Language to Describe Risk and Probability,” Climatic Change, 61, pp. 17–30.Google Scholar

Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management (1997). Vol. I: Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management; Vol. II: Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Regulatory Decision-Making. Available at: http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=55006.Google Scholar

Raiffa, H. and Schlaifer, R. (1968). Applied Statistical Decision Theory, MIT Press, 356pp.Google Scholar

Rumsfeld, D. (2002). News briefing as quoted by Shermer, M., Scientific American, 293, September 2005, p. 38.Google Scholar

Schweizer, V.J. and Kriegler, E. (2012). “Improving Environmental Change Research with Systematic Techniques for Qualitative Scenarios,” Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), p. 044011.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Schweizer, V.J. and Morgan, M.G. (2016), “Bounding U.S. Electricity Demand in 2050,” Technology Forecasting & Social Change, 105, pp. 215–223.Google Scholar

Shell International Limited (2005). Shell Global Scenarios 2025. Available at: www-static.shell.com/content/dam/shell/static/aboutshell/downloads/our-strategy/shell-global-scenarios/exsum-23052005.pdf.Google Scholar

Smil, V. (2003). Energy at the Crossroads, MIT Press, 448pp.Google Scholar

Smithson, M. (1988). Ignorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms, Springer-Verlag, 393pp.Google Scholar

Sunstein, C.R. (2005). Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle, Cambridge University Press, 234pp.Google Scholar

Tanur, J.M. (1990). “Comment: On the Possible Dangers of Isolation,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 21–22.Google Scholar

Thompson, M. (1980). “Aesthetics of Risk: Culture or Context,” in Schwing, R.C. and Albers, W.A. (eds.), Societal Risk Analysis, Plenum, pp. 273–285.Google Scholar

Tukey, J.W. (1977). Exploratory Data Analysis, Addison-Wesley, 688pp.Google Scholar

von Winterfeldt, D. and Edwards, W. (1986). Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge University Press, 624pp.Google Scholar

Wallsten, T.S. and Budescu, D.V. (1990). “Comment,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 23–26.Google Scholar

Wallsten, T.S., Budescu, D.V., Rapoport, A., Zwick, R., and Forsyth, B. (1986). “Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 155(4), pp. 348–365.Google Scholar

Weick, K. and Sutcliffe, K. (2001). Managing the Unexpected: Assuring High Performance in an Age of Uncertainty, Wiley, 200pp.Google Scholar

Wiener, J.B. and Rogers, M.D. (2002). “Comparing Precaution in the United States and Europe,” Journal of Risk Research, 5(4), pp. 317–349.Google Scholar

Wilbanks, T. and Lee, R. (1985) “Policy Analysis in Theory and Practice,” in Lakshmanan, T.R. and Johansson, B. (eds.), Large-Scale Energy Projects: Assessment of Regional Consequences, North-Holland, pp. 273–303.Google Scholar

Wildavsky, A. (1979). “No Risk Is the Highest Risk of All,” American Scientist, 67, pp. 32–37.Google Scholar

Winkler, R.L. (1990). “Comment: Representing and Communicating Uncertainty,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 26–30.Google Scholar

Wolf, C., Jr. (1990). “Comment,” Statistical Science, 5, pp. 31–32.Google Scholar