Ten-Year Cerebrovascular Disease Trend Occurrence by Population-based Stroke Registry in an Aging Japan Local Prefecture

Abstract

Background: Cerebrovascular diseases are a major cause of death for Japanese people, but up-to-date national or prefectural incidences are unknown. We calculated the last 10-year cerebrovascular diseases incidence in an aging local prefecture in Japan with 1.2 million inhabitants and used the data to predict the future incidence. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed inventory surveys from the Iwate Stroke Registry (data from the whole Iwate Prefecture) from 2008 to 2017. We compared age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates between the first half period from 2008 to 2012 and the last half period from 2013 to 2017. We used the incidence change rate and the forecasted population number to predict the future incidence. Results: In a decade, the age-adjusted cerebrovascular diseases incidence rate per 100,000 person-years in the Japan standard population decreased from 212.1 to 176.8 in men and from 123.1 to 97.0 in women. The age-specific incidence rates and the number of incidences of those younger than 55 years decreased only slightly, but those of people 55 years or older decreased. The total number of incidence in 2040 will decrease to two-thirds of the value in 2015, but the number of incidence of those 85 years and older will increase by 2040. Conclusions: The cerebrovascular diseases rate and number of incidence decreased during the last decade and will decrease in the future, but the incidence in the oldest-old will increase. Specific nursing care and social measures to treat cerebrovascular diseases in the oldest-old will be needed.