Elsevier

Vaccine: X

Volume 13, April 2023, 100249
Vaccine: X

Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvacx.2022.100249Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Highlights

  • We used an agent-based model to estimate the impact of more effective influenza vaccines.

  • Simulations included vaccine effectiveness ranging from 40 to 95%.

  • We also modeled the impact of increased or decreased vaccine uptake.

  • Highly effective vaccines would limit influenza burden.

  • Even modest increase in vaccine effectiveness had large impact on influenza burden.

Abstract

Introduction

Current influenza vaccines have limited effectiveness. COVID-19 vaccines using mRNA technology have demonstrated very high efficacy, suggesting that mRNA vaccines could be more effective for influenza. Several such influenza vaccines are in development. FRED, an agent-based modeling platform, was used to estimate the impact of more effective influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza burden.

Methods

Simulations were performed using an agent-based model of influenza that included varying levels of vaccination efficacy (40–95 % effective). In some simulations, level of infectiousness and/or length of infectious period in agents with breakthrough infections was also decreased. Impact of increased and decreased levels of vaccine uptake were also modeled. Outcomes included number of symptomatic influenza cases estimated for the US.

Results

Highly effective vaccines significantly reduced estimated influenza cases in the model. When vaccine efficacy was increased from 40 % to a maximum of 95 %, estimated influenza cases in the US decreased by 43 % to > 99 %. The base simulation (40 % efficacy) resulted in ∼ 28 million total yearly cases in the US, while the most effective vaccine modeled (95 % efficacy) decreased estimated cases to ∼ 22,000.

Discussion

Highly effective vaccines could dramatically reduce influenza burden. Model estimates suggest that even modest increases in vaccine efficacy could dramatically reduce seasonal influenza disease burden.

Keywords

Influenza
Agent-based modeling
Vaccine

Data availability

Data will be made available on request.

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