Predicting the block-and-ash flow inundation areas at Volcán de Colima (Colima, Mexico) based on the present day (February 2010) status
Introduction
Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are hot, gravity-driven currents of solid volcanic particles and gas, which travel at high velocity (e.g. Carey, 1991, Druitt, 1998, Freundt and Bursik, 1998, Branney and Kokelaar, 2002, Sulpizio and Dellino, 2008), and can cause near-complete destruction of widespread areas (Tilling and Lipman, 1993). Since 1783 more than 50,000 people have been killed by PDCs (Tanguy et al., 1998). Their hazard is related to their temperature, particle concentration, missile content, dynamic pressure and ability to inundate and bury the environment under thick deposits. The interaction between the PDCs and the pre-existing natural and urban topography can strongly influence the currents behaviour and dispersion (e.g. Fisher, 1990, Fisher, 1995, Gurioli et al., 2002, Gurioli et al., 2005, Baxter et al., 2005, Sulpizio and Dellino, 2008), complicating the assessment of the related hazards. Even in distal locations the PDCs can still be very hot (e.g. Zanella et al., 2007, Sulpizio et al., 2008), have high velocity (e.g. Dellino et al., 2008) and have particle concentrations above asphyxiating levels (e.g. Baxter et al., 1998). Therefore, PDCs pose a serious threat to human life and property. All these features rank PDCs amongst the most devastating of all natural phenomena. For these reasons the assessment and mitigation of the PDC hazard is one of the main topics of present day volcanology.
The assessment of the areas impacted by past PDCs is one of the prime ways for providing spatial information required in territorial planning and emergency management. This follows the assumption that areas previously impacted by PDCs are likely to be affected again in future eruptions (e.g. Baxter et al., 1998, Nakada, 2000, Spence et al., 2004, Gurioli et al., in press). However, the use of geological information on PDCs deposits for delineating the area that could be potentially inundated by future PDCs (e.g. Crandell et al., 1984, Wolfe and Pierson, 1995, De la Cruz-Reyna and Carrasco-Núñez, 2002, Petterson et al., 2003, Mastrolorenzo et al., 2006, Di Vito et al., 2009) poses some problems in the estimation of the area actually affected by pyroclastic deposition. This is because geological data generally encompass various eruptions, each of them eventually affecting a limited portion of the volcano and with different preservation in the geological record, and do not take into account the present day morphology.
To consider all the areas affected in the past by PDC deposition as potentially subjected to inundation in the future would be a conservative approach, which takes into account all the eruptive dynamics and intensities that have occurred in the past. This method has the advantage of delimiting dangerous areas for Civil Protection purposes. However, it poses serious problems when dealing with the ranking of the different zones for PDC inundation, and for prioritising their evacuation in case of a volcano crisis. In order to maximize the efficiency of Civil Protection plans and to limit the negative feedback on the local economy, hazard zonation must be based on different eruptive scenarios with associated probability of occurrence. In other words, hazard zonation needs to cover all possible eruption intensities and dynamics, but the state of the volcano indicates the most probable event to be considered for short-term risk management. The ranking procedure is particularly efficient for concentrated PDCs, like block-and-ash flows (BAFs) from dome explosion or collapse, which can be easily channelled into the existing drainage network. For this reason, the use of statistically constrained semi-empirical methods that deal with the motion and deposition of granular-dominated flows (e.g. Widiwijayanti et al., 2009) and computer codes (Savage and Hutter, 1989, Takahashi and Tsujimoto, 2000, Denlinger and Iverson, 2001, Iverson and Denlinger, 2001, Patra et al., 2005, Sheridan et al., 2005, Kelfoun et al., 2009) can be more appropriate for identifying the potential areas of inundation and for delineating hazardous zones.
The recent eruptive activity of Volcán de Colima (Fig. 1) has been characterised by repetitive growing and collapse of a summit dome, which generated PDCs that have inundated the upper slopes of the volcano and engulfed the deep and incised valleys at the base of the main cone (Fig. 2a). The last major PDC-generating explosion occurred in September 2005 (Varley et al., in review). It closed the 2004–2005 period of activity of the volcano, and completed the dismantling of the summit dome (Macías et al., 2006). Since early 2007 a new dome has slowly grown in the funnel-shaped crater on the volcano's summit (Stevenson and Varley, 2008). Currently (February 2010) the new dome has completely filled the western side of the summit crater and overflow of the rim is forthcoming (Fig. 2b). In light of the present state of the volcano, a dome collapse/explosion that triggers a new cycle of PDC generation is highly probable and increases with time as the summit dome is progressively filling the crater. Therefore, in order to mitigate the related volcanic hazard and risk, accurate forecasting of areas possibly inundated by forthcoming PDCs at Volcán de Colima is critical.
This paper deals with the simulation of possible future block-and-ash flows at Colima volcano using the TITAN2D software (Patra et al., 2005). Running TITAN2D for PDCs of different volumes emplaced between 1991 and 2005, and which were generated by both dome collapse (Merapi-type) and dome explosion (Soufriere-type) eruptive dynamics, was carried out to set the simulation parameters. The simulations are carried out over a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) with a horizontal resolution of 5 m (Dávila et al., 2007). Further simulations were run assuming that the present day (February 2010) dome volume would be ejected during a single explosion that generates Soufriere-type PDCs or for a Merapi-type gravitational collapse. The impact of associated ash clouds was assessed through the Energy Cone model (Malin and Sheridan, 1982), and enlarges the area potentially affected by PDC inundation, in agreement with historic data (Rodríguez-Elizarrarás et al., 1991, Saucedo et al., 2002, Saucedo et al., 2005). The presented maps represent an up-to-date scenario for block-and-ash flow deposition in the near future at Volcán de Colima.
Section snippets
Overview of the recent activity and some considerations about the present state (February 2010) of Volcán de Colima
Volcán de Colima (19°31 N; 103°37 W; 3860 m a.s.l.) is located within the western portion of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and constitutes the southern part of the Colima Volcanic Complex (Fig. 1). It is the most active volcano in Mexico, and has produced approximately 50 eruptions since 1576 (Medina-Martinez, 1983, Luhr and Carmichael, 1990, De la Cruz-Reyna, 1993, Komorowski et al., 1997, Saucedo-Girón and Macías-Vázquez, 1999, Bretón et al., 2002, Saucedo et al., 2005, Cortés et al., 2010).
Some sedimentological characteristics of PDC deposits from the 1991–2005 activity
The selected BAFs used for setting the TITAN2D parameters are dominantly valley pond deposits that show similar sedimentological characteristics. They are massive, poorly sorted, with a medium coarse-grained matrix, and reverse grading of larger clasts (Fig. 3). Sedimentary structures (clast bedding and or imbrication, stratification of finer beds, etc.) have never been observed, as well as abundant fine matrix supporting large clasts (Fig. 3). All these sedimentary characteristics indicate
Setting of the simulation parameters
TITAN2D is a program developed for simulating dry granular avalanches over DEMs assuming a continuum, deformable volume, parcels of which are driven downslope by gravity (Patra et al., 2005). The release 2.0.1 is here used for the computational routines. The input parameters for running simulations are: (1) the volume of the collapsed mass; (2) the basal friction angle; and (3) the internal frictional angle. Initial conditions such as the starting coordinates, orientation angle, initial
The assessment of the ash cloud inundation zone
The ash cloud accompanying the coarse-grained, concentrate basal underflow of BAFs generally behaves as a turbulent, dilute flow with high mobility. It can inundate high grounds not affected by the basal underflow and/or travel beyond the limits of the basal avalanche (Fig. 4c and d), causing immediate scorching and destruction (e.g. Baxter et al., 1998, Baxter et al., 2005, Widiwijayanti et al., 2009). Therefore it is essential to consider ash cloud occurrence in the development of hazard maps.
Some hazard considerations
Several hazard maps have been compiled for the Colima Volcano, based on two main approaches: (1) geological, based on field mapping of past deposits (Navarro and Cortés, 2003); and (2) numerical, based on simulation routines (Del Pozzo et al., 1996, Saucedo et al., 2005). In particular, Saucedo et al. (2005) produced a volcanic hazard map for BAF generation during both Merapi- and Soufriere-type activities. The map ranks three hazard zones, which were defined on the basis of field data and
Acknowledgements
RS acknowledges the support of CONACYT during the fieldwork and his stay in Mexico. We thank Luis Angel Rodríguez-Sedano for his help in processing image analysis. Two anonymous reviewers improved the clarity and the quality of the manuscript.
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