The source and nature of general purpose technologies for supporting next K-waves: Global leadership and the case study of the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.019

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volume 116, March 2017, Pages 331-339

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.019 Get rights and content

Highlights

•
General purpose technologies (GPTs) support upturn of K-waves, economic and social change.
•
Source of GPTs can be strategic (military) investments and goal of global leadership.
•
Global leadership-driven innovation can explain the emergence of new GPTs.
•
U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) is an innovative cellular phone network architecture of communications.
•
MUOS creates the next-generation narrowband satellite communications system.

Abstract

A fundamental problem in the field of the technological studies is to explain the source and nature of general purpose technologies (GPTs) that can support the patterns of long waves and socio-economic progress of nations. The study here confronts this problem by applying the theoretical framework of global leadership-driven innovations, which endeavors to clarify and to generalize whenever possible, the source and nature of a new GPT in a not-too-distant future. This study suggests that one of contributing factors that may support the next GPT is due to strategic investments for the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System (MUOS). This scientific and technological investment for U.S. military has the purpose to reinforce U.S. global leadership and, at the same time, can induce clusters of new technology in society. The MUOS is a constellation of ground-breaking satellites for next-generation narrowband tactical satellite communications system, which makes prior products obsolete (e.g., UHF Follow-On satellites). This technological system and related technological search for U.S. military are developing new information and communications technologies (ICTs) that are bringing the future of worldwide mobile satellite communications into reality. Overall, then, this study shows, by applying a new theory, some invariant factors of the source of GPTs and a possible new technological system for supporting long-run dynamics of current Kondratieff wave and future human development in society.

Graphical abstract

Global leadership-driven evolution of GPTs for the dynamics of K-waves.

Section snippets

A problem in technology studies: the source and nature of future general purpose technologies (GPTs)

Technological change has a great weight in supporting long waves, economic and social change (Ayres, 1990a, Ayres, 1990b, Linstone, 2004, Phillips, 2008, Phillips, 2011, Coccia, 2005a, Coccia, 2007, Coccia, 2008a, Coccia, 2014a, Coccia, 2014b). A great force of the technical change is new path-breaking innovations, which are due to breakthroughs, learning and cumulative change of specific technical knowledge (Nelson, 2008, Daim et al., 2013; cf. also, Cavallo et al., 2014a, Cavallo et al., 2015

Background context of the relation between path-breaking technologies and K-waves for economic and social change

The debate on the theory of Long Waves (LWs) or Kondratieff waves (K-waves) started in 1930s with the empirical evidence of the long-run time series of price levels presented by Kondratieff (1935). K-waves are long-term fluctuations of capitalistic systems that support economic and social change of inter-related nations (Linstone and Devezas, 2012). In particular, K-waves are patterns of 50 to 60 year cycles of recession-depression-recovery-prosperity, which show the economic dynamics of Western

The generalization of Ruttan's studies for the source of GPTs: the theory of global leadership-driven innovations

Ruttan (2006, p. 159ff) argues that the war may be one of contributing factors that generates general purpose technologies (GPTs), because the war induces a high mobilization of scientific, technical, and financial resources in specific environments. In particular, a major war, or threat of a major war, is a critical condition for political institutions of nations (and/or great powers) to commit the huge economic and human resources in sustaining new path-breaking technological trajectories

The source and nature of a new GPT: the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System (MUOS)

The theoretical framework presented in previous section is applied to explain the source of a new technological system⁷ that may lay the foundations for a possible GPT to support K-waves in a not-to-distant future.

As said, leading

Discussion

Why may MUOS platform and related scientific/technological search lay the foundations for a possible GPT for current and future K-waves?

Firstly, GPTs are originated by global leaders and MUOS is planned by a global leader: the USA. In fact, the United States is creating a new ground-breaking mobile communications satellites designed to provide tactical mobile communications to the U.S. military for strategic activities worldwide. The high mobilization of scientific, technical, and financial

Concluding observations

The main aim of this article is to clarify that the purpose of global leadership of great powers, combined with other socio-economic factors in specific environments, can be the source of GPTs and clusters of radical and incremental innovations. This study shows that the U.S. is investing a huge amount of economic and human resources in a ground-breaking communications system to reinforce its economic-war potential: the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System (MUOS), which is a constellation

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Mario Coccia is an economist (senior researcher) at the National Research Council of Italy and visiting scholar at Arizona State University. He has been research fellow at the Max Planck Institute of Economics and visiting professor at the Polytechnics of Torino and University of Piemonte Orientale (Italy). He has conducted research work at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Yale University, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (United Nations University-MERIT), RAND Corporation, University of Maryland, Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée (University of Strasbourg), Munk School of Global Affairs (University of Toronto), and Institute for Science and Technology Studies (University of Bielefeld). He has written extensively on economics of innovation and management of technology. His research publications include more than three hundred papers in several disciplines.

^☆: I gratefully acknowledge financial support from the CNR - National Research Council of Italy for my visiting at RAND Corporation (Washington office) and at Arizona State University in 2015 (grant 0072373-2014) where this research started. I thank the Library of RAND Corporation, George Mason University (Arlington Campus), Arizona State University and Library of Congress for scientific material provided on these topics. I also thank Richard Silberglitt, Cynthia R. Cook, Howard J. Shatz, S. Berner, T. U. Daim and R. S. Girven for helpful comments and suggestions to this study. This work is the sole responsibility of the author and is not necessarily the opinion of CNR, ASU and RAND Corporation. The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research discussed in this paper.

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From my perspectiveThe source and nature of general purpose technologies for supporting next K-waves: Global leadership and the case study of the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System☆

Highlights

Abstract

Graphical abstract

Section snippets

A problem in technology studies: the source and nature of future general purpose technologies (GPTs)

Background context of the relation between path-breaking technologies and K-waves for economic and social change

The generalization of Ruttan's studies for the source of GPTs: the theory of global leadership-driven innovations

The source and nature of a new GPT: the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System (MUOS)

Discussion

Concluding observations

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

J. Econ. Ann. Econ.

Agricultural Systems

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Energy Policy

Technology in Society

Technovation

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Technology in Society

Technol. Soc.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Leadersh. Q.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Leadersh. Q.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Organ. Dyn.

J. World Bus.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

Leadersh. Q.

Towards a system of systems concepts

Manag. Sci.

Towards a disequilibrium theory of endogenous economic growth

Environ. Resour. Econ.

Discussion of Devezas et al. article unconvinced about a 5th K-wave: a response to Devezas et al.

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.

The History of Technology

General purpose technologies

Strategy and market management of new product development: evidence from Italian SMEs

International Journal of Product Development

Destructive creation

Strategic management implications for the adoption of technological innovations in agricultural tractor: the role of scale factors and environmental attitude

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management

Likely Technological Trajectories in Agricultural Tractors by Analysing Innovative Attitudes of Farmers

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management

Purposive Behavior and Cybernetics

Soc. Forces

Satisfaction, work involvement and R&D performance

International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management

From my perspective
The source and nature of general purpose technologies for supporting next K-waves: Global leadership and the case study of the U.S. Navy's Mobile User Objective System☆