Original ResearchModeling of the ecological niches of the anopheles spp in Ecuador by the use of geo-informatic tools
Introduction
At present day a variety of diseases transmitted by vector and rodent-borne which are related with water and food-borne, respiratory infections or related to sudden temperature changes are increasingly associated with environmental changes that favor their appearance, reappearance or spreading and even in opposite way their temporary or permanent reduction or disappearance (Rotela et al., 2007, Tourre et al., 2008, Porcasi et al., 2012, Wu et al., 2016). Worldwide around 3.3 billion people are at risk of malaria, 30% of them are of high risk and around 200 million people are finally even infected with this disease (World Health Organization, 2015). While 80% of malaria cases occur in Africa, Latin America is not exempt where annually some 2.7 million people become infected. Malaria is endemic in the tropics, reaching some 90% of all infections in the Amazon basin and with less proportion in Central America and southern Mexico (San Sebastián et al., 2000, Rodríguez et al., 2003, Hakre et al., 2004). While the risk of infection is relatively low in large cities, such risk is higher in rural areas of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela (Mendez et al., 2000, Snow et al., 2005, Yalcindag et al., 2012).
Although Ecuador is located in an equatorial area, it has a great diversity of climates due to a varied topography and the influence of marine currents such as Humboldt and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Kovats, 2000, Berz et al., 2001, Gallup et al., 2003, Hales et al., 2003, Toulkeridis, 2013, Toulkeridis and Zach, 2016); therefore, the presence of important tropical diseases such as malaria in the Ecuadorian terrain is relatively common due to its cyclical behavior which is closely related to climate and socioeconomic patterns. In Ecuador malaria causes direct and indirect economic losses affecting hereby mainly the poorest part of the society. Malaria mainly affects children and the economically active population, both groups are in the age range of 0–39 years old. Although there are no updated data in Ecuador on the economic impact of malaria calculations, a study carried out by Ruiz and Roeger in 1994 determined that such loss corresponded to a 16 to 20.8% of the basic monthly salary for each person infected with malaria (Ruiz and Roeger, 1994).
The modeling of ecological niche and associated species is a topic which in recent years gained worldwide a significant relevance due to the great potential of given applications, which highlights the vector-borne research of parasitic diseases (Gubler, 1998, Bergquist, 2001, Hunter, 2003, Peterson and Shaw, 2003, Moffett et al., 2007, Lafferty, 2009, González et al., 2010, Kulkarni et al., 2010). Within this context, research in Ecuador about such vector-borne diseases and their modeled distributions has been scarce to none, due to the fact that there has been either lack of information, inexperience on the subject or the absence of resources. Therefore, our main aim in this study has been to obtain the potential knowledge of the modeled geographical distribution of the ecological niche of the malaria vector (Anopheles spp) in this tropical territory, which may serve as an input for territorial management and planning in the control and eradication of diseases caused by such vectors.
Section snippets
Methodology
The core of this study has been the methodology used. Therefore, we have taken into consideration a number of different steps to describe detailed the methodological framework used in the process to accomplish with the main objectives of this research, namely, the collection of the data and how we processed them as well as the application of the three different ecological niche models. The methodological framework demonstrating all stages of this research is presented in Fig. 1.
Results and discussion
In order to choose the best fitting model of the ecological niche for Anopheles spp, we performed comparisons and statistical tests, which were applied to all three models.
Conclusions
This study has been able to highlight the importance of geospatial research focused on the biological and epidemiological field as it allows a good and quick overview for a subsequent useful contribution to regional planning and public health. Nonetheless, one of the critical points to improve may be the quality of the model results is the selection of variables and quantify their contribution when trying to evaluate a phenomenon, hence the importance of a preliminary analysis of environmental
Acknowledgments
We thank the Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE for logistic and financial support. We would like to express our thanks to Prof. Lawson for his editorial handling and also the two anonymous reviewers who improved significantly the manuscript with their extensive and constructive comments.
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