Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour
Means of transportation choice for the residents of Villavicencio, Colombia: A quantitative analysis
Introduction
The statistics provided by the Department of Mobility suggest that in 2008 there were 61,279 vehicles daily circulating through the streets of Villavicencio, a city of approximately 387 thousand people and located right in the center of Colombia. Out of all the vehicles passing by the city streets, 52,735 vehicles belong to private citizens, 7720 belong to the public service, 755 are official vehicles and the remaining, 69, are of unknown origin.1 According to the Ministry of Transport, from 2006 to 2009 the department of Meta presented an average annual increase of 48% of the registered vehicles and from 2009 to 2013 the number of vehicles in Villavicencio has increased by 19,375. This last increase is explained by a rise of 85% in the number of motorcycles. This situation resulted in increased road accidents, traffic congestion, environmental pollution and increased competition for public space among pedestrians, cyclists, drivers and passengers (Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2013).
The National Route 65, which passes through the city of Villavicencio, represents the road connecting the main oil production sites with the rest of the country. A number of heavy motorized vehicles, mainly trucks, day in and day out pass through the city to transport the hydrocarbons from the departments of the Llanos Orientales – Arauca, Casanare and Meta – where the oil is extracted to the departments of Meta and Putumayo where the refineries are located (Tasciotti, Alejo, & Romero, 2015). The discovery of oil wells in those three departments has resulted in an increase in the traffic congestion related problems, higher rate of road accidents, proliferation of parking areas in spaces otherwise destined to parks and an increase in the barrier effect.2
The constant expansion of the road infrastructures, theoretically created ad hoc in order to reduce the traffic congestion and to accommodate the increasing number of vehicles, does not always represents the best option due to the process of suburbanization which causes inefficiency in the delivery of public services (García López, 2012). In addition, the improvements in the road infrastructures may generate the growth of the motorization level in the medium and long term and the return to the initial condition of traffic congestion. Furthermore, according to Vasconcellos (1999), all those roads’ interventions have been made without taking into consideration other factors – e.g. the needs the pedestrians and the cyclists have as well as the role that environmental aspects may play – and they have increased the inequality in the use of public space and have produced exclusive urban environments.3 On the other hand, improvements in the systems of public transport, of the cycling and walking paths constitute a more consistent and efficient option even in view of the goals expressed by the Colombian State Law 1083, 2006, in relation to a more sustainable and cleaner mobility.4
This study represents a first step in understanding how individuals choose the transport mode in the area of urban Villavicencio and helps determining the link between the mean of transport chosen for everyday travel with the socioeconomic characteristics of the residents and the distance between residential areas and work areas. Understanding the determinants of the demand for transport is an important tool when there is the need of reducing traffic congestion and of strengthening the public transport in and around the city; furthermore, it can help reducing the spillover effects related to the traffic congestion and it represents a valid tool that can be used by policy makers and Government representatives to propose and implement changes.
This study is organized as follows. Section 2 proposes a review of the existing literature on the demand for transport services and of the application of probabilistic models – e.g. the multinomial logit models – to explain the process of choosing the mean of transport for everyday travels. Section 3 illustrates the sources and the main features of the data used. Section 4 proposes some descriptive statistics; the results of the empirical analysis are presented in Section 5. Section 6 highlights the main implications of the results and Section 7 concludes.
Section snippets
Review of literature on transport modal choice
The municipality of Villavicencio has experienced a significant population growth in the last 30 years; according to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), the number of people living in the urban area of Villavicencio grew from about 200 thousand in mid-1980 to 387 thousand in 2008.5 This growth has been explained by the
Data
The data used in this study come from the ‘Encuesta domiciliaria origen-destino’ conducted by the National Planning Department (DNP)8 in 2008 and which represented an attempt made by the Colombian government to better understand the traffic situation in the country.
Descriptive statistics
The citizens of Villavicencio, as those of many other cities, mainly travel for reasons related to their work; the decision regarding the type of vehicle used depends on their income level, their gender, age and family status. According to Ivarsson & Associates & Logitrans (2008), about 80% of all the vehicles passing through the city of Villavicencio are either four or two wheels – i.e. motorcycle – vehicles; despite this, the data of this study show that 70% of people still walk, use the
Empirical analysis: modal choice specification
A discrete choice model – specifically a model of multimodal choice called unordered logit multinomial – will be used in what follows in order to determine the relationship between the choice of the mean of transport on one side and the characteristics of the trip and of the user on the other side. The choice of the model lays into the fact that it can predict, with a discrete level of accuracy, the probability that an individual chooses a mean of transport rather than another one conditioned
Discussions
The results of multinomial logit model show the incidence each explanatory variable has on the probability that the inhabitants of Villavicencio substitute walking – chosen as the base option in the model – with the use of different transportation modes. The econometric results are presented in Table 3.
It is important to highlight the fact that this study constitutes the very first attempt to study the choice of the transport mode in Villavicencio. Previous studies focusing on the modes of
Conclusion
In the last decade, the city of Villavicencio has experienced a significant growth in both the population and the income level which, combined to the lack of appropriate urban planning, has resulted in spontaneous urbanization processes and in substantial and non-controlled increase in the motorization level – with the number of motorcycles having rapidly rising in the last decade. All those factors have been responsible for a series of spillovers effects such as traffic congestion, road
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2021, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary PerspectivesCitation Excerpt :They concluded that the first approach is a useful addition to the state-of-the-art. Based on the data from the survey ‘Encuesta domiciliaria origen-destino’ conducted in the municipality of Villavicencio, central Colombia in 2008, Romero et al. (2017) analyzed the mode choices of the residents in Villavicencio for their daily needs. The age, socioeconomic level, time and cost of the journey are most related to the mode choices.
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