Forecasting the carbon footprint of road freight transport in 2020
Introduction
Concern has been mounting over the environmental impact of freight transport operations. Although tightening vehicle emission standards have been reducing exhaust emissions of noxious gasses, such as nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and particulate matter, attention has shifted to the growth in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the freight sector. National governments and the EU have set targets for reducing all these emissions and devised policy measures to cut the external costs of freight transport. To assess the net impact of these policy measures, however, it is necessary to establish what the business-as-usual (BAU) trends would be in the absence of any new government initiatives. The aim of this paper is to report on research undertaken in the UK to determine the baseline trends in logistics and supply chain management and associated environmental effects of road freight transport up to 2020.2
Globally, according to the Stern report, transport accounts for 14% of total greenhouse gas emissions, with three-quarters of these emissions from road transport (Stern, 2006). In the UK, road freight traffic is responsible for 22% of all CO2 emissions from the transport sector and roughly 6% of total domestic CO2 emissions (Department for Transport, 2006). It is estimated that in 2004 the UK freight transport sector emitted 33.7 million tonnes of CO2 with HGVs constituting 78.5% of this total (McKinnon, 2007a). Recent estimates by McKinnon and Piecyk (2009) suggest that road freight transport emitted between 18.6 and 25.8 million tonnes of CO2 in 2006, depending on the method of calculation and data sources used.
Latest observations suggest that global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere currently stand at 387 parts per million (ppm) and continue to grow at an annual rate of around 2 ppm (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009). Most national governments and international organisations are committed to keeping the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere within 450 ppm by 2050. This is still likely to cause a 2° increase in global temperature by 2100, but should avert ecological catastrophe and help to put the planet onto a longer term path to environmental sustainability (IPCC, 2007). Following advice from its Climate Change Committee (2008), the UK government has recently committed the country to an 80% reduction in total CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to the 1990 level.
It may not be necessary for every sector individually to cut its carbon emissions by 80%. Some may cut theirs by a greater margin, relieving the ‘decarbonisation’ pressure on others. If, however, the road freight sector were required to cut its CO2 emissions by 80%, its 18.6 million tonne CO2 footprint in 2006 would have to shrink to 3.8 million tonnes by 2050. To be on course to meet this extremely ambitious target, this sector will have to achieve substantial reductions in CO2 emissions by 2020. This paper examines the likelihood of this happening on a business-as-usual basis. It explores the many factors that affect the level of CO2 emissions from the freight sector and uses the expert judgement of a large sample of logistics specialists to forecast their combined impact on the carbon footprint of road haulage in 2020.
An analytical framework has been constructed to map the complex inter-dependence between economic performance, a series of logistics parameters and freight transport-related externalities (Fig. 1). The relationship between the weight of goods produced/consumed and freight-related CO2 emissions can be defined with reference to seven key variables. These variables are influenced by a range of logistics-related decisions, product characteristics and external factors. The decisions have been categorised into four groups in accordance with a classification originally proposed by McKinnon and Woodburn (1996) and subsequently adopted in other research projects. The key variables and the factors influencing them were explored during a series of seven focus group discussions with logistics specialists. On the basis of these discussions, a two-round Delphi survey was used to canvass the opinions of a larger and more diverse sample of logistics and supply chain experts to measure the direction and strength of future developments likely to determine the environmental performance of supply chains. This paper presents the results of the focus group consultation, the Delphi survey and a spreadsheet modelling exercise which combined the empirical results with official freight transport and environmental data obtained from government sources.
Section snippets
Methodology, research design and analysis
This research aimed to forecast a series of baseline trends in logistics and supply chain management and associated environmental effects of road freight transport up to 2020. Saaty and Boone (1990) list four approaches to forecasting: extrapolating past trends, analysing historical relationships and analogies, constructing future scenarios along with developing trajectories and building a consensus of expert opinion. In the UK detailed road freight statistics have been compiled and published
Importance of environmental concerns in logistical decision-making
In order to investigate the impact of global warming on supply chain practice, participants were asked to assess to what extent concern about climate change had forced their companies to modify their freight transport operations over the last 3 years and how they expected it to affect their logistics systems in the future. The answers for the 65% of respondents belonging to companies with a freight transport operation were rated on a five-point Likert scale where 0=not at all and 4=large extent
Factors influencing the environmental impact of road freight transport in 2020
A company's demand for road freight transport is the result of a series of decisions made at different levels within the corporate hierarchy. McKinnon and Woodburn, 1993, McKinnon and Woodburn, 1996 differentiated four levels of logistical decision-making within a company, each of which will influenced by a set of factors:
- •
Structural factors determining the number, location and capacity of factories, warehouses and other facilities in the logistics system.
- •
Commercial factors related to companies’
Effects on the carbon footprint of road freight transport in 2020
Fig. 1 shows how complex the inter-relationships are between the broad range of business trends which interact to determine freight traffic levels and related emissions. The likely effects of future changes in these trends were investigated by asking the Delphi panellists how the key logistics variables would change by 2020. Their responses have been used to calibrate a spreadsheet model constructed to forecast CO2 emissions from road freight transport in the UK.
Possible future scenarios
A spreadsheet model linking macro-economic variables, to freight-related CO2 emissions via a series of key logistics parameters was developed and initially calibrated with the current data. The Continuing Survey of Road Goods Transport (CSRGT) carried out annually by the UK Department for Transport was the main source of the data. Based on the survey results three scenarios were constructed (business-as-usual (BAU), optimistic and pessimistic) and fed into the model. The BAU scenario was based
Conclusions
Climate change and CO2 emissions are clearly becoming significant factors in logistical decision-making. Over 50% of companies involved in road freight transport operations are likely to see their activities affected by climate change concerns to a significant or large extent by 2015. This is expected to rise to over 80% by 2020.
Some long-established production and logistics trends which exert a strong influence on road freight demand, such as the centralisation of manufacturing and inventory,
References (43)
- et al.
Social responsibility and supply chain relationships
Transportation Research Part E
(2002) - et al.
Structured analogies for forecasting
International Journal of Forecasting
(2007) A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
(2003)- et al.
Estimating nonresponse bias in mail surveys
Journal of Marketing Research
(1977) - Committee on Climate Change, 2008. Building the Low Carbon Economy—The UK's Contribution to Tackling Climate Change,...
- et al.
Research approaches in logistics: trends and alternative future directions
International Journal of Logistics Management
(2007) - Department for Transport, 2006. Transport Statistics GB: 2006 Edition,...
- Department for Transport, 2007. Road Freight Statistics 2006,...
- Department for Transport, 2008a. Transport Statistics GB: 2008 Edition,...
- Department for Transport, 2008b. Road Freight Statistics 2007,...
Measure and control of non-response in a mail survey
European Journal of Marketing
An Assessment of Logistics Research Paradigms
The “white space” of logistics research: a look at the role of methods usage
Journal of Business Logistics
Web survey bias: sample or mode effect?
Journal of Marketing Management
Supply chain forecasting: collaborative forecasting supports supply chain management
Business Process Management Journal
Cited by (303)
Barriers to vehicle-sharing among NGOs during disaster relief operations: Findings from a developing country's perspective
2023, International Journal of Disaster Risk ReductionRepositioning shared bikes under low-carbon policies
2023, Computers and Industrial EngineeringBrazilian light vehicle fleet decarbonization scenarios for 2050
2023, Energy PolicyExamination of sustainability risk in freight shipping based on the theory of planned behavior with temporal analysis
2023, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review
- 1
Tel.: +44 131 451 3850; fax: +44 131 451 3498.