Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity
Graphical abstract
Introduction
Forest fire mitigation have gained attention over the years, being currently under the spotlight due to the uncertain effects of climate and socioeconomic changes. Expenditures in fire suppression and prevention are increasing globally, especially in fire-prone developed countries where a total fire exclusion policy is often implemented (Stephens et al., 2014). For instance, the US Federal Land Management bureau spent >2 billion $ in fire management during 2015 (Doerr and Santin, 2016). The annual budget in firefighting in the European Union raises to approximately 2.2 billion € (Faivre et al., 2018). In the case of Spain, one of the most fire affected countries within the European Mediterranean region currently ranking second in fire incidence only after Portugal (San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2017), fire suppression and prevention have been increasingly funded up to circa 78 million € in 2015 (MAPAMA, 2017). Therefore, it seems clear that firefighting agencies envisage a worsening fire danger scenario in the future, with more hazardous weather conditions increasingly threating human and environmental assets (Alcasena et al., 2019; Badia et al., 2011). For instance, fire incidence seems to be increasing in the Scandinavian countries. In 2018 this region experienced the warmest fire season within the recording period, which undoubtedly contributed to boost fire spread and overcome the extinction capacity (Martin Ruiz de Gordejuela and Puglisi, 2018). However, outside these exceptional cases, the current situation in those regions and countries historically affected by recurrent fires tells otherwise. In the Mediterranean Europe the observed number of fires and burned area is decreasing (Turco et al., 2016). At the same time, a remarkable decline in global fire-related emissions since 1930s is reported reaching the minimum in 2013 (Arora and Melton, 2018; Van Der Werf et al., 2017). One of the main reasons behind this trend relates to the fire exclusion policy, i.e., suppressing all wildfires in a region (Smith, 2000). Such policy considers that wildfires have negative impacts and consequently they must be suppressed by all means. Notwithstanding some authors believe the persistence of such policy will lead to increased large fire activity in the long-run due to substantial fuel accumulation (the so-called ‘fire paradox’, Otero and Nielsen, 2017; Regos et al., 2014; Westerling, 2016) in conjunction with drier and warmer conditions (Chaparro et al., 2016; Ruffault et al., 2017; Turco et al., 2017). At the same time, questions about its sustainability are starting to raise (Curt and Frejaville, 2018).
Projections of fire incidence into the future have been extensively addressed in the literature. They were usually conducted according to climate change scenarios mostly based on General Circulation Models (GCM) coupled to IPCC's emissions scenarios or Regional Climate Models (RCM). Conversely to the observed trend (overall decrease in fire incidence) most works leveraging climate models envisage increased fire activity through the XXI century. Without being exhaustive, an increment in burnt area was reported in Portugal (DaCamara et al., 2014), Canada (Hope et al., 2016), California (Westerling et al., 2011) or the Iberian Peninsula (Sousa et al., 2015); gross fire activity was expected to augment in Canada (Boulanger et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2015), Northeast China (Liu et al., 2012), Finland (Kilpeläinen et al., 2010). Similarly, some works foresee a global (Liu et al., 2010) or regional (Jolly et al., 2015; Moriondo et al., 2006; Wotton et al., 2017) raise in fire weather danger. Some studies point out diverse tendencies depending on the global regions (Krawchuk et al., 2009; Pechony and Shindell, 2010), or even opposite trends with increasing frequency and a stability or slight decrease in burnt area in the Northeast of Spain (Turco et al., 2014). Although the goal of this work is not criticize climate-based approaches, they mainly address long-term trends while often disregard suppression efforts in their prediction. Moreover, several authors have pointed out the bias found between GCM's simulations and observations (Maraun, 2012). Differences in precipitation and surface temperature between the present and future climates indicate that present-climate biases are systematically propagated into future-climate projections at regional scales (Liang et al., 2008). In the particular case of Spain, the correlation between fire weather danger and fire incidence has been found to be rather weak, with weather controlling the seasonal patterns but exerting limited influence in the observed trends (Jiménez-Ruano et al., 2019). In this sense, suppression-related features such as the time elapsed until fire brigades reach the fire site or the scattering of suppression media during simultaneous fire events control the success of the initial attack whereas fire weather relates to sporadic large fire events (Connor et al., 2017; Duane and Brotons, 2018; Rodrigues et al., 2019). Accordingly, we propose decoupling the temporal behavior of fire activity from other covariates (either climate or human related) to explore the near future evolution of wildfire features under the premise that their temporal behavior already integrates the influence of their underlying drivers. By doing so, we assume that weather conditions and human influence in wildfire activity would remain ‘stable’, i.e., they follow the same evolving trajectory and exert the same influence observed from past to current conditions as described in Rodrigues et al. (2020).
Among the few modeling techniques that allow to forecast time series of data, the most well-known and widespread are the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. ARIMA only requires a univariate time series to forecast its future evolution, although versions that are more sophisticated allow incorporating additional covariates. ARIMA models are best known for its performance in economics and marketing (Loi and Ng, 2018; Matyjaszek et al., 2019), but also, environmental studies, such as vegetation dynamics (Jiang et al., 2010) or climate change (Afrifa-Yamoah, 2015). There are also experiences of ARIMA modeling in wildfire science. In North-America, Preisler and Westerling (2007) employed ARIMA to forecast temperature 1-month ahead to evaluate fire danger whereas Miller and Safford (2012) explored trends in large high severity fires. In Spain, Boubeta et al. (2016) applied ARMA (ARIMA without the integrated component) to predict weekly burnt area in Galicia. However, to the best of our knowledge there was no experience assessing the mid-to-long term evolution of fire regime features using ARIMA or any other autoregressive technique, at least in Spain.
In this work, we developed and exemplified a framework to identify and outline fire regime regions over time. The proposed approach included for the first time a near-future prospective based on the ongoing evolution of fire regime features. In the case of Spain, fire regime zoning experiences are scarce, finding some examples in Jiménez-Ruano and et al. (2018), Montiel Molina and Galiana-Martín (2016) and Moreno and Chuvieco (2013). Nevertheless, these works provide a stationary picture of fire regimes without taking into account their temporal evolution. But fire incidence is non-stationary (Jiménez-Ruano et al., 2017; Silva et al., 2019), a feature that encourages embracing a temporal perspective in fire regime assessments. Our core methodology allowed to identify homogenous fire regime zones in three different time periods. Past (1974–1994) and current (1995–2015) situations were addressed using historical fire records from the Spanish fire database. A third period was set in the near-future (2016–2036) forecasted by means of ARIMA extending from the current period. We hypothesized that the immediate evolution of fire regime would follow the ongoing pathway, thus assuming that climatic and human drivers of fire activity (both related to ignition and suppression) remain stable towards the near future. Our main goals were to a) outline current and past fire regime zones, b) forecast their immediate future evolution, c) describe the most representative spatial and temporal trajectories of fire regimes and (e) evaluate the disruptive effects of the current fire suppression policy.
Section snippets
Study area
The study area covers the mainland Spain. See the companion work by Rodrigues et al. (2020) for further description of the region.
Data and methods
The proposed methodology was sequenced in three stages. First, we retrieved historical fire records in the period 1974–2015 and organized them in two separate datasets (1974–1994 and 1995–2015). Then, we forecasted the evolution of fire incidence in the near future (2016–2036) using ARIMA models. Finally, we identified fire regime typologies in the current period
Evolution of the fire regime features
Taking the historical period as baseline, future fire features showed a general decrease in their total values (Fig. 2). According to, Pearson's R2 coefficient between forecasted and observed fire features (Fig. 3), ARIMA predictions were reliable, capturing at least the 46% of variance (fire frequency) up to 76% in burned area. The coefficient of determination was consistently higher in the 30 × 30, compared to the original 10 × 10 km grid.
The overall decreasing trend in fire activity was also
Discussion
In this work, we conducted the multitemporal outline of homogeneous fire regime typologies and zones in mainland Spain to a) outline fire regime zones for past and current periods, b) predict their immediate future evolution, and c) analyze the main transitions in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. We aimed at improving the identification and definition of fire regimes in Spain, as well as providing insights into the effects the current of fire suppression policy. A better knowledge of the
Conclusions
The current research belongs to a series of two manuscripts aiming at describing spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime and its drivers in Spain. In this work, we proposed the first attempt to outline fire regime zones that incorporates a temporal perspective towards the near future. We investigated three different temporal spans. Two historical periods, i.e., past (1974–1994) and current (1995–2015), which were built from historical fires (>1 ha), and a third located in the future
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
Adrián Jiménez-Ruano and Marcos Rodrigues contributed equally to the development of this work. This work has been financed by the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports (FPU grant 13/06618) and partially by the Regional Government of Aragon (Geoforest research group S51_17R) co-financed with FEDER 2014-2020 “Construyendo Europa desde Aragon”. Marcos Rodrigues is a postdoctoral research fellow in the Juan de la Cierva program supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Finance (
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